Action A3 : analysis of spatial connectivity and preparation of environmental impact assessment guidelines : prepared within A3 action of LIFE DINALP BEAR Project (LIFE13 NAT/SI/0005)

As for other large carnivores in Europe, the brown bear shows a trend of recovering under different management scenarios. However, this recovery comes with specific biological and conservation requirements at individual and population levels often followed by conflicts in a highly humanized continent. To foresee conflicts with humans and to facilitate decisionmaking, spatially-explicit research is required to identify potential habitats and the connectivity of fragmented bear populations. First, we conducted multiscale modeling based on scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) to identify drivers shaping the spaceuse of three bear populations/demographic units (Trentino-Swiss, pre-Alps, and Dinaric), and across 3 scales of space (population distribution, home range establishment, and use of individual home range). Secondly, we also conducted an analysis of the connectivity patterns of suitable habitat patches (nodes) to identify the potential importance of each node to contribute to individual mobility, survival, and population connectivity. Lastly, to support further environmental impact assessment analyses, we identified the most plausible least-cost paths connecting different areas of the same large patch with itself and surrounding patches. Using topographic, landcover, and anthropogenic predictors, our analytical approach transcended from scale dependence bias to produce a predictive map on habitat suitability while delivered information on habitat selection trends for each population. Bears mostly selected forest habitats in all the populationshowever, habitat selection differed for the other variables among populations and scales, especially in the Trentino area where the species selected the most intricate topography. Predictive maps revealed a broad range of suitable but fragmented patches of bear habitat. The largest and most important patches for connectivity occurred in the current distribution range of the species, with the most suitable habitat lying in the pre-Alpine and Dinaric populations. Connecting viable patches to host female homeranges is possible through stepping-stone patches of corridors reachable within the estimated dispersal distance of females. Unified transnational decision-making is required for the conservation of stepping-stone patches, facilitate bear mobility, and ultimately connect bear populations.Podobno kot pri drugih vrstah velikih zveri se tudi pri rjavemu medvedu njegovo območje razširjenosti in številčnost povečujeta v več delih Evrope, in to ob različnih upravljavskih pristopih. Vendar uspešno širjenje vrste vselej zahteva specifične biološke in varstvene pogoje na individualni in populacijski ravni. V gosto poseljeni Evropi širjenje medveda pogosto spremljajo tudi konflikti s človekom. Za pravočasno napovedovanje in racionalno preprečevanje konfliktnih situacij s človekom in s tem lajšanja procesa odločanja so ključne zanesljive prostorske raziskave. Te nam omogočajo prepoznavanje potencialnih habitatov za medveda in območij/koridorjev, ki so ključna za ohranjanje povezljivosti populacije. V prvi fazi pričujoče raziskave smo zato izvedli večstopenjsko hierarhično prostorsko eksplicitno napovedno modeliranje habitatne ustreznosti prostora (scale integrated RSF), s katerim smo lahko prepoznali glavne omejitvene dejavnike rabe prostora za tri obravnavane medvedje populacije oz demografske enote (Trentino-Švicarske, pred-Alpska in Dinarska) na treh prostorskih nivojih (populacijski nivo, nivo območja aktivnosti in nivo notranje rabe znotraj območij aktivnosti). Izvedli smo tudi analizo povezljivosti prostora med osnovnimi zaplatami habitata in opredelili prispevek vsake zaplate k %vitalnosti% celotne medvedje populacije v raziskovalnem območju. Končno smo z namenom lažjega prepoznavanja potreb po prihodnjih presojah vplivov posegov na okolje (PVO) opredelili še najbolj verjetne prehode med habitatnimi krpami (least-cost paths). Na osnovi napovednih spremenljivk, ki opisujejo rabo tal, reliefne značilnosti in prisotnost človeka (npr. ceste, naselja) smo pripravili modele habitatne ustreznosti prostora za medveda in prepoznali tudi razlike v habitatnem izboru med 3 obravnavanimi populacijami in prostorskimi merili. V vseh treh populacijah so medvedi primarno izbirali gozdnata območja, so pa med populacijami in prostorskimi merili opazne razlike v rabi/pomenu ostalih okoljskih spremenljivk. Zlasti odstopa skupina medvedov v Trentinu, za katere je značilna izbira bolj nedostopnih območij (težji, topografsko bolj razgiban teren). Naš prostorsko eksplicitni model kaže, da je v obravnavanem območju veliko habitata, ki je primeren za medveda, vendar pa je zanj značilna močna fragmentiranost. Največje in najbolj pomembne zaplate habitata za povezljivost populacije se nahajajo na območju trenutne razširjenosti vrste, z najbolj primernim habitatom na območju pred-Alpske in Dinarske populacije. Zadostno povezanost najprimernejših zaplat (ki so dovolj velike, da v njih lahko žive samice % medvedke), bi bilo mogoče vzdrževati preko ohranjanja dovolj povezanih habitatnih krp v koridorjih (step-stones). Za ohranjanje zadostne povezanosti prostora/habitatov, zagotavljanja povezav med deli populacij in populacijami medvedov ter za dolgoročno viabilnost medveda v območju Alp in Dinaridov je ključna poenotena % med državami usklajena - politika odločanja in rabe prostora

Recovery of the Alpine lynx Lynx lynx metapopulation

We use the case of the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in the Alps to discuss how to implement existing directives and recommendations, as well as how to integrate biological concepts, into practical conservation and wildlife management. Since 1995 the occurrence of lynx in the Alpine countries has been monitored and reported by the Status and Conservation of the Alpine Lynx Population expert group. Both the area of occupancy and the estimated number of individuals increased from 1995-1999 to 2000-2004. The estimated number of lynx is 120-150 across the Alps and the area of occupancy 27,800 km2, in six distinct sub-areas. In the highly fragmented Alpine habitat lynx populations expand slowly, even in situations of high local density and when suitable habitat is available. Thus, almost 40 years after the first reintroduction, < 20% of the Alps have been recolonized by lynx. In addition to biological and ecological factors, the persistent disagreements about the return of the lynx between conservationists and other land-users, including livestock breeders and hunters, and the political fragmentation of the Alps (with different regional priorities and large carnivore policies), has prevented the creation of a consensus regarding pan-Alpine conservation goals for the lynx and the implementation of conservation measures such as translocations and reintroductions. We discuss possible approaches in the light of new guidelines for population level management plans for large carnivores recently developed on behalf of the European Commissio

Human disturbance is the most limiting factor driving habitat selection of a large carnivore throughout Continental Europe

Habitat selection is a multi-scale process driven by trade-offs between benefits, such as resource abundance, and disadvantages, such as the avoidance of risk. The latter includes human disturbances, to which large carnivores, with their large spatial requirements, are especially sensitive. We investigated the ecological processes underlying multi-scale habitat selection of a large carnivore, namely Eurasian lynx, across European landscapes characterized by different levels of human modification. Using a unique dataset of 125 lynx from 9 study sites across Europe, we compared used and available locations within landscape and home-range scales using a novel Mixed Effect randomForest approach, while considering environmental predictors as proxies for human disturbances and environmental resources. At the landscape scale, lynx avoided roads and human settlements, while at the home-range scale natural landscape features associated with shelter and prey abundance were more important. The results showed sex was of relatively low variable importance for lynx's general habitat selection behaviour. We found increasingly homogeneous responses across study sites with finer selection scales, suggesting that study site differences determined coarse selection, while utilization of resources at the finer selection scale was broadly universal. Thereby describing lynx's requirement, if not preference, for heterogeneous forests and shelter from human disturbances and implying that regional differences in coarse-scale selection are driven by availability rather than preference. These results provide crucial information for conserving this species in human-dominated landscapes, as well as for the first time, to our knowledge, generalising habitat selection behaviour of a large carnivore species at a continental scale.acceptedVersio

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was similar to 10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions

Rehabilitation and release of orphaned Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Europe: Implications for management and conservation.

Rehabilitation of injured or immature individuals has become an increasingly used conservation and management tool. However, scientific evaluation of rehabilitations is rare, raising concern about post-release welfare as well as the cost-effectiveness of spending scarce financial resources. Over the past 20 years, events of juvenile Eurasian lynx presumably orphaned have been observed in many European lynx populations. To guide the management of orphaned lynx, we documented survival, rehabilitation and fate after the release and evaluated the potential relevance of lynx orphan rehabilitation for population management and conservation implications. Data on 320 orphaned lynx was collected from 1975 to 2022 from 13 countries and nine populations. The majority of orphaned lynx (55%) were taken to rehabilitation centres or other enclosures. A total of 66 orphans were released back to nature. The portion of rehabilitated lynx who survived at least one year after release was 0.66. Release location was the best predictor for their survival. Of the 66 released lynx, ten have reproduced at least once (8 females and 2 males). Conservation implications of rehabilitation programmes include managing genetic diversity in small, isolated populations and reintroducing species to historical habitats. The lynx is a perfect model species as most reintroduced populations in Central Europe show significantly lower observed heterozygosity than most of the autochthonous populations, indicating that reintroduction bottlenecks, isolation and post-release management have long-term consequences on the genetic composition of populations. The release of translocated orphans could be a valuable contribution to Eurasian lynx conservation in Europe. It is recommended to release orphans at the distribution edge or in the frame of reintroduction projects instead of a release in the core area of a population where it is not necessary from a demographic and genetic point of view. Rehabilitation programmes can have conservation implications that extend far beyond individual welfare benefits

Prerequisites for coexistence: human pressure and refuge habitat availability shape continental‑scale habitat use patterns of a large carnivore

Context Adjustments in habitat use by large carnivores can be a key factor facilitating their coexistence with people in shared landscapes. Landscape composition might be a key factor determining how large carnivores can adapt to occurring alongside humans, yet broad-scale analyses investigating adjustments of habitat use across large gradients of human pressure and landscape composition are lacking. Objectives Here, we investigate adjustments in habitat use by Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in response to varying availability of refuge habitats (i.e., forests and rugged terrain) and human landscape modifcation. Methods Using a large tracking dataset including 434 individuals from seven populations, we assess functional responses in lynx habitat use across two spatial scales, testing for variation by sex, daytime, and season. Results We found that lynx use refuge habitats more intensively with increasing landscape modifcation across spatial scales, selecting forests most strongly in otherwise open landscapes and rugged terrain in mountainous regions. Moreover, higher forest availability enabled lynx to place their home ranges in more human-modifed landscapes. Human pressure and refuge habitat availability also shaped temporal patterns of lynx habitat use, with lynx increasing refuge habitat use and reducing their use of human-modifed areas during periods of high exposure (daytime) or high vulnerability (postnatal period) to human pressure. Conclusions Our fndings suggest a remarkable adaptive capacity of lynx towards human pressure and underline the importance of refuge habitats across scales for enabling coexistence between large carnivores and people. More broadly, we highlight that the composition of landscapes determines how large carnivores can adapt to human pressure and thus play an important role shaping large carnivore habitat use and distributions.publishedVersio

Integrating animal tracking datasets at a continental scale for mapping Eurasian lynx habitat

Aim: The increasing availability of animal tracking datasets collected across many sites provides new opportunities to move beyond local assessments to enable de-tailed and consistent habitat mapping at biogeographical scales. However, integrating wildlife datasets across large areas and study sites is challenging, as species' varying responses to different environmental contexts must be reconciled. Here, we compare approaches for large-area habitat mapping and assess available habitat for a recolo-nizing large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx).Location: Europe.Methods: We use a continental-scale animal tracking database (450 individuals from 14 study sites) to systematically assess modelling approaches, comparing (1) global strategies that pool all data for training versus building local, site-specific models and combining them, (2) different approaches for incorporating regional variation in habi-tat selection and (3) different modelling algorithms, testing nonlinear mixed effects models as well as machine-learning algorithms.Results: Testing models on training sites and simulating model transfers, global and local modelling strategies achieved overall similar predictive performance. Model performance was the highest using flexible machine-learning algorithms and when incorporating variation in habitat selection as a function of environmental variation. Our best-performing model used a weighted combination of local, site-specific habi-tat models. Our habitat maps identified large areas of suitable, but currently unoccu-pied lynx habitat, with many of the most suitable unoccupied areas located in regions that could foster connectivity between currently isolated populations.Main Conclusions: We demonstrate that global and local modelling strategies can achieve robust habitat models at the continental scale and that considering regional variation in habitat selection improves broad-scale habitat mapping. More generally, we highlight the promise of large wildlife tracking databases for large-area habitat mapping. Our maps provide the first high-resolution, yet continental assessment of lynx habitat across Europe, providing a consistent basis for conservation planning for restoring the species within its former range.publishedVersio