Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting 3: Identifying the Choice Set and Estimating Binary Choice Models for Technology-Based Alternatives

Previous papers in this series have presented a conceptual model of the individual decision to telecommute and explored relationships among constraints, preference, and choice. A related paper has developed a binary model of the preference for home-based telecommuting. Noting that there is a wide gap between preferring to telecommute (88% of the sample) and actually telecommuting (13%), this paper develops binary logit models of telecommuting adoption. Two approaches to dealing with constraints are compared: incorporating them directly into the utility function, and using them to define the choice set. Models using the first approach appear to be statistically superior in this analysis, explaining 63-64% of the information in the data. Variables significant to choice include those relating to work and travel drives, and awareness, manager support, job suitability, technology, and discipline constraints. The best model was used to analyze the impact of relaxing three key constraints on the 355 people in the sample for whom telecommuting was previously identified to be a Preferred Impossible Alternative. When unawareness, lack of manager support, and job unsuitability constraints are relaxed, 28% of the people in the PIA category would be expected to adopt telecommuting. The importance of behavioral models to accurately forecasting telecommuting adoption is emphasized and is suggested to have wider implications for predicting technology-based activity changes.telecommuting, teleworking, discrete choice, choice set

Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting 2: A Case of the Preferred Impossible Alternative

A conceptual model of the choice to telecommute was advanced in an earlier paper (Mokhtarian and Salomon, 1994). In this paper, we present empirical data from a non-representative sample of 628 City of San Diego employees on key variables and relationships in that model. The relationships among possibility, preference, and choice are examined. A key finding is the existence of a large group of people (57% of the sample) for whom telecommuting is a Preferred Impossible Alternative. Dichotomous and continuous constraints are distinguished, and three dichotomous constraints are defined. Lack of awareness is active for 4%, job unsuitability for 44%, and manager disapproval for 51% of the sample. For 68% of the sample, at least one of these constraints is active. Even among those for whom none of the dichotomous constraints is in force, most people do not choose telecommuting due to the presence of active continuous constraints. For only 11% of the entire sample, telecommuting is possible, preferred, and chosen. The potential impacts of self-selection bias are estimated, and sampling bias is qualitatively assessed. This analysis provides a crude but useful estimate of the potential of telecommuting in the population, and more specifically, the relative share of potential telecommuters who are prevented by key dichotomous constraints from choosing that option.telecommuting, teleworking

Trivariate Probit Models of Pre-purchase/ Purchase Shopping Channel Choice: Clothing Purchases in Northern California

This study analyzes the joint choice of pre-purchase and purchase shopping channels for clothing purchases, using data collected from an internet-based survey of two university towns in Northern California (final Ns=390 and 452). Descriptive analysis clearly shows dependence across these three choices: in particular, the “sticky” combinations of {only-store pre-purchase + store purchase} and {only internet pre-purchase + internet purchase} occur substantially more often than independent choices would predict. We develop two trivariate probit (TVP) models, consisting of two binary choice equations for the pre-purchase channel (respectively measuring the use of store or not, and the use of internet or not) and one binary choice equation for the purchase channel (store or internet). One model allows prior channel purchase experience variables to enter while the other model excludes them. The results further confirm the dependency among pre-purchase and purchase channel choices, with all three error term correlations strongly significant. In addition to breadth and depth of experience variables and channel-specific perceptions (post-purchase satisfaction, cost savings, enjoyment, and convenience), significant explanatory variables include general shopping-related attitudes (pro-exercise, shop enjoyment, and store enjoyment), context variables, and sociodemographic traits (age and income). Prediction of joint choice probabilities was considerably better for the TVP model than for independent binary choice models, confirming the value of simultaneously modeling pre-purchase and purchase channel choice bundle

The Relationship of Vehicle Type Choice to Personality, Lifestyle, Attitudinal, and Demographic Variables

This research focuses on exploring the travel attitude, personality lifestyle, and mobility factors affecting individuals' vehicle type choices, as well as developing a disaggregate choice model of vehicle type based on both these factors and typical demographic variables. A literature review looks at studies related to vehicle type choice models, vehicle use models, and mobility. The study then describes the characteristics of vehicle classification model used in the study, and the key explanatory variables included in the vehicle type choice model. The relationships of vehicle type to travel attitude personality, lifestyle, mobility, and demographic variables are then individually examined u sing one-way ANOVA and chi-squared tests. A multinomial logit model is then developed for vehicle type choice

Determinants of Subjective Assessments of Personal Mobility

This report focuses on the development of single-equation models for Subjective Mobility. It works with the premise that although the demand for travel is primarily derived from the demand to engage in spatially-separated activities, travel itself has an intrinsically positive utility that contributes to the demand for it. The affinity for travel can vary by person, mode, and purpose of travel. This report attempts to bring a better understanding of the causes and effects of that affinity for travel by studying 11 categories of key variables. It also looks toward understanding how measures such a frequency of trips, average trip distance, total distance traveled and total travel time are combined to construct subjective assessment of actual mobility. The report also focuses on identifying other factors that increase or diminish individuals' subjective assessment of their mobility. Data for this study was derived from a survey mailed to 8,000 randomly-selected households in three neighborhood of the San Francisco Bay Area

A Survey of Multitasking by Northern California Commuters: Description of the Data Collection Process

An empirical study investigated whether multitasking could affect the utility of travel. This report describes the survey instruments and data collection process that yielded a rich dataset

The Effects of Gender on Commuter Behavior Changes in the Context of a Major Freeway Construction

To study the commuter travel behavior impacts of a nine-week reconstruction of Interstate 5 (I-5) in downtown Sacramento, California, a series of three internet-based surveys was conducted. This paper offers a preliminary analysis of the first two of those surveys, focusing on the role of gender in commuters’ responses. Avoiding rush hour and changing route were the most common responses, and women were more likely than men to employ them. Among the changes that reduce vehicle-miles traveled, increasing transit use and increasing telecommuting were the most common. Overall, women were 21% more likely to make at least one change than men were. A binary logit model of the choice to increase transit use suggests that persuading current transit users to increase their transit use was easier than convincing nonusers to switch. Respondents who heard about the increased level of transit service were more likely to increase transit use. Employer transit subsidies supported increases in transit use (but only for women), while variable work hours (for women) discouraged them. Men in managerial/administration and women in larger households were also more likely to increase their transit use

Impacts of Home-Based Telecommuting on Vehicle-Miles Traveled: A Nationwide Time Series Analysis

This study estimates the impact of telecommuting on personal transportation using a multi-variate time series analysis of aggregate nationwide data spanning 1966-1999 for all variables except telecommuting, and 1988-1998 for telecommuting. Three dependent variables were modeled, in direct and per-capita forms: ground vehicle miles traveled (VMT), airline passenger miles traveled (PMT), and the sum of those two variable, loosely referred to as total miles traveled. The first part of the analysis modeled each dependent variable (1966-1999) as a function of conventional variables representing economic activity, the cost of transportation transportation supply, and demographics. In the second part of the study, the residuals of the first part (1988-1998) were modeled as a function of the number of telecommuters. Secondary data sources were used for the study. After the modeling results are presented, the study offers several public policy recommendations, based on the conclusion that telecommuting appears to have a statistically significant, albeit modes in magnitude, effect on reducing travel