The monetary model of exchange rates is better than the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting

It is demonstrated that the monetary model of exchange rates is better than the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting if forecasting accuracy is measured by metrics that take into account the magnitude of the forecasting errors and the ability of the model to predict the direction of change. It is suggested that such a metric is the numerical value of the Wald test statistic for the joint coefficient restriction implied by the line of perfect forecast. The results reveal that the monetary model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting for four different exchange rates

A reappraisal of the meese-rogoff puzzle

Several explanations have been put forward for the Meese and Rogoff puzzle that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We suggest that a simple explanation for the puzzle is the use of the root mean square error (RMSE) to measure forecasting accuracy, presenting a rationale as to why it is difficult to beat the random walk in terms of the RMSE. By using exactly the same exchange rates, time periods and estimation methods as those of Meese and Rogoff, we find that their results cannot be overturned even if the models are estimated with time-varying coefficients. However, we also find that the random walk can be outperformed by the same models if forecasting accuracy is measured in terms of the ability to predict direction, in terms of a measure that combines magnitude and direction and in terms of profitability

Fire or ice? A critical assessment of the underlying views

A debate is raging on whether the U.S. is likely to experience hyperinflation (fire) or deflation (ice) as a result of post-crisis policies, particularly quantitative easing. Views have been put forward to suggest that the U.S. is heading towards ice, while others suggest that fire is the destination. There are also those who envisage either fire or ice, depending on how much is done to combat deflation. These views are assessed critically to reach the conclusion that, on the balance of probabilities, it seems that the U.S. is more likely heading towards fire

The Basel III controversy: A critical assessment of the views of Australian regulators

This paper critically examines the arguments put forward by Australian regulators in favour of Basel III and the Basel accords, more generally. We argue that Basel II contributed significantly to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European crisis. We also suggest that Basel III is not a 'great leap forward' when compared with Basel II, its provisions will not make banks more resilient, its architects have not learned much from the GFC and that the international unification of banking regulation is a flawed idea

Is depression a concern among medical students: a cross sectional study in different academic years of a private medical college in Bangladesh

Background: Depression is not uncommon among medical students all over the world. Few studies have been conducted so far in Bangladesh to depict its actual prevalence and severity. So, the aim of this study was to assess the severity of depression and the level of difficulty faced by medical students in different academic years.Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in North East medical college of Bangladesh from January 2018 to June 2018 involving 443 students from 1st year to 5th year. Students were instructed to fill up the patient health questionnaire (PHQ-9) which incorporates diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM-IV) depression diagnostic criteria categorized as no, mild, moderate, moderately severe, and severe depression and also evaluates their level of function.Results: The prevalence of depression was quite high (79.68%). 196 (44.24%) and 157 (35.44%) students had mild and major depression respectively, while 90 (20.32%) showed no depression. Students with major depression were scored as moderate depression 24.38%, moderately severe depression 8.35%, and severe depression 2.71%. Moderate depression was significantly higher in year 1 and year 2 students in comparison to year 3, 4 and 5. Students from year 1 to year 5 with mild, moderate, moderately severe and severe depression experienced varying degree of difficulty in their daily activities. Almost all the students in all years with severe depression found themselves very difficult or extremely difficult to cope.Conclusions: High prevalence of depression among medical students is really alarming and underlying factors need to be addressed

Normal, Abby Normal, Prefix Normal

A prefix normal word is a binary word with the property that no substring has more 1s than the prefix of the same length. This class of words is important in the context of binary jumbled pattern matching. In this paper we present results about the number $pnw(n)$ of prefix normal words of length $n$, showing that $pnw(n) =\Omega\left(2^{n - c\sqrt{n\ln n}}\right)$ for some $c$ and $pnw(n) = O \left(\frac{2^n (\ln n)^2}{n}\right)$. We introduce efficient algorithms for testing the prefix normal property and a "mechanical algorithm" for computing prefix normal forms. We also include games which can be played with prefix normal words. In these games Alice wishes to stay normal but Bob wants to drive her "abnormal" -- we discuss which parameter settings allow Alice to succeed.Comment: Accepted at FUN '1

Medullary carcinoma of the breast: Role of contrast-enhanced MRI in the diagnosis of multiple breast lesions

Medullary carcinoma is a rare breast carcinoma with a syncytial growth pattern and high-grade cytology. It can be difficult to diagnose and may be missed on conventional imaging as the findings may overlap with benign lesions i.e. fibroadenomas. The authors report a case of a 25-year-old female who presented with multifocal breast lumps diagnosed with medullary carcinoma and fibroadenomas. Imaging and pathological correlation with contrast-enhanced MRI are presented in the diagnosis of these lesions

Can exchange rate forecasting models outperform the random walk? Magnitude, direction and profitability as criteria

Abstract not availabl

Structure-based mutational analyses in FGF7 identify new residues involved in specific interaction with FGFR2IIIb

AbstractReceptor binding specificity is an essential element in regulating the diverse activities of fibroblast growth factors (FGFs). FGF7 is ideal to study how this specificity is conferred at the structural level, as it interacts exclusively with one isoform of the FGF-receptor (FGFR) family, known as FGFR2IIIb. Previous mutational analysis suggested the importance of the β4/β5 loop of FGF7 in specific receptor recognition. Here a theoretical model of FGFR2IIIb/FGF7 complex showed that this loop interacts with the FGFR2IIIb unique exon. In addition, the model revealed new residues that either directly interact with the FGFR2IIIb unique exon (Asp63, Leu142) or facilitate this interaction (Arg65). Mutations in these residues reduced both receptor binding affinity and biological activity of FGF7. Altogether, these results provide the basis for understanding how receptor-binding specificity of FGF7 is conferred at the structural level