Regeneration Strategies and Forest Resilience to Changing Fire Regimes: Insights From a Goldilocks Model

Disturbances are ubiquitous in ecological systems, and species have evolved a range of strategies to resist or rebound following disturbance. Understanding how the presence and complementarity of regeneration traits will affect community responses to disturbance is increasingly urgent as disturbance regimes shift beyond their historical ranges of variability. We define disturbance niche as a species\u27 fitness across a range of disturbance sizes and frequencies that can reflect the fundamental or realized niche, that is, whether the species occurs alone or with other species. We developed a model of intermediate complexity (i.e., a Goldilocks model) to infer the disturbance niche. We parameterized the model for subalpine forests in Yellowstone National Park (USA) adapted to infrequent stand-replacing fires and included the three major tree-regeneration strategies: (1) obligate seeders that rely on ex situ seeding into burned areas (non-serotinous lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var. latifola), (2) obligate seeders that depend on in situ seedbanks (serotinous lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var. latifola), and (3) species that can resprout from surviving roots following fire (quaking aspen, Populus tremuloides). Our results showed which regeneration strategies increase or decrease in prevalence as fire rotation declines. Non-serotinous pines were extirpated when fire rotation was below 50 years in a monoculture and 100 years in a mixed forest; serotinous pines were extirpated when fire rotation was below 20 years; and aspen was extirpated when fire rotation fell below 6 years. The fundamental and realized disturbance niches pinpointed the key mechanisms limiting regeneration for each strategy, namely, increasing fire size for non-serotinous pine (ex situ seeders), decreasing fire frequency for serotinous pine (in situ seeders), and interspecific competition for aspen (resprouters). In a mixed forest, the three regeneration strategies were complementary and each dominated at different combinations of fire size and frequency. Consequently, diversity of regeneration strategies enhanced forest resilience to declining fire rotations. Despite its simplicity, our Goldilocks model produced realistic dynamics and could be readily adapted to other disturbance-prone ecosystems to explore the generality of these results. The disturbance niche is a key concept for anticipating community resilience to changing disturbance regimes

Less Fuel for the Next Fire? Short-Interval Fire Delays Forest Recovery and Interacting Drivers Amplify Effects

As 21st-century climate and disturbance dynamics depart from historic baselines, ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Multiple drivers are changing simultaneously, and interactions among drivers could amplify ecosystem vulnerability to change. Subalpine forests in Greater Yellowstone (Northern Rocky Mountains, USA) were historically resilient to infrequent (100–300 year), severe fire. We sampled paired short-interval (\u3c30-year) and long-interval (\u3e125-year) post-fire plots most recently burned between 1988 and 2018 to address two questions: (1) How do short-interval fire, climate, topography, and distance to unburned live forest edge interact to affect post-fire forest regeneration? (2) How do forest biomass and fuels vary following short-interval versus long-interval severe fires? Mean post-fire live tree stem density was an order of magnitude lower following short-interval versus long-interval fires (3240 vs. 28,741 stems ha-1, respectively). Differences between paired plots were amplified at longer distances to live forest edge. Surprisingly, warmer–drier climate was associated with higher seedling densities even after short-interval fire, likely relating to regional variation in serotiny of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia). Unlike conifers, density of aspen (Populus tremuloides), a deciduous resprouter, increased with short-interval versus long-interval fires (mean 384 vs. 62 stems ha-1, respectively). Live biomass and canopy fuels remained low nearly 30 years after short-interval fire, in contrast with rapid recovery after long-interval fire, suggesting that future burn severity may be reduced for several decades following reburns. Short-interval plots also had half as much dead woody biomass compared with long-interval plots (60 vs. 121 Mg ha-1), primarily due to the absence of large snags. Our results suggest differences in tree regeneration following short-interval versus long-interval fires will be especially pronounced where serotiny was high historically. Propagule limitation will also interact with short-interval fires to diminish tree regeneration but lessen subsequent burn severity. Amplifying driver interactions are likely to threaten forest resilience under expected trajectories of a future fire

Young Forests and Fire: Using Lidar–Imagery Fusion to Explore Fuels and Burn Severity in a Subalpine Forest Reburn

Anticipating fire behavior as climate change and fire activity accelerate is an increasingly pressing management challenge in fire-prone landscapes. In subalpine forests adapted to infrequent, stand-replacing fire, self-limitation of burn severity in short-interval fire is incompletely understood. Spatially explicit fuels data can support assessments of landscape-scale fire risk and fuel feedbacks on burn severity. For a ~1450-km2 largely forested landscape in the US Northern Rocky Mountains, we used airborne lidar and imagery to predict and map canopy and surface fuels. In a fire that burned mature (\u3e125-year-old) and also reburned young (~30-year-old) subalpine forest, we then asked: (1) How do prefire fuels and burn severity compare between young and mature forests that burned under similar fire weather conditions? (2) How well do prefire fuels and forest structure predict burn severity under extreme versus moderate fire weather? Lidar–imagery fusion predicted fuel characteristics with high accuracy across forest and shrubland vegetation. Young postfire forests had abundant, densely packed canopy fuels, and both young and mature forests had similar canopy fuel loads and coarse wood biomass. Under similar weather conditions, young and mature forests burned at similar severity. Overall, fuels were weak predictors of burn severity and, surprisingly, better predicted severity under extreme rather than moderate fire weather. Our findings are relevant for subalpine landscapes increasingly dominated by young lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests vulnerable to short-interval fire and provide a benchmark to assess how fuels influence burn severity in future fires. Fire managers should continually reassess fuels and update expectations about fire behavior as landscapes change. Although recovering postfire forests can limit fire spread and severity for a period of time, our results suggest that young subalpine forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains have sufficient fuel loads to burn at high severity and should not be considered effective fire breaks

Feature Improvement and Cost Reduction of Baitcasting Fishing Reels for Emerging Markets

Baitcasting fishing reels are a challenging product to sell to new users in emerging markets. Their complex and less-than-intuitive design make them poor candidates for a novice fisherman selecting his or her first fishing reel. Based upon manufacturer constraints and design requirements, our team lowered the price point and improved the usability of the Okuma Cerros baitcasting fishing reel to make it more appealing to a wider range of consumers, especially in emerging markets. This project resulted in a three-phase redesign: reducing cost via alternative materials and replacing bearings with bushings; prototyping a simplified cast control system; and proposing an improved user interface

Ubiquitous giant Ly α\alpha nebulae around the brightest quasars at z∼3.5z\sim3.5 revealed with MUSE

Direct Ly $\alpha$ imaging of intergalactic gas at $z\sim2$ has recently revealed giant cosmological structures around quasars, e.g. the Slug Nebula (Cantalupo et al. 2014). Despite their high luminosity, the detection rate of such systems in narrow-band and spectroscopic surveys is less than 10%, possibly encoding crucial information on the distribution of gas around quasars and the quasar emission properties. In this study, we use the MUSE integral-field instrument to perform a blind survey for giant Ly $\alpha$ nebulae around 17 bright radio-quiet quasars at $3<z<4$ that does not suffer from most of the limitations of previous surveys. After data reduction and analysis performed with specifically developed tools, we found that each quasar is surrounded by giant Ly $\alpha$ nebulae with projected sizes larger than 100 physical kpc and, in some cases, extending up to 320 kpc. The circularly averaged surface brightness profiles of the nebulae appear very similar to each other despite their different morphologies and are consistent with power laws with slopes $\approx-1.8$. The similarity between the properties of all these nebulae and the Slug Nebula suggests a similar origin for all systems and that a large fraction of gas around bright quasars could be in a relatively "cold" (T$\sim$10$^4$K) and dense phase. In addition, our results imply that such gas is ubiquitous within at least 50 kpc from bright quasars at $3<z<4$ independently of the quasar emission opening angle, or extending up to 200 kpc for quasar isotropic emission.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, 3 Tables, accepted to Ap

Preface

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 1-5, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.02.007.The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a continental shelf sea in the northwest Atlantic, USA that supports highly-productive shellfisheries that are frequently contaminated by toxigenic Alexandrium fundyense blooms and outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), resulting in significant economic and social impacts. Additionally, an emerging threat to these resources is from blooms of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia species that produce domoic acid, the toxin responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). Nearshore shellfish toxins are monitored by state agencies, whereas most offshore stocks have had little or no routine monitoring. As a result, large areas of federal waters have been indefinitely closed or their shellfish beds underexploited because of the potential risk these toxins pose and the lack of scientific understanding and management tools. Patterns and dynamics of Alexandrium blooms and the resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters were examined in a number of research projects, the largest being the Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB)-Gulf of Maine (GOM), a five-year regional program emphasizing field surveys, laboratory studies and numerical modeling. At the completion of the ECOHAB-GOM program (documented in Anderson et al., 2005), great progress was made in understanding A. fundyense blooms and resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters, but there were major unknowns that still required investigation. For example, little was known about A. fundyense bloom dynamics in the waters south and east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and in particular, about the link between blooms in surface waters and toxicity in deep offshore shellfish. Large areas of offshore shellfish beds were off limits to harvest, including a 40,000 km2 region closed during the 2005 bloom and a much larger zone (~80,000 km2) including portions of Georges Bank was closed in 1990 after high levels of PSP toxicity were detected. In recent years, pressures were mounting from industry to open those offshore areas and to develop management strategies so that surfclam (Spisula solidissima), ocean quahog (Arctica islandica), and roe-on sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fisheries could be opened. In response to these unknowns and societal needs, a new multi-investigator program, GOMTOX (Gulf of Maine Toxicity), was formulated and ultimately funded through the NOAA ECOHAB program. GOMTOX was a regional observation and modeling program that investigated the patterns and mechanisms underlying A. fundyense and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and the resulting toxicity in shellfish in the southern GOM and its adjacent New England shelf waters, with special emphasis on the delivery pathways, mechanisms, and dynamics of offshore shellfish toxicity. The GOMTOX team of investigators included 16 principal investigators from eight institutions and, continuing in the ECOHAB-GOM tradition, strong participation from federal and state resource managers as well as representatives of the shellfish industry. This team worked together for over five years, running numerous large-scale survey cruises of Alexandrium cells and cysts, and also supporting industry cruises to collect shellfish from offshore sites including Georges Bank. Other efforts included participation in National Marine Fisheries Service surveys for shellfish (sea scallops, surfclams, and ocean quahogs), numerical modeling studies, deployment of sediment traps, and laboratory and ship-based experiments to investigate grazing and other processes that might regulate blooms and deliver toxins to shellfish in deeper waters. A smaller-scale but concurrent effort collected samples to characterize Pseudo-nitzschia species and their potential toxicity in the region.We gratefully acknowledge the support of NOAA through the ECOHAB program. Partial support for some of the studies contained herein was provided by NSF and NIEHS through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health. Funding for J.L. Martin’s contributions from the Bay of Fundy was provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada and NERACOOS, which is a part of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System, funded in part by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)