Aztec Economic Woes Continue

Initial estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate that the Mexican economy declined by 8.2 percent from the same period in 2008. The leading economic indicator index of INEGI, the national statistics institute, points to additional economic contraction in the coming months. The Consensus Mexico survey results are in agreement with the INEGI barometer. Panelist projections for real gross domestic product point to a comparatively steep decline. The current consensus forecast calls for a real GDP decrease for Mexico of -4.8 percent for the year as a whole.Mexico Economic Outlook

The Trough Deepens

As the third quarter of 2009 comes to a close, the Mexican economy remains severely battered. The latest INEGI data indicate that the second quarter of 2009 brought with it an annual GDP decrease, in real terms, of nearly 10.3 percent. The current consensus outlook calls for the light at the end of the tunnel to appear in 2010. In spite of this austere outlook, the financial system in Mexico has fared better than it did in prior recessions and the economy seems poised for growth once exports recover. The consensus outlook for real gross domestic product (GDP) calls for a noticeably sharp decline in 2009 of 7.1 percent. Relative to the consensus from last quarter, that represents a sharp downward revision. Individual panelist forecasts range from a drop of 6.5 percent to a steeper decline of 8.2 percent. An important source of the more pessimistic outlook is private consumption. Compared with the previous quarter, Mexican consumers are expected to reduce purchases by 6.9 percent, more than double the rate of decline expected three months ago.Mexico, Macroeconomic Forecast, Consensus Survey

Light at the End of Tunnel?

For 2009 as a whole, this quarter’s consensus outlook anticipates a steep decline of 6.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP). This outlook for inflation-adjusted GDP is not surprising given the panelists expectations for private consumption, as consumers are expected to reduce expenditures by 6.5 percent this year alone. Projections for the government stimulus package have declined substantially, however, with government consumption growth expected to slow to less than 1 percent. Diminished confidence in the Mexican business sector is still expected to cause total fixed investment to shrink at double digit rates. Given the lingering effects of the global economic downturn, the panelists also expect imports and exports to display steep contractions in excess of 11 and 22 percent, respectively. The 2009 consensus figure calls for consumer price increase in excess of 4 percent. Against this backdrop, the panelists expect a 2009 average exchange rate of 13.42 pesos per dollar. The consensus outlook for the 2009 yield on 28-day Treasury Certificates (CETES) holds steady at 5.5 percent, again, this quarter.Mexico, Macroeconomic Outlook, Consensus Survey

Peso Acceptance Patterns in El Paso

This paper examines the acceptance of peso payments, or currency substitution reverse dollarization, by U.S retail firms near the international border with Mexico. Survey data are drawn from a stratified random sample of 586 retailers located in El Paso, Texas, situated across the border from Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Approximately 13 percent of the participant firms accept Mexican pesos in exchange for goods and services. Empirical results indicate that factors such as a firm’s percentage of Spanish speaking employees and distance to the nearest international bridge significantly influence the decision to accept or reject Mexican pesos.Currency Substitution; Mexican Peso; Border Economics; Probit Models

Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026

Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juárez borderplex economy call for steady growth. On the north side of the border, the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026, the last year of the forecast period. Real gross metropolitan product, the broadest measure of local economic activity, is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $31.5 billion (1996 dollars). Better job market conditions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above$20.7 billion by the end of the simulation period. Given this projected state of affairs, the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026. Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances. Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso. As shown in Table 1, total consumption will approximate 45.8 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period.Border Economies; Econometric Forecasting Analysis

Musical instrument effect pedal : an exercise in design and manufacturing

Thesis (S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (leaf 34).It was the goal of this thesis to use skill sets and manufacturing methods discussed or introduced but not practiced in the undergraduate curriculum for mechanical engineers to create a working prototype of a musical instrument effect pedal. Specifically these skills include post-failure metallurgical examinations and circuit board design, and the manufacturing methods include metal forming (not cutting) with a lathe and sand casting. A musical instrument effect was chosen because it is a simple device with relatively simple circuitry, yet it still poses issues of system integration and design problems on multiple fronts. A typical design process was followed. However, in choosing manufacturing processes typical factors were examined (cost, rate, quality, etc.) as well as the stipulation that the process chosen must have been practiced before in the curriculum, forcing the designer to encounter different challenges and learn the detailed workings of an unfamiliar process. Finally recommendations concerning assembly and process modifications for mass production were given in light of the experience gained from building the prototype.by Homar Molina, Jr.S.B

Status of Epidemics and Management of Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 in the Philippines

Epidemics caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4) in Cavendish plantations in the Philippines is a serious threat to the country’s banana industry. The Philippines is the major banana exporter in Asia, with its peak recorded export value of US$ 1.2 billion in 2014. A general disease management approach involves disease scouting and eradication, as well as prevention of spread measures such as quarantine and disinfestations. Such approach, however, is not enough to contain epidemics, especially for small growers, resulting to severe epidemics and abandoned farms. Some shifted to other low-income crops. Resistant Cavendish has been a long-sought strategy to manage Foc TR4. In partnership with government institutions and banana growers, Bioversity International conducted a series of field evaluations of resistant Cavendish somaclones developed and shared by the Taiwan Banana Research Institute. GCTCV 218 and GCTCV 219 proved the most suitable options. In commercial trials, they remained resistant even after 4 ratoons. GCTV 218 (moderate resistance) has bigger bunches and good fruit quality and is thus preferred by growers. GCTCV 219 (high resistance) is recommended for the rehabilitation of severely affected farms, especially for small growers. GCTCV 219 has a sweet fruit, but its agronomic characteristics are inferior to GCTCV 218. GCTCV 218 is now widely commercially adopted. Using the GCTCV resistant variety is a breakthrough in mitigating the threat of TR4, allaying the fatalistic predictions of Western scientists that the traded Cavendish will soon disappear in the market because of Foc TR4. In the absence of varieties from other breeding programs, the GCTCVs seem to be the best options farmers could have to save their livelihoods

Substratos para armazenar nematóides entomopatogênicos (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae, Heterorhabditidae)

Os nematóides entomopatogênicos apresentam baixa viabilidade em condições de laboratório. Com o objetivo de avaliar substratos para prolongar a sobrevivência dos nematóides entomopatogênicos, suspensões de Heterorhabditis sp. JPM4 e Steinernema carpocapsae All (3.000 JI mL-1) foram adicionadas aos substratos solo, areia fina, areia grossa, espuma, argila expandida, esponja fenólica, ágar, amido de milho, Plantmax® e água. Estes foram colocados em placas de Petri (5 cm) e mantidos a 16 ± 1°C. As avaliações foram feitas após 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 e 180 dias, com três repetições para cada dia. Após 180 dias, para S. carpocapsae All o substrato espuma (57,5%) manteve maior porcentagem de juvenis infectantes (JI) vivos; argila expandida (28,4%), Plantmax® (9,3%) e esponja fenólica (11%) não foram eficientes para manutenção da sobrevivência. Para Heterorhabditis sp. JPM4, espuma (55,6%), areia grossa (53,1%) e areia fina (50,6%) proporcionaram maior sobrevivência dos JI ao final de 180 dias. Ágar (19,3%), esponja fenólica (11,6%) e Plantmax® (10,7%) tiveram índices de sobrevivência inferiores ao da testemunha (29,7%). O uso de substrato adequado pode propiciar maior sobrevivência de JI.The survival of entomopathogenic nematodes under laboratory conditions is low. With the aim of evaluating substrates to extend the survival of entomopathogenic nematodes, suspensions of Heterorhabditis sp. JPM4 and Steinernema carpocapsae All (3,000 IJ mL-1) were added to dirt, fine sand, coarse sand, foam, expanded clay, phenolic foam, agar, corn starch, Plantmax®, and water. The substrates were placed on Petri dishes (5 cm) and kept at 16 ± 1°C. Survival evaluations were made after 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 days, with three replicates. After 180 d, a greater percentage of S. carpocapsae infective juveniles (IJs) were still alive in the foam treatment (57.5%) as compared to other treatments, while expanded clay (28.4%), Plantmax® (9.3%) and phenolic foam (11%) were not effective in maintaining the survival rate. Foam (55.6%), coarse sand (53.1%), and fine sand (50.6%) provided greater Heterorhabditis sp. JPM4 IJ survival at 180 days. Agar (19.3%), phenolic foam (11.6%), and Plantmax® (10.7%) had lower survival indices than the control (29.7%). The use of an appropriate substrate can provide greater IJ survival

Aztec Economic Woes Continue

Initial estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate that the Mexican economy declined by 8.2 percent from the same period in 2008. The leading economic indicator index of INEGI, the national statistics institute, points to additional economic contraction in the coming months. The Consensus Mexico survey results are in agreement with the INEGI barometer. Panelist projections for real gross domestic product point to a comparatively steep decline. The current consensus forecast calls for a real GDP decrease for Mexico of -4.8 percent for the year as a whole