New clinical prediction model for early recognition of sepsis in adult primary care patients:a prospective diagnostic cohort study of development and external validation

Background Recognising patients who need immediate hospital treatment for sepsis while simultaneously limiting unnecessary referrals is challenging for GPs.Aim To develop and validate a sepsis prediction model for adult patients in primary care.Design and setting This was a prospective cohort study in four out-of-hours primary care services in the Netherlands, conducted between June 2018 and March 2020.Method Adult patients who were acutely ill and received home visits were included. A total of nine clinical variables were selected as candidate predictors, next to the biomarkers C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate. The primary endpoint was sepsis within 72 hours of inclusion, as established by an expert panel. Multivariable logistic regression with backwards selection was used to design an optimal model with continuous clinical variables. The added value of the biomarkers was evaluated. Subsequently, a simple model using single cut-off points of continuous variables was developed and externally validated in two emergency department populations.Results A total of 357 patients were included with a median age of 80 years (interquartile range 71–86), of which 151 (42%) were diagnosed with sepsis. A model based on a simple count of one point for each of six variables (aged >65 years; temperature >38°C; systolic blood pressure ≤110 mmHg; heart rate >110/min; saturation ≤95%; and altered mental status) had good discrimination and calibration (C-statistic of 0.80 [95% confidence interval = 0.75 to 0.84]; Brier score 0.175). Biomarkers did not improve the performance of the model and were therefore not included. The model was robust during external validation.Conclusion Based on this study’s GP out-of-hours population, a simple model can accurately predict sepsis in acutely ill adult patients using readily available clinical parameters

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) facilitates depilation of the Angora rabbit

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The enhanced inflammatory response in non-small cell lung carcinoma is not reflected in the alveolar compartment.

AbstractAn inflammatory response has been observed in lung cancer both locally and systemically. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the alveolar compartment was involved in the inflammatory response in non- small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Both inflammatory mediators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and cytokines produced by alveolar macrophages (AM) were investigated. Twenty patients with newly detected NSCLC and nine control subjects were studied. The patients had not been treated with chemotherapy, radiotherapy or with systemic or inhaled corticosteroids. All patients and control subjects were current smokers or stopped smoking recently. BAL was performed in the affected lung as well as in the contralateral lung of NSCLC patients, and only unilaterally in control subjects. Comparable results were demonstrated for the levels of the inflammatory mediators TNF-α, Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, both soluble TNF receptors and the soluble adhesion molecules E-selectin and intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 between the affected lung and the contralateral lung in the NSCLC population as well as between the NSCLC population and the control subjects. Moreover, no significant differences in cytokine profiles of AM were found between AM obtained from the affected lung and from the contralateral lung. Although BAL is a useful tool in the diagnostic procedure for NSCLC, the present findings suggest that BAL does not reflect the enhanced inflammatory state, as reported in plasma and in the interstitial compartment around the tumour cells in NSCLC