The University of Washington Ice-Liquid Discriminator (UWILD) improves single-particle phase classifications of hydrometeors within Southern Ocean clouds using machine learning

Mixed-phase Southern Ocean clouds are challenging to simulate, and their representation in climate models is an important control on climate sensitivity. In particular, the amount of supercooled water and frozen mass that they contain in the present climate is a predictor of their planetary feedback in a warming climate. The recent Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) vastly increased the amount of in situ data available from mixed-phase Southern Ocean clouds useful for model evaluation. Bulk measurements distinguishing liquid and ice water content are not available from SOCRATES, so single-particle phase classifications from the Two-Dimensional Stereo (2D-S) probe are invaluable for quantifying mixed-phase cloud properties. Motivated by the presence of large biases in existing phase discrimination algorithms, we develop a novel technique for single-particle phase classification of binary 2D-S images using a random forest algorithm, which we refer to as the University of Washington Ice-Liquid Discriminator (UWILD). UWILD uses 14 parameters computed from binary image data, as well as particle inter-arrival time, to predict phase. We use liquid-only and ice-dominated time periods within the SOCRATES dataset as training and testing data. This novel approach to model training avoids major pitfalls associated with using manually labeled data, including reduced model generalizability and high labor costs. We find that UWILD is well calibrated and has an overall accuracy of 95 % compared to 72 % and 79 % for two existing phase classification algorithms that we compare it with. UWILD improves classifications of small ice crystals and large liquid drops in particular and has more flexibility than the other algorithms to identify both liquid-dominated and ice-dominated regions within the SOCRATES dataset. UWILD misclassifies a small percentage of large liquid drops as ice. Such misclassified particles are typically associated with model confidence below 75 % and can easily be filtered out of the dataset. UWILD phase classifications show that particles with area-equivalent diameter (Deq) \u3c 0.17 mm are mostly liquid at all temperatures sampled, down to -40 °. Larger particles (Deq\u3e0.17 mm) are predominantly frozen at all temperatures below 0 °. Between 0 and 5 °, there are roughly equal numbers of frozen and liquid mid-sized particles (0.170.33 mm) are mostly frozen. We also use UWILD\u27s phase classifications to estimate sub-1 Hz phase heterogeneity, and we show examples of meter-scale cloud phase heterogeneity in the SOCRATES dataset

Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET): Following the Evolution of Boundary Layer Cloud Systems with the NSFNCAR GV

The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) study was designed to describe and explain the evolution of the boundary layer aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic structures along trajectories within the North Pacific trade winds. The study centered on seven round trips of the National Science FoundationNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NSFNCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) between Sacramento, California, and Kona, Hawaii, between 7 July and 9 August 2015. The CSET observing strategy was to sample aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer properties upwind from the transition zone over the North Pacific and to resample these areas two days later. Global Forecast System forecast trajectories were used to plan the outbound flight to Hawaii with updated forecast trajectories setting the return flight plan two days later. Two key elements of the CSET observing system were the newly developed High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Cloud Radar (HCR) and the high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL). Together they provided unprecedented characterizations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation structures that were combined with in situ measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and turbulence properties. The cloud systems sampled included solid stratocumulus infused with smoke from Canadian wildfires, mesoscale cloudprecipitation complexes, and patches of shallow cumuli in very clean environments. Ultraclean layers observed frequently near the top of the boundary layer were often associated with shallow, optically thin, layered veil clouds. The extensive aerosol, cloud, drizzle, and boundary layer sampling made over open areas of the northeast Pacific along 2-day trajectories during CSET will be an invaluable resource for modeling studies of boundary layer cloud system evolution and its governing physical processes

Gammapy: A Python package for gamma-ray astronomy

In this article, we present Gammapy, an open-source Python package for the analysis of astronomical $\gamma$-ray data, and illustrate the functionalities of its first long-term-support release, version 1.0. Built on the modern Python scientific ecosystem, Gammapy provides a uniform platform for reducing and modeling data from different $\gamma$-ray instruments for many analysis scenarios. Gammapy complies with several well-established data conventions in high-energy astrophysics, providing serialized data products that are interoperable with other software packages. Starting from event lists and instrument response functions, Gammapy provides functionalities to reduce these data by binning them in energy and sky coordinates. Several techniques for background estimation are implemented in the package to handle the residual hadronic background affecting $\gamma$-ray instruments. After the data are binned, the flux and morphology of one or more $\gamma$-ray sources can be estimated using Poisson maximum likelihood fitting and assuming a variety of spectral, temporal, and spatial models. Estimation of flux points, likelihood profiles, and light curves is also supported. After describing the structure of the package, we show, using publicly available $\gamma$-ray data, the capabilities of Gammapy in multiple traditional and novel $\gamma$-ray analysis scenarios, such as spectral and spectro-morphological modeling and estimations of a spectral energy distribution and a light curve. Its flexibility and power are displayed in a final multi-instrument example, where datasets from different instruments, at different stages of data reduction, are simultaneously fitted with an astrophysical flux model.Comment: 26 pages, 16 figure

Investigating Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Budgets and Variability

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles are an important feature of the climate system due in major part to their effect on marine boundary layer clouds, but the factors controlling their variability are not fully understood. A better understanding of the budget and controlling factors of these aerosol particles is needed to evaluate the effect of anthropogenic perturbations on aerosol concentrations and ultimately cloud radiative properties. Using data primarily collected during the MAGIC field campaign in the northeast Pacific, complemented by aerosol and meteorological reanalysis, we consider a simplified aerosol budget consisting of advection, precipitation loss, wind-mediated sea-surface generation, and entrainment from the lower free-troposphere. A major feature in MBL aerosol variability is the strong seasonal cycle, with concentrations observed to be approximately 50 cm$^{-3}$ in winter and 100 cm$^{-3}$ in the summer in the focus region (northeast Pacific). We explore seasonal differences in the concentration of accumulation mode aerosol particle number concentration using a steady-state model, which captures approximately two-thirds of the observed summer-winter difference. We find that precipitation differences account for approximately 53\% of the seasonal difference in aerosol particle concentrations, seasonal differences in advection account for 25\%, and wind-driven surface sources and entrainment account for 18\% and 4\% respectively. Secondary particle formation and growth from smaller modes are not considered. The longitudinal gradient in aerosol particle number concentration is well-reproduced in summer, but overestimated in winter. Sensitivity analysis weighted by estimated variable uncertainty show that uncertainty in aerosol particle advection and free-tropospheric aerosol concentrations are the largest contributors to modeled aerosol uncertainty. On subseasonal timescales, high aerosol concentration events (in the top quartile of 6-hourly means) are found to correlate with shallow, non-precipitating boundary layers with high overlying aerosol concentrations, with no correlation with wind speed; this was observed in both summer and winter

Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Mesoscale Organization: Identification, Influencing Factors, and Lagrangian Evolution

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2020Marine low clouds are an important feature of the climate system, cooling the planet due to their high albedo and warm temperatures. They display a variety of different mesoscale organizations, which are tied to the varying environmental conditions in which they occur. This dissertation explores the drivers of marine low cloud variability using an observational perspective that draws upon aircraft, satellite, and reanalysis data, and uses the application of a number of machine learning techniques. The focus is largely though not exclusively on mesoscale organization. In the first part of this work, data from the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign over the Pacific stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition are organized into 18 Lagrangian cases suitable for study and future modeling, made possible by the use of a track-and-resample flight strategy. Analysis of these cases shows that 2-day Lagrangian coherence of long-lived species (CO and O3) is high (r=0.93 and 0.73, respectively), but that of subcloud aerosol, MBL depth, and cloud properties is limited. Although they span a wide range in meteorological conditions, most sampled air masses show a clear transition when considering 2-day changes in cloudiness (-31%averaged over all cases), MBL depth (1560 m), estimated inversion strength (EIS; 22.2K), and decoupling, agreeing with previous satellite studies and theory. Changes in precipitation and droplet number were less consistent. The aircraft-based analysis is augmented by geostationary satellite retrievals and reanalysis data along Lagrangian trajectories between aircraft sampling times, documenting the evolution of cloud fraction, cloud droplet number concentration, EIS, and MBL depth. An expanded trajectory set spanning the summer of 2015 is used to show that the CSET-sampled air masses were representative of the season, with respect to EIS and cloud fraction. Two Lagrangian case studies attractive for future modeling are presented with aircraft and satellite data. The first features a clear Sc–Cu transition involving MBL deepening and decoupling with decreasing cloud fraction, and the second undergoes a much slower cloud evolution despite a greater initial depth and decoupling state. Potential causes for the differences in evolution are explored, including free-tropospheric humidity, subsidence, surface fluxes, and microphysics. The remaining work focuses on the mesoscale organization of marine low clouds. A convolutional neural network (CNN) model is trained to classify 128 km by 128 km scenes of marine low clouds into six categories: stratus, open-cellular mesoscale cellular convection (MCC), closed-cellular MCC, disorganized MCC, clustered cumulus, and suppressed cumulus. Overall model test accuracy was approximately 90%. This model is applied to three years of data in the southeast Pacific, as well as the 2015 northeast Pacific summer for comparison with the CSET campaign. Meteorological variables related to marine low cloud processes are composited by mesoscale cloud type, allowing for the identification of distinct meteorological regimes. Presentation of MCC is largely consistent with previous literature, both in terms of geographic distribution boundary layer structure, and cloud-controlling factors. The two more novel types, clustered and suppressed cumulus, are examined in more detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the presentation of marine shallow mesoscale convective self-aggregation found in previous large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud regimes are found to be well-separated by variables associated with a low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Divergence is consistent with near-surface inflow into clustered regimes and outflow from suppressed regimes. To further understand the dependencies of mesoscale cloud type on environmental factors, a second classification model is built. This uses a random forest of decision trees to predict cloud type, but instead of using an image of a cloud scene, mesoscale averages of meteorological variables are used as inputs. The model uses the three-year dataset output from the CNN model for training, and overall accuracy is approximately 50%. Rotated principal component analysis of the meteorological variables is used to create a set of decorrelated features on which to train the model, allowing for the application of certain statistical analyses which rely on uncorrelated data. Permutation feature importance is used to quantify which variables are most important for correct prediction of cloud mesoscale organization. Overall, temperature and stability are approximately equally important; for correctly distinguishing between open-MCC and closed-MCC, stability is the most important feature, and for correctly distinguishing between suppressed and clustered cumulus, surface divergence is the most important variable. Partial dependence analysis is used to show the relationship between each input variable and the likelihood of observing each cloud type, and 2-dimensional partial dependence analysis shows bimodal distributions of MCC types, consistent with their subtropical and midlatitude incarnations. The random forest model is able to reproduce the geographic distributions of cloud type occurrences

Cloud system evolution in the trades (CSET): Following the evolution of boundary layer cloud systems with the NSF-NCAR GV

The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) study was designed to describe and explain the evolution of the boundary layer aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic structures along trajectories within the North Pacific trade winds. The study centered on seven round trips of the National Science Foundation–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF–NCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) between Sacramento, California, and Kona, Hawaii, between 7 July and 9 August 2015. The CSET observing strategy was to sample aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer properties upwind from the transition zone over the North Pacific and to resample these areas two days later. Global Forecast System forecast trajectories were used to plan the outbound flight to Hawaii with updated forecast trajectories setting the return flight plan two days later. Two key elements of the CSET observing system were the newly developed High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Cloud Radar (HCR) and the high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL). Together they provided unprecedented characterizations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation structures that were combined with in situ measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and turbulence properties. The cloud systems sampled included solid stratocumulus infused with smoke from Canadian wildfires, mesoscale cloud–precipitation complexes, and patches of shallow cumuli in very clean environments. Ultraclean layers observed frequently near the top of the boundary layer were often associated with shallow, optically thin, layered veil clouds. The extensive aerosol, cloud, drizzle, and boundary layer sampling made over open areas of the northeast Pacific along 2-day trajectories during CSET will be an invaluable resource for modeling studies of boundary layer cloud system evolution and its governing physical processes

Observations Pertaining to Precipitation within the Northeast Pacific Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Abstract Three genuine stratocumulus-to-cumulus transitions sampled during the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign are documented. The focus is on Lagrangian evolution of in situ precipitation, thought to exceed radar/lidar retrieved values because of Mie scattering. Two of the three initial stratocumulus cases are pristine [cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) of ~22 cm−3] but occupied boundary layers of different depths, while the third is polluted (Nd ~ 225 cm−3). Hourly satellite-derived cloud fraction along Lagrangian trajectories indicate that more quickly deepening boundary layers tend to transition faster, into more intense but more occasional precipitation. These transitions begin either in the morning or late afternoon, suggesting that preceding night processes can precondition or delay the inevitable transition. The precipitation shifts toward larger drop sizes throughout the transition as the boundary layers deepen, with aerosol concentrations only diminishing in two of the three cases. Ultraclean (Nd < 1 cm−3) cumulus clouds evolved from pristine stratocumulus cloud with unusually high precipitation rates occupying a shallow, well-mixed boundary layer. Results from a simple one-dimensional evaporation model and from radar/lidar retrievals suggest subcloud evaporation likely increases throughout the transition. This, coupled with larger drop sizes capable of lowering the latent cooling profile, facilitates the transition to more surface-driven convection. The coassociation between boundary layer depth and precipitation does not provide definitive conclusions on the isolated effect of precipitation on the pace of the transition. Differences between the initial conditions of the three examples provide opportunities for further modeling studies

Cloud, Aerosol, and Boundary Layer Structure across the Northeast Pacific Stratocumulus–Cumulus Transition as Observed during CSET

Abstract During the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field study, 14 research flights of the National Science Foundation G-V sampled the stratocumulus–cumulus transition between Northern California and Hawaii and its synoptic variability. The G-V made vertically resolved measurements of turbulence, cloud microphysics, aerosol characteristics, and trace gases. It also carried dropsondes and a vertically pointing W-band radar and lidar. This paper summarizes these observations with the goals of fostering novel comparisons with theory, models and reanalyses, and satellite-derived products. A longitude–height binning and compositing strategy mitigates limitations of sparse sampling and spatiotemporal variability. Typically, a 1-km-deep decoupled stratocumulus-capped boundary layer near California evolved into 2-km-deep precipitating cumulus clusters surrounded by patches of thin stratus that dissipated toward Hawaii. Low cloud cover was correlated with estimated inversion strength more than with cloud droplet number, even though the thickest clouds were generally precipitating and ultraclean layers indicative of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction were common west of 140°W. Accumulation-mode aerosol concentration correlated well with collocated cloud droplet number concentration and was typically largest near the surface. Aitken mode aerosol concentration was typically larger in the free troposphere. Wildfire smoke produced spikes of aerosol and trace gases on some flights. CSET data are compared with space–time collocated output from MERRA-2 reanalysis and from the CAM6 climate model run with winds and temperature nudged toward this reanalysis. The reanalysis compares better with the observed relative humidity than does nudged CAM6. Both vertically diffuse the stratocumulus cloud layer versus observations. MERRA-2 slightly underestimates in situ carbon monoxide measurements and underestimates ozone depletion within the boundary layer

Lagrangian Evolution of the Northeast Pacific Marine Boundary Layer Structure and Cloud during CSET

Abstract Flight data from the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign over the Pacific stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition are organized into 18 Lagrangian cases suitable for study and future modeling, made possible by the use of a track-and-resample flight strategy. Analysis of these cases shows that 2-day Lagrangian coherence of long-lived species (CO and O3) is high (r = 0.93 and 0.73, respectively), but that of subcloud aerosol, MBL depth, and cloud properties is limited. Although they span a wide range in meteorological conditions, most sampled air masses show a clear transition when considering 2-day changes in cloudiness (−31% averaged over all cases), MBL depth (+560 m), estimated inversion strength (EIS; −2.2 K), and decoupling, agreeing with previous satellite studies and theory. Changes in precipitation and droplet number were less consistent. The aircraft-based analysis is augmented by geostationary satellite retrievals and reanalysis data along Lagrangian trajectories between aircraft sampling times, documenting the evolution of cloud fraction, cloud droplet number concentration, EIS, and MBL depth. An expanded trajectory set spanning the summer of 2015 is used to show that the CSET-sampled air masses were representative of the season, with respect to EIS and cloud fraction. Two Lagrangian case studies attractive for future modeling are presented with aircraft and satellite data. The first features a clear Sc–Cu transition involving MBL deepening and decoupling with decreasing cloud fraction, and the second undergoes a much slower cloud evolution despite a greater initial depth and decoupling state. Potential causes for the differences in evolution are explored, including free-tropospheric humidity, subsidence, surface fluxes, and microphysics