Long-term trends in black carbon from biomass and fossil fuel combustion detected at the JRC atmospheric observatory in Ispra

The concentrations of equivalent black carbon deriving from biomass burning [eBC]bb and fossil fuel combustion [eBC]ff have been estimated based on measurements of the aerosol light attenuation at several wavelengths (from infrared to ultraviolet) performed at the atmospheric observatory of the Joint Research Centre located in Ispra (Northern Italy). The data shows repeated seasonal cycles from 2004 to 2016, which suggests that winter time wood burning for domestic heating is the main biomass burning activity in this area. The [eBC]bb/[eBC]ff ratio has increased on average by +5%/yr over the 2007 – 2016 period. We compared these measurement-derived data with CO2 emissions estimated from EDGAR relative to biomass burning for domestic heating and fossil fuel combustion for transport (Diesel) and residential heating (coal + oil) in the 0.4°x0.4° area centred on Ispra. The data shows an increase in CO2 emissions from biomass burning compared to fossil fuel combustion from 2004 to 2008, and a rather constant ratio since then. There is no obvious correlation between the concentrations of [eBC] and the statistics on CO2 emissions from biofuel and fossil fuel combustion over the studied period. The impact of the economic crisis of 2009 on the use of biofuels for domestic heating cannot be rigorously demonstrated, neither from the measurement data nor from the emission inventory.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Methodological overview on the calculation of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities

Improving the estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions from agricultural activities is important not only in relation to the magnitude of the impact of these activities on air quality and climate change, but also to understand their contribution in relation to other activities such as energy, industrial processes, waste etc. The complexity of the existing farming systems brings to the necessity of the transparency and harmonization on how the quantitative estimation of GHG and air pollutant emissions from such activities are performed and reported. The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the different methodologies and parameters needed to estimate air pollutant and GHG emissions from all agricultural sub-sectors, following the EMEP/EEA and IPCC guidelines. The report findings will contribute to the development of a database on activity data and emission factors as input for a tool to support the development of robust agricultural air pollutant emission inventories at Member State level.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Preliminary exploratory impact assessment of short-lived pollutants over the Danube Basin

This report is presented as deliverable D2.3 of work package 2 of the Danube Air Nexus. It presents the results of an exploratory impact assessment of short-lived air pollutant emissions on human health, crop production and near-term climate with a focus on the Danube basin. We use a global reduced-form source receptor air quality model TM5-FASST and a recent global pollutant emission inventory (HTAP V2, 2014) to make an attribution by sector of the various impacts and to explore the challenges and opportunities for possible. Preliminary results show that trans-boundary pollution is significantly contributing to population exposure to PM2.5 in the Danube area. Dominating polluting sectors are residential sector and agriculture. We estimate that annually 170000 premature mortalities can be attributed to PM2.5 pollution in the Danube area, and annual crop losses add up to an economic value of nearly 1 billion US$. This analysis is a first step in a more detailed, country-wise analysis that will be carried out as a follow-up of this report, with an improved version of the model and specifically designed scenarios for the Danube Basin.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries

The Paris Agreement plans global stocktakes, to which the UNFCCC GHG emission inventories are the primary input. To complete this picture, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research provides for all world countries emission timeseries from 1970 until 2016 for CO2 and until 2012 for the other GHGs.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emission control technology

Anthropogenic aerosols have increased significantly since the industrial revolution, driven largely by growth in emissions from energy use in sectors including power generation, industry, and transport. Advances in emission control technologies since around 1970, however, have partially counteracted emissions increases from the above sectors. Using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, we quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and climate response to 1970–2010 aerosol changes associated with the above two policy-relevant emission drivers. Emissions from energy-use growth generate a global mean aerosol ERF (mean ± 1 standard deviation) of −0.31 ± 0.22 W m−2 and result in a global mean cooling (−0.35 ± 0.17 K) and a precipitation reduction (−0.03 ± 0.02 mm d−1 ). By contrast, the avoided emissions from advances in emission control technology, which benefit air quality, generate a global mean ERF of +0.21 ± 0.23 W m−2 , a global warming of +0.10 ± 0.13 K, and global mean precipitation increase of +0.01 ± 0.02 mm d−1 . Despite the relatively small changes in global mean precipitation, these two emission drivers have profound impacts at regional scales, in particular over Asia and Europe. The total net aerosol impacts on climate are dominated by energy-use growth, from Asia in particular. However, technology advances outweigh energy-use growth over Europe and North America. Various non-linear processes are involved along the pathway from aerosol and their precursor emissions to radiative forcing and ultimately to climate responses, suggesting that the diagnosed aerosol forcing and effects must be interpreted in the context of experiment designs. Further, the temperature response per unit aerosol ERF varies significantly across many factors, including location and magnitude of emission changes, implying that ERF, and the related metrics, needs to be used very carefully for aerosols. Future aerosol-related emission pathways have large temporal and spatial uncertainties; our findings provide useful information for both assessing and interpreting such uncertainties, and they may help inform future climate change impact reduction strategies.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Impact evaluation of biomass used in small combustion activities sector on air emissions: Analyses of emissions from Alpine, Adriatic-Ionian and Danube EU macro-regions by using the EDGAR emissions inventory

The emissions from small stationary combustion activities sector, in particular from the energy needs for residential buildings, have significant shares in total emissions of EU28. Therefore, measures to mitigate the emissions from this less regulated sector related to implementation checking are needed. In this study, we analysed the changes in fuel mix for this sector over 1990-2012 period, the emissions and their distribution over the areas covered by European Union Strategy for Alpine macro-region (EUSALP), European Union Strategy for Adriatic and Ionian macro-region (EUSAIR) and European Union Strategy for Danube macro-region (EUSDR). The emissions gridmaps of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) and benzo(a)pyren (BaP) are presented for the year 2010; in specific circumstances, these pollutants are known to produce negative effects on health. For this research, we used the data and information of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) versions v4.3.2 and v4.tox3. Accurate emissions estimates are important to evaluate the impacts of fuel combustion in small stationary combustion activities sector on air quality, human health and crops. Inventories of GHGs, air pollutants and toxic pollutants included in EDGAR are developed by using, as input, fuel consumption from IEA (2014) and emissions factors from scientific literature and official guidebooks such as EMEP/EEA (2013). Working together with emissions inventory experts from selected countries in these macro-regions, the effects of improvements of fuel consumption statistics, biomass in particular, on emissions in the latest years have been quantified by comparing EDGAR data with national data. Besides sectorial emissions estimation, the emissions distribution is also important in the inventory development process. In order to distribute emissions consistently for all countries included in Alpine, Adriatic-Ionian and Danube macro-regions, the EDGAR team upgraded the WEB-based gridding tool with a module for small stationary combustion activities. Emissions estimation and distribution are key elements in preparing a complete input for chemical transport models and further evaluate the impacts of these emissions on air quality, health and crops. This report aims to provide the policy makers and scientists insights on the representativeness and uncertainty of local emissions from the residential sector that play an important role on air quality. These datasets can be used as input for the atmospheric chemical transport models for air pollutants and can illustrate the importance of emission inventory uncertainties and discrepancies.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Global trends of methane emissions and their impacts on ozone concentrations

CH4 is an important greenhouse gas and also a precursor of the air pollutant O3. About 60% of the current global methane is emitted by sources like agriculture, landfills and wastewater, and the production and pipeline transport of fossil fuels, while ca. 40 % is from natural sources. At world level, CH4 emissions and concentrations are still increasing, raising concerns for air quality and climate change. This study, building on evidence from observations and modelling, suggests that CH4 emission reductions can play a key-role in further reducing O3 in Europe and in the world. Since Europe’s contribution to global CH4 emissions is currently only about 6 %, global cooperation to reduce CH4 in countries and regions in- and outside of the EU, will also be essential to reduce related O3 effects in Europe and the world.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Climate change in a changing world: Socio-economic and technological transitions, regulatory frameworks and trends on global greenhouse gas emissions from EDGAR v.5.0

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Regret affects the choice between neoadjuvant therapy and upfront surgery for potentially resectable pancreatic cancer

Background: When treating potentially resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma, therapeutic decisions are left to the sensibility of treating clinicians who, faced with a decision that post hoc can be proven wrong, may feel a sense of regret that they want to avoid. A regret-based decision model was applied to evaluate attitudes to-ward neoadjuvant therapy versus upfront surgery for potentially resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma.Methods: Three clinical scenarios describing high-, intermediate-, and low-risk disease-specific mortality after upfront surgery were presented to 60 respondents (20 oncologists, 20 gastroenterologists, and 20 surgeons). Respondents were asked to report their regret of omission and commission regarding neo-adjuvant chemotherapy on a scale between 0 (no regret) and 100 (maximum regret). The threshold model and a multilevel mixed regression were applied to analyze respondents' attitudes toward neo-adjuvant therapy.Results: The lowest regret of omission was elicited in the low-risk scenario, and the highest regret in the high-risk scenario (P < .001). The regret of the commission was diametrically opposite to the regret of omission (P < .001). The disease-specific threshold mortality at which upfront surgery is favored over the neoadjuvant therapy progressively decreased from the low-risk to the high-risk scenarios (P <=.001). The nonsurgeons working in or with lower surgical volume centers (P = .010) and surgeons (P = .018) accepted higher disease-specific mortality after upfront surgery, which resulted in the lower likelihood of adopting neoadjuvant therapy.Conclusion: Regret drives decision making in the management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Being a surgeon or a specialist working in surgical centers with lower patient volumes reduces the likelihood of recommending neoadjuvant therapy.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Fossil CO2 emissions of all world countries - 2018 Report

The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research provides time series of CO2 emissions for all world countries from 1970 until 2017. In this report, fossil CO2 emissions are presented for the period 1990-2017 as well as the per capita and per GDP trends.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat