A game theoretic real options approach to corporate acquisitions : theory and evidence

The phenomenon of corporate acquisitions has been the subject of extensive research, but despite important advances in our understanding of these corporate events, many issues are still unclear. Our purpose in this thesis is to revisit the M&A subject using the real options paradigm. Even though this literature has been one of the most important recent developments in finance and economics, the application of its lessons to corporate acquisitions is still scarce. Using a game theoretic real option framework, we develop a model of corporate acquisitions. We incorporate imperfect information about synergy gains, strategic interaction among competing bidders, and between the acquirer and the target firm. Assuming the absence of managerial motives, the model is able to explain some empirical regularities that, thus far, have only been explained under the agency and hubris hypotheses. The undervaluation, asymmetric distribution of gains, and divestiture phenomena are natural results in our model. In a preliminary empirical test we find support for the prediction relating target gains to the target's undervaluation and volatility. Even though we do not intend to replace other competing theories of corporate acquisitions, we believe our model represents a valid alternative hypothesis that could help to improve our understanding of some stylized facts. The many still unexplored predictions from our model are an interesting area for future research

Negociaciones para la adquisición de los predios en el entorno del Parque Morelos. Proceso fallido de construcción de la villa oficial para los Juegos Panamericanos Guadalajara 2011

Trabajo en el que describe la interacción personalizada en más de 850 reuniones con dueños e inquilinos de casas habitación, así como con propietarios de comercios de la zona del Parque Morelos para la construcción de la villa oficial para los Juegos Panamericanos Guadalajara 2011. Durante el proceso, el cual duró dos años y representó más de 5 mil horas de trabajo, surgieron diferencias entre el equipo de trabajo encargado de las negociaciones en cuanto a la forma de acercamiento con las personas. En este reporte se revelan las dificultades de las negociaciones y los resultados, los cuales reflejan que el proceso de negociación entre gobernantes y gobernados es un asunto complejo en el que intervienen una gran diversidad de factores

Snow dynamics influence tree growth by controlling soil temperature in mountain pine forests

Snow dynamics are key to understanding tree growth in mountain forests and future response to climate change. However, precise monitoring of microclimate conditions and variables related to tree growth and functioning are lacking. To advance on those issues, snow cover and microclimate conditions, tree phenology, xylogenesis, intraannual radial growth and the concentration of sapwood and needle non-structural carbohydrates were intensively monitored in four Pinus uncinata forests along an altitudinal gradient over three years in a Pyrenean valley (NE Spain). Snow dynamics exerted strong influence on soil temperature and moisture, particularly before and during the early growing season. Soil temperature was the most relevant microclimate variable during the overall xylogenesis, mainly influencing the production of mature tracheids. Large snow accumulation resulted in later snow depletion and a consequent delay in soil warming onset. Low soil temperatures in the spring, related to prolonged snow persistence, retarded cambial reactivation and led to lower growth rate. Despite strong spatial variability among plots, wood production was determined by snow dynamics in three out of the four studied plots. This study highlights the major role played by early and late growing season soil temperatures on radial growth of mountain conifers. The results of this study suggest that a future shallower and more transitory snowpack in the studied forests, together with warmer soil and air temperatures, may increase radial growth and productivity of similar mid-latitude, young mountain forests

Riqueza de herpetofauna de la reserva natural privada Los Tarrales, Cuenca del Lago Atitlán, Guatemala

Se investigó la riqueza de herpetofauna de la Reserva Natural Pri- vada Los Tarrales (RNPLT), cuenca del Lago Atitlán, Guatemala mediante tres métodos: 1) captura/avistamiento de especímenes, 2) investigación social y 3) investigación documental. Se realizaron búsquedas diurnas y nocturnas. El esfuerzo de búsqueda abarcó 10 años (2003 a 2013), a razón de seis pulsos por año. El tiempo acumulado de búsqueda fue de 600 horas-transecto. Se recorrió el equivalente a 720 km de senderos, cubriendo elevaciones entre los 700 y los 1900 msnm. Tres ex-cazadores de la reserva fueron entrevistados. Se analizaron publicaciones sobre distribución de la herpetofauna para Guatemala. Se generó un listado que incluye 119 especies. Se discute la calidad y el significado de los datos ge- nerados

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)