Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses

Creating functional groups of marine fish from categorical traits

Background Functional groups serve two important functions in ecology: they allow for simplification of ecosystem models and can aid in understanding diversity. Despite their important applications, there has not been a universally accepted method of how to define them. A common approach is to cluster species on a set of traits, validated through visual confirmation of resulting groups based primarily on expert opinion. The goal of this research is to determine a suitable procedure for creating and evaluating functional groups that arise from clustering nominal traits. Methods To do so, we produced a species by trait matrix of 22 traits from 116 fish species from Tasman Bay and Golden Bay, New Zealand. Data collected from photographs and published literature were predominantly nominal, and a small number of continuous traits were discretized. Some data were missing, so the benefit of imputing data was assessed using four approaches on data with known missing values. Hierarchical clustering is utilised to search for underlying data structure in the data that may represent functional groups. Within this clustering paradigm there are a number of distance matrices and linkage methods available, several combinations of which we test. The resulting clusters are evaluated using internal metrics developed specifically for nominal clustering. This revealed the choice of number of clusters, distance matrix and linkage method greatly affected the overall within- and between- cluster variability. We visualise the clustering in two dimensions and the stability of clusters is assessed through bootstrapping. Results Missing data imputation showed up to 90% accuracy using polytomous imputation, so was used to impute the real missing data. A division of the species information into three functional groups was the most separated, compact and stable result. Increasing the number of clusters increased the inconsistency of group membership, and selection of the appropriate distance matrix and linkage method improved the fit. Discussion We show that the commonly used methodologies used for the creation of functional groups are fraught with subjectivity, ultimately causing significant variation in the composition of resulting groups. Depending on the research goal dictates the appropriate strategy for selecting number of groups, distance matrix and clustering algorithm combination

Deiksis Pada Novel Bulan Terbelah Di Langit Amerika Karya Hanum Salsabiela Rais Dan Rangga Almahendra (Deixis in the Novel of Bulan Terbelah Di Langit Amerika by Hanum Salsabiela Rais and Rangga Almahendra)

Deiksis pada Novel Bulan Terbelah di Langit Amerika karya Hanum Salsabiela Rais dan RanggaAlmahendra. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan (1) deiksis persona, (2) deiksis tempat,(3) deiksis waktu, (4) deiksis wacana, dan (5) deiksis sosial yang terdapat dalam novel BulanTerbelah diLangit Amerika karya Hanum Salsabiela Rais dan Rangga Almahendra. Pendekatan yang digunakandalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kualitatif. Adapun jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitianpragmatik. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode deskriptif. Sumber data yang digunakanberasal dari novel BulanTerbelah di Langit Amerika karya Hanum Salsabiela Rais dan RanggaAlmahendra. Data pada penelitian ini berupa kata-kata dan kalimat yang bersifat deiksis. Teknikpengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah studi pustaka. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalahteknik analisis isi. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam novel BulanTerbelah di Langit299Amerika terdapat lima macam deiksis, yaitu (1) deiksis persona, (2) deiksis tempat, (3) deiksis waktu,(4) deiksis wacana, dan (5) deiksis sosial. Deiksis persona terbagi menjadi tiga yaitu, orang pertama,seperti: aku, saya, kami, dan kita, orang kedua seperti: kamu, Anda, engkau, kau, kalian, kaliansemua, dan Anda semua, sedangkan orang ketiga seperti: ia, dia, nya, dan mereka. Deiksis tempatseperti: ini, di sini, ke sini, dari sini, itu, di situ, dari situ, dari sana, dan ke sana. Deiksis waktu seperti:tadi, dulu, kemarin, sekarang, saat ini, sedang, kini, besok, akan,dan nanti. Deiksis wacana berupaanafora dan katafora. Deiksis sosial seperti:eufemisme, honorifiks, profesi, dan gelar. Penelitian ini jugamenunjukkan bahwa deiksis memiliki keterkaitan dengan unsur intrinsik novel, yaitu tokoh, latar, dangaya bahasa. Hal ini terlihat dengan adanya deiksis persona maka memudahkan pembaca mengetahuikepada tokoh siapakah pronomina persona merujuk. Selain itu, dengan adanya deiksis tempat danwaktu pembaca dapat mengetahui seperti apakah latar tempat dan waktu yang ada dalam novel ini.Adapun keberadaan deiksis wacana dan sosial dapat memudahkan pembaca mengetahui gaya bahasayang digunakan.Kata

Using accelerometers to develop time-energy budgets of wild fur seals from captive surrogates

Background Accurate time-energy budgets summarise an animal’s energy expenditure in a given environment, and are potentially a sensitive indicator of how an animal responds to changing resources. Deriving accurate time-energy budgets requires an estimate of time spent in different activities and of the energetic cost of that activity. Bio-loggers (e.g., accelerometers) may provide a solution for monitoring animals such as fur seals that make long-duration foraging trips. Using low resolution to record behaviour may aid in the transmission of data, negating the need to recover the device. Methods This study used controlled captive experiments and previous energetic research to derive time-energy budgets of juvenile Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus) equipped with tri-axial accelerometers. First, captive fur seals and sea lions were equipped with accelerometers recording at high (20 Hz) and low (1 Hz) resolutions, and their behaviour recorded. Using this data, machine learning models were trained to recognise four states—foraging, grooming, travelling and resting. Next, the energetic cost of each behaviour, as a function of location (land or water), season and digestive state (pre- or post-prandial) was estimated. Then, diving and movement data were collected from nine wild juvenile fur seals wearing accelerometers recording at high- and low- resolutions. Models developed from captive seals were applied to accelerometry data from wild juvenile Australian fur seals and, finally, their time-energy budgets were reconstructed. Results Behaviour classification models built with low resolution (1 Hz) data correctly classified captive seal behaviours with very high accuracy (up to 90%) and recorded without interruption. Therefore, time-energy budgets of wild fur seals were constructed with these data. The reconstructed time-energy budgets revealed that juvenile fur seals expended the same amount of energy as adults of similar species. No significant differences in daily energy expenditure (DEE) were found across sex or season (winter or summer), but fur seals rested more when their energy expenditure was expected to be higher. Juvenile fur seals used behavioural compensatory techniques to conserve energy during activities that were expected to have high energetic outputs (such as diving). Discussion As low resolution accelerometry (1 Hz) was able to classify behaviour with very high accuracy, future studies may be able to transmit more data at a lower rate, reducing the need for tag recovery. Reconstructed time-energy budgets demonstrated that juvenile fur seals appear to expend the same amount of energy as their adult counterparts. Through pairing estimates of energy expenditure with behaviour this study demonstrates the potential to understand how fur seals expend energy, and where and how behavioural compensations are made to retain constant energy expenditure over a short (dive) and long (season) period

Modelling energetics of fur seals and sea lions

Thesis by publication.Includes bibliographical references.1. Introduction -- 2. Intrinsic and extrinsic influences on the standard metabolic rates of three species of Australian otariid -- 3. Swimming metabolic rates vary by sex and development stage, but not by species, in three species of Australian otariid seals -- 4. Seeing it all: evaluating supervised machine learning methods for the classification of diverse otariid behaviours -- 5. Super machine learning: improving accuracy and reducing variance of behaviour classification from accelerometry -- 6. Validating accelerometers to predict stroke rate using captive fur seals and sea lions -- 7. Proxies of energy expenditure for marine mammals: an experimental study of "the time trap" -- 8. Accelerometers recording at low frequencies can be used to develop time-energy budgets of wild fur seals from captive surrogates -- 9. Conclusions and future directions.Energy is the source of life, and at the most basic level, survival of a species is dictated by how efficiently animals gain and use their accumulated energy. Energetics, the study of how animals organise their daily or seasonal activities, allows us to understand how animal energy budgets are used and affected by life history or environmental changes. However, to comprehend fully how animals may respond to changes in their environment it is necessary to measure accurately behaviour and physiology of wild animals. This can be achieved by estimating time-energy budgets from accelerometers. In this thesis, energetic models were developed through experiments with a diverse group of captive fur seals and sea lions (otariids) and subsequently applied to wild fur seals. Otariids are an excellent study species as they predictably haul out at the same colony after foraging at sea (for data recovery) and must return to the surface to breathe (for energetics studies). Captive surrogates were used to develop baseline energetic data for the species of interest: Australian fur seals, New Zealand fur seals and Australian sea lions. The standard metabolic rate of otariids was measured over a year. Females were found to have generally higher metabolic rates than males, and fur seals, but not sea lions, have predictable changes in metabolic rate related to time of year and moult. The metabolic rate of activity was investigated by training adult and subadult otariids to swim submerged for varying durations. Otariids exhibited a dive response, as their metabolic rate decreased with extended periods of swimming, and juveniles had an additional cost of movement. Swimming trials with otariids swimming or diving to feeding tubes were used to validate accelerometers for measuring energy expenditure. Dive duration, total stroke rate and dynamic body acceleration (DBA) was found to accurately predict total energy expenditure for a swim and DBA explained more variation in the model than stroke rate and dive duration. The use of accelerometers to distinguish among groups of four ecologically important behaviours (grooming, foraging, travelling and resting) was validated on captive surrogates and time-energy budgets were developed from this information. These time-energy budgets, when applied to wild fur seals, indicated juvenile fur seals change their behaviour to cope with different energetic pressures between seasons. Juvenile fur seals also have higher energetic costs than adults that may limit their scope for increasing foraging effort during times of resource limitation. These findings indicate that time-energy budgets measured with accelerometers are a useful method of monitoring populations of seals over time that may be subject to limited food availability.1 online resource (xiv, 172 pages : illustrations, maps

Updating the costs of disasters in Australia

The Bureau of Transport Economics (BTE) 2001 report, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia (BTE 2001), has been the only comprehensive, national assessment of the economic impacts of disasters in Australia. Statistics and economic impact assessment methodology presented in the report have been widely used for research and policy analysis, particularly for assessing the costs and benefits of disaster risk reduction and mitigation. This is the case even though the data and analysis are over one and a half decades old. It has needed updating in terms of the approach to analysis and the dataset to include the many relevant disasters triggered by natural phenomena from 1999 to 2013. This paper sets out the approach used to update the 2001 report through a National Emergency Management Projects grant, documents the major issues faced, including the need for a new dataset and presents some results. The main differences between the BTE 2001 report and the update concern increased losses from bushfires, the inclusion of heatwaves, with heatwaves responsible for half of all deaths, and changes in the pattern of loss at the state level

Swimming metabolic rates vary by sex and development stage, but not by species, in three species of Australian otariid seals

Physiology may limit the ability for marine mammals to adapt to changing environments. Depth and duration of foraging dives are a function of total available oxygen stores, which theoretically increase as animals grow, and metabolic costs. To evaluate how physiology may influence the travelling costs for seals to foraging patches in the wild, we measured metabolic rates of a cross-section of New Zealand fur seals, Australian fur seals and Australian sea lions representing different foraging strategies, development stages, sexes and sizes. We report values for standard metabolic rate, active metabolic rate (obtained from submerged swimming), along with estimates of cost of transport (COT), measured via respirometry. We found a decline in mass-specific metabolic rate with increased duration of submerged swimming. For most seals mass-specific metabolic rate increased with speed and for all seals mass-specific COT decreased with speed. Mass-specific metabolic rate was higher for subadult than adult fur seals and sea lions, corresponding to an overall higher minimum COT. Some sex differences were also apparent, such that female Australian fur seals and Australian sea lions had higher mass-specific metabolic rates than males. There were no species differences in standard or active metabolic rates for adult males or females. The seals in our study appear to operate at their physiological optimum during submerged swimming. However, the higher metabolic rates of young and female fur seals and sea lions may limit their scope for increasing foraging effort during times of resource limitation.14 page(s

Intrinsic and extrinsic influences on standard metabolic rates of three species of Australian otariid

The study of marine mammal energetics can shed light on how these animals might adapt to changing environments. Their physiological potential to adapt will be influenced by extrinsic factors, such as temperature, and by intrinsic factors, such as sex and reproduction. We measured the standard metabolic rate (SMR) of males and females of three Australian otariid species (two Australian fur seals, three New Zealand fur seals and seven Australian sea lions). Mean SMR ranged from 0.47 to 1.05 l O2 min⁻¹, which when adjusted for mass was from 5.33 to 7.44 ml O2 min⁻¹ kg⁻¹. We found that Australian sea lion mass-specific SMR (sSMR; in millilitres of oxygen per minute per kilogram) varied little in response to time of year or moult, but was significantly influenced by sex and water temperature. Likewise, sSMR of Australian and New Zealand fur seals was also influenced by sex and water temperature, but also by time of year (pre-moult, moult or post-moult). During the moult, fur seals had significantly higher sSMR than at other times of the year, whereas there was no discernible effect of moult for sea lions. For both groups, females had higher sSMR than males, but sea lions and fur seals showed different responses to changes in water temperature. The sSMR of fur seals increased with increasing water temperature, whereas sSMR of sea lions decreased with increasing water temperature. There were no species differences when comparing animals of the same sex. Our study suggests that fur seals have more flexibility in their physiology than sea lions, perhaps implying that they will be more resilient in a changing environment.14 page(s

Locating the intangible : integrating a sense of place into cost estimations of natural disasters

The field of disaster loss assessment attempts to provide comprehensive estimates of the cost of disasters. Assessment of intangibles remains a major weakness. Existing costing frameworks have acknowledged losses to cultural – as distinct from economic, social, human or environmental – capital. However, the inclusion of cultural line items has usually been conducted in an ad hoc and under-theorised way, with little empirical evidence. This paper presents the possibility of using cultural capital itself as an overarching category for specifically cultural losses. It further focuses on the specific concept of sense of place as one area that has been neglected even in frameworks that consider other kinds of intangibles, and argues, on both theoretical and pragmatic grounds, that a collective or shared sense of place can be subsumed within cultural capital loss estimates. Christchurch provides an illustration of the idea as relevant and comparable empirical material is available from before and since the 2011 earthquake