Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations

An auto TCD probe design and visualization

Transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD) is a non-invasive ultrasound method used to examine blood circulation within the brain. During TCD, ultrasound waves are transmitted through the tissues including skull. These sound waves reflect off blood cells moving within the blood vessels, allowing the radiologist to interpret their speed and direction. In this paper, an auto TCD probe is developed to control the 2D deflection angles of the probe. The techniques of Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) and Magnetic Resource Imagine (MRI) have been used to build the 3D human head model and generate the structure of cerebral arteries. The K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm as a non-parametric method has been used for signal classification and regression of corresponding arteries . Finally, a global search and local search algorithms are used to locate the ultrasound focal zone and obtain a stronger signal efficient and more accurate result

Acute and chronic kidney disease in elderly patients with hip fracture: prevalence, risk factors and outcome with development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury

Background Hip fracture is a common injury in older people with a high rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality. This patient group is also at high risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but little is known of the impact of kidney disease on outcome following hip fracture. Methods An observational cohort of consecutive patients with hip fracture in a large UK secondary care hospital. Predictive modelling of outcomes using development and validation datasets. Inclusion: all patients admitted with hip fracture with sufficient serum creatinine measurements to define acute kidney injury. Main outcome measures – development of acute kidney injury during admission; mortality (in hospital, 30-365 day and to follow-up); length of hospital stay. Results Data were available for 2848 / 2959 consecutive admissions from 2007-2011; 776 (27.2%) male. Acute kidney injury occurs in 24%; development of acute kidney injury is independently associated with male sex (OR 1.48 (1.21 to 1.80), premorbid chronic kidney disease stage 3B or worse (OR 1.52 (1.19 to 1.93)), age (OR 3.4 (2.29 to 5.2) for >85 years) and greater than one major co-morbidities (OR 1.61 (1.34 to 1.93)). Acute kidney injury of any stage is associated with an increased hazard of death, and increased length of stay (Acute kidney injury: 19.1 (IQR 13 to 31) days; no acute kidney injury 15 (11 to 23) days). A simplified predictive model containing Age, CKD stage (3B-5), two or more comorbidities, and male sex had an area under the ROC curve of 0.63 (0.60 to 0.67). Conclusions Acute kidney injury following hip fracture is common and associated with worse outcome and greater hospital length of stay. With the number of people experiencing hip fracture predicted to rise, recognition of risk factors and optimal perioperative management of acute kidney injury will become even more important

Neuroprotective properties of levosimendan in an in vitro model of traumatic brain injury

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigated the neuroprotective properties of levosimendan, a novel inodilator, in an in vitro model of traumatic brain injury.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Organotypic hippocampal brain slices from mouse pups were subjected to a focal mechanical trauma. Slices were treated after the injury with three different concentrations of levosimendan (0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 μM) and compared to vehicle-treated slices. After 72 hrs, the trauma was quantified using propidium iodide to mark the injured cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A significant dose-dependent reduction of both total and secondary tissue injury was observed in cells treated with either 0.01 or 0.1 μM levosimendan compared to vehicle-treated slices.</p> <p><b>Conclusion</b></p> <p>Levosimendan represents a promising new pharmacological tool for neuroprotection after brain injury and warrants further investigation in an in vivo model.</p

The 7th National Audit Project (NAP7) baseline survey of individual anaesthetists: preparedness for and experiences of peri-operative cardiac arrest

The Royal College of Anaesthetists' 7th National Audit Project baseline survey assessed knowledge, attitudes, practices and experiences of peri-operative cardiac arrests among UK anaesthetists and Anaesthesia Associates. We received 10,746 responses, representing a 71% response rate. In-date training in adult and paediatric advanced life support was reported by 9646 (90%) and 7125 (66%) anaesthetists, respectively. There were 8994 (84%) respondents who were confident in leading a peri-operative cardiac arrest, with males more confident than females, but only 5985 (56%) were confident in leading a debrief and 7340 (68%) communicating with next of kin. In the previous two years, 4806 (46%) respondents had managed at least one peri-operative cardiac arrest, of which 321 (7%) and 189 (4%) of these events involved a child or an obstetric patient, respectively. Respondents estimated the most common causes of peri-operative cardiac arrest to be hypovolaemia, hypoxaemia and cardiac ischaemia, with haemorrhage coming fifth. However, the most common reported causes for the most recently attended peri-operative cardiac arrest were haemorrhage; (927, 20%); anaphylaxis (474, 10%); and cardiac ischaemia (397, 9%). Operating lists or shifts were paused or stopped after 1330 (39%) cardiac arrests and 1693 (38%) respondents attended a debrief, with ‘hot’ debriefs most common. Informal wellbeing support was relatively common (2458, 56%) and formal support was uncommon (472, 11%). An impact on future care delivery was reported by 196 (4%) anaesthetists, most commonly a negative psychological impact. Management of a peri-operative cardiac arrest during their career was reported by 8654 (85%) respondents. The overall impact on professional life was more often judged positive (2630, 30%) than negative (1961, 23%), but impact on personal life was more often negative

Methods of the 7th National Audit Project (NAP7) of the Royal College of Anaesthetists: peri-operative cardiac arrest

Cardiac arrest in the peri-operative period is rare but associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Current reporting systems do not capture many such events, so there is an incomplete understanding of incidence and outcomes. As peri-operative cardiac arrest is rare, many hospitals may only see a small number of cases over long periods, and anaesthetists may not be involved in such cases for years. Therefore, a large-scale prospective cohort is needed to gain a deep understanding of events leading up to cardiac arrest, management of the arrest itself and patient outcomes. Consequently, the Royal College of Anaesthetists chose peri-operative cardiac arrest as the 7th National Audit Project topic. The study was open to all UK hospitals offering anaesthetic services and had a three-part design. First, baseline surveys of all anaesthetic departments and anaesthetists in the UK, examining respondents' prior peri-operative cardiac arrest experience, resuscitation training and local departmental preparedness. Second, an activity survey to record anonymised details of all anaesthetic activity in each site over 4 days, enabling national estimates of annual anaesthetic activity, complexity and complication rates. Third, a case registry of all instances of peri-operative cardiac arrest in the UK, reported confidentially and anonymously, over 1 year starting 16 June 2021, followed by expert review using a structured process to minimise bias. The definition of peri-operative cardiac arrest was the delivery of five or more chest compressions and/or defibrillation in a patient having a procedure under the care of an anaesthetist. The peri-operative period began with the World Health Organization 'sign-in' checklist or first hands-on contact with the patient and ended either 24 h after the patient handover (e.g. to the recovery room or intensive care unit) or at discharge if this occured earlier than 24 h. These components described the epidemiology of peri-operative cardiac arrest in the UK and provide a basis for developing guidelines and interventional studies

A randomised trial of non-invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide haemodynamic optimisation in high risk patients undergoing urgent surgical repair of proximal femoral fractures (ClearNOF trial NCT02382185)

Background: Hip fracture is a procedure with high mortality and complication rates, and there exists a group especially at risk of these outcomes identified by their Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS). Meta-analysis suggests a possible benefit to this patient group from intravascular volume optimisation. We investigated whether intraoperative fluid and blood pressure optimisation improved complications in this group. Methods: Patients with a NHFS ≥ 5 were enrolled into this multicentre observer-blinded randomised control trial. Patients were allocated to either standard care or a combination of fluid optimisation and blood pressure control using a non-invasive system. The primary outcome was the number of patients with one or more complications in each group. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), incidence of hypotension and fluid and vasopressor usage. Results: Forty-six percent of patients in the intervention group suffered one or more complications compared to the 51% in the control group (OR 0.82 (95% CI 0.49-1.36)). Per-protocol analysis improved the OR to 0.73 (95% CI 0.43-1.24). Median LOS was the same between both groups; however, the mean LOS on a per-protocol analysis was longer in the control group compared to the intervention group (23.2 (18.0) days vs. 18.5 (16.5), p = 0.047). Conclusions: Haemodynamic optimisation including blood pressure management in high-risk patients undergoing repair of a hip fracture did not result in a statistically significant reduction in complications; however, a potential reduction in length of stay was seen. Trial registration: A randomised trial of non-invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide haemodynamic optimisation in high risk patients undergoing urgent surgical repair of proximal femoral fractures (ClearNOF trial NCT02382185)