World scientists’ warnings into action, local to global

‘We have kicked the can down the road once again – but we are running out of road.’ – Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University. We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more ‘road.’ The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosystems’ capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads, but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now. What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the climate and nature emergencies, two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making. Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action – energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the ‘Reduce-Remove-Repair’ approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions. Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future

An agenda for integrated system-wide interdisciplinary agri-food research

© 2017 The Author(s)This paper outlines the development of an integrated interdisciplinary approach to agri-food research, designed to address the ‘grand challenge’ of global food security. Rather than meeting this challenge by working in separate domains or via single-disciplinary perspectives, we chart the development of a system-wide approach to the food supply chain. In this approach, social and environmental questions are simultaneously addressed. Firstly, we provide a holistic model of the agri-food system, which depicts the processes involved, the principal inputs and outputs, the actors and the external influences, emphasising the system’s interactions, feedbacks and complexities. Secondly, we show how this model necessitates a research programme that includes the study of land-use, crop production and protection, food processing, storage and distribution, retailing and consumption, nutrition and public health. Acknowledging the methodological and epistemological challenges involved in developing this approach, we propose two specific ways forward. Firstly, we propose a method for analysing and modelling agri-food systems in their totality, which enables the complexity to be reduced to essential components of the whole system to allow tractable quantitative analysis using LCA and related methods. This initial analysis allows for more detailed quantification of total system resource efficiency, environmental impact and waste. Secondly, we propose a method to analyse the ethical, legal and political tensions that characterise such systems via the use of deliberative fora. We conclude by proposing an agenda for agri-food research which combines these two approaches into a rational programme for identifying, testing and implementing the new agri-technologies and agri-food policies, advocating the critical application of nexus thinking to meet the global food security challenge

Incontinence and gait disturbance after intraventricular extension of intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is associated with incontinence and gait disturbance among survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) at 3-month follow-ups. METHODS: The Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke study was used as the discovery set. The Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage study served as a replication set. Both studies performed prospective hot-pursuit recruitment of ICH cases with 3-month follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were computed to identify risk factors for incontinence and gait dysmobility at 3 months after ICH. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 307 ICH cases in the discovery set and 1,374 cases in the replication set. In the discovery set, we found that increasing IVH volume was associated with incontinence (odds ratio [OR] 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-2.06) and dysmobility (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.15) after controlling for ICH location, initial ICH volume, age, baseline modified Rankin Scale score, sex, and admission Glasgow Coma Scale score. In the replication set, increasing IVH volume was also associated with both incontinence (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.27-1.60) and dysmobility (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.24-1.57) after controlling for the same variables. CONCLUSION: ICH subjects with IVH extension are at an increased risk for developing incontinence and dysmobility after controlling for factors associated with severity and disability. This finding suggests a potential target to prevent or treat long-term disability after ICH with IVH

Racial-ethnic disparities in acute blood pressure after intracerebral hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE: To assess race-ethnic differences in acute blood pressure (BP) following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and the contribution to disparities in ICH outcome. METHODS: BPs in the field (emergency medical services [EMS]), emergency department (ED), and at 24 hours were compared and adjusted for group differences between non-Hispanic black (black), non-Hispanic white (white), and Hispanic participants in the Ethnic Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage case-control study. Outcome was obtained by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months. We analyzed race-ethnic differences in good outcome (mRS ≤ 2) and mortality after adjusting for baseline differences and included BP recordings in this model. RESULTS: Of 2,069 ICH cases enrolled, 30% were white, 37% black, and 33% Hispanic. Black and Hispanic patients had higher EMS and ED systolic and diastolic BPs compared with white patients (p = 0.0001). Although attenuated, at 24 hours after admission, black patients had higher systolic and diastolic BPs. After adjusting for baseline differences, significant race/ethnic differences persisted for EMS systolic, ED systolic and diastolic, and 24-hours diastolic BP. Only ED systolic and diastolic BP was associated with poor functional outcome, and no BP predicted mortality. We found no race-ethnic differences in 3-month functional outcome or mortality after adjusting for group differences, including acute BPs. CONCLUSIONS: Although black and Hispanic patients had higher BPs than white patients at presentation, we did not find race-ethnic disparities in 3-month functional outcome or mortality. ED systolic and diastolic BP was associated with poor functional outcome, but not mortality, in this race-ethnically diverse population