Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous (but separate) evidence for other countries. Empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. Further short-run implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties.Term structure; Expectations hypothesis; Hypothesis testing; Structural breaks; Portugal

Empiricism and stochastics in cellular automaton modeling of urban land use dynamics

An increasing number of models for predicting land use change in regions of rapidurbanization are being proposed and built using ideas from cellular automata (CA)theory. Calibrating such models to real situations is highly problematic and to date,serious attention has not been focused on the estimation problem. In this paper, wepropose a structure for simulating urban change based on estimating land usetransitions using elementary probabilistic methods which draw their inspiration fromBayes' theory and the related ?weights of evidence? approach. These land use changeprobabilities drive a CA model ? DINAMICA ? conceived at the Center for RemoteSensing of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (CSR-UFMG). This is based on aneight cell Moore neighborhood approach implemented through empirical land useallocation algorithms. The model framework has been applied to a medium-size townin the west of São Paulo State, Bauru. We show how various socio-economic andinfrastructural factors can be combined using the weights of evidence approach whichenables us to predict the probability of changes between land use types in differentcells of the system. Different predictions for the town during the period 1979-1988were generated, and statistical validation was then conducted using a multipleresolution fitting procedure. These modeling experiments support the essential logicof adopting Bayesian empirical methods which synthesize various information aboutspatial infrastructure as the driver of urban land use change. This indicates therelevance of the approach for generating forecasts of growth for Brazilian citiesparticularly and for world-wide cities in general

Direct measurements of conventional and anisotropic magnetocaloric effect in binary RAI(2) single crystals

FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESPCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPESCONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQWe report on specific heat and magnetocaloric effect (MCE) measurements in single crystals of HoAl2, DyAl2, and TbAl2 measured by a heat flux technique using Peltier devices. Those compounds order ferromagnetically at 31 K, 61 K, and 106 K respectively, and present a spin reorientation transition (SRT) below T-C. We study the dependence of the SRT with magnetic field and temperature by means of specific heat measurements performed in single crystals oriented at the [100], [110], and [111] directions with the aid of calculations using a simple model. We obtained the conventional MCE for HoAl2 and TbAl2 and also the anisotropic version of the effect obtained indirectly from the specific heat for TbAl2 and DyAl2. We also present the results for a direct determination of the anisotropic MCE for DyAl2 by measuring the heat flux generated by a rotation of the single crystal under constant field.1212119FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESPCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPESCONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQFUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESPCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPESCONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQSem informaçãoSem informaçãoSem informaçãoWe would like to thank the financial support from the Brazilian agencies FAPESP, Capes, CNPq, and FAEPEX-Unicamp

Semiclassical description of resonant tunneling

We derive a semiclassical formula for the tunneling current of electrons trapped in a potential well which can tunnel into and across a wide quantum well. The calculations idealize an experimental situation where a strong magnetic field tilted with respect to an electric field is used. The resulting semiclassical expression is written as the sum over special periodic orbits which hit both walls of the quantum well and are perpendicular to the first wall.Comment: LaTeX, 8 page

Micromegas operation in high pressure xenon: charge and scintillation readout

The operational characteristics of a Micromegas operating in pure xenon at the pressure range of 1 to 10 bar are investigated. The maximum charge gain achieved in each pressure is approximately constant, around 4x10^2, for xenon pressures up to 5 bar and decreasing slowly above this pressure down to values somewhat above 10^2 at 10 bar. The MM presents the highest gains for xenon pressures above 4 bar, when compared to other micropattern gaseous multipliers. The lowest energy resolution obtained for X-rays of 22.1 keV exhibits a steady increase with pressure, from 12% at 1bar to about 32% at 10 bar. The effective scintillation yield, defined as the number of photons exiting through the MM mesh holes per primary electron produced in the conversion region was calculated. This yield is about 2x10^2 photons per primary electron at 1 bar, increasing to about 6x10^2 at 5 bar and, then, decreasing again to 2x10^2 at 10 bar. The readout of this scintillation by a suitable photosensor will result in higher gains but with increased statistical fluctuations.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figure

Primary and secondary scintillation measurements in a xenon Gas Proportional Scintillation Counter

NEXT is a new experiment to search for neutrinoless double beta decay using a 100 kg radio-pure high-pressure gaseous xenon TPC. The detector requires excellent energy resolution, which can be achieved in a Xe TPC with electroluminescence readout. Hamamatsu R8520-06SEL photomultipliers are good candidates for the scintillation readout. The performance of this photomultiplier, used as VUV photosensor in a gas proportional scintillation counter, was investigated. Initial results for the detection of primary and secondary scintillation produced as a result of the interaction of 5.9 keV X-rays in gaseous xenon, at room temperature and at pressures up to 3 bar, are presented. An energy resolution of 8.0% was obtained for secondary scintillation produced by 5.9 keV X-rays. No significant variation of the primary scintillation was observed for different pressures (1, 2 and 3 bar) and for electric fields up to 0.8 V cm-1 torr-1 in the drift region, demonstrating negligible recombination luminescence. A primary scintillation yield of 81 \pm 7 photons was obtained for 5.9 keV X-rays, corresponding to a mean energy of 72 \pm 6 eV to produce a primary scintillation photon in xenon.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in JINS

Simulation of VUV electroluminescence in micropattern gaseous detectors: the case of GEM and MHSP

Electroluminescence produced during avalanche development in gaseous avalanche detectors is an useful information for triggering, calorimetry and tracking in gaseous detectors. Noble gases present high electroluminescence yields, emitting mainly in the VUV region. The photons can provide signal readout if appropriate photosensors are used. Micropattern gaseous detectors are good candidates for signal amplification in high background and/or low rate experiments due to their high electroluminescence yields and radiopurity. In this work, the VUV light responses of the Gas Electron Multiplier and of the Micro-Hole Strip Plate, working with pure xenon, are simulated and studied in detail using a new and versatile C++ toolkit. It is shown that the solid angle subtended by a photosensor placed below the microstructures depends on the operating conditions. The obtained absolute EL yields, determined for different gas pressures and as functions of the applied voltage, are compared with those determined experimentally.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Instrumentatio

A robust feature extraction for automatic speech recognition in noisy environments

This paper presents a method for extraction of speech robust features when the external noise is additive and has white noise characteristics. The process consists of a short time power normalisation which goal is to preserve as much as possible, the speech features against noise. The proposed normalisation will be optimal if the corrupted process has, as the noise process white noise characteristics. With optimal normalisation we can mean that the corrupting noise does not change at all the means of the observed vectors of the corrupted process. As most of the speech energy is contained in a relatively small frequency band being most of the band composed by noise or noise-like power, this normalisation process can still capture most of the noise distortions. For Signal to Noise Ratio greater than 5 dB the results show that for stationary white noise, the normalisation process where the noise characteristics are ignored at the test phase, outperforms the conventional Markov models composition where the noise is known. If the noise is known, a reasonable approximation of the inverted system can be easily obtained performing noise compensation still increasing the recogniser performance