A game theory approach to the Iranian forest industry raw material market

Dynamic game theory is applied to analyze the timber market in northern Iran as a duopsony. The Nash equilibrium and the dynamic properties of the system based on marginal adjustments are determined. When timber is sold, the different mills use mixed strategies to give sealed bids. It is found that the decision probability combination of the different mills follow a special form of attractor and that centers should be expected to appear in unconstrained games. Since the probabilities of different strategies are always found in the interval [0,1], the boundaries of the feasible set are sometimes binding constraints. Then, the attractor becomes a constrained probability orbit. In the studied game, the probability that the Nash equilibrium will be reached is almost zero. The dynamic properties of timber prices derived via the duopsony game model are also found in the real empirical price series from the north of Iran

Optimal Forest Road Density Based on Skidding and Road Construction Costs in Iranian Caspian Forests

Information on the productivity, costs and applications of the logging system is a key component in the evaluation of management plans for the rehabilitation and utilization of Caspian forests. Skidding and road construction costs are expensive forest operations. Determining the optimum forest road network density is one of the most important factors in sustainable forest management. Logging method is an important factor to determine the optimum road network density. In this research, in order to determine the optimum road network density, skidding cost and road construction cost were calculated. Linear programming model was used in order to reduce the skidding costs and to determine the optimal forest road network density. Our aim was to determine the minimum skidding cost for Timber Jack and Clark skidders for different average skidding distance. The results showed that it is less costly if Clark skidder is used for skidding. Then the optimal road network density at this manner was 8 m/ha

Performance evaluation of forest management plans (Case study: Iranian Caspian forests)

The aim of this research was to measure the relative efficiency of forest management plans in north of Iran. In order to fulfill the research, data of 12 forest management plans were collected from the financial balance sheets of Shafaroud Forest Company during a ten years period. First of all, basic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models (BCC and CCR) were used to determine the efficiency. Then, due to the structure of the forest management plan, cost efficiency and revenue efficiency models based on DEA were used in order to measure the efficiency. Results indicated that 8 forest management plans were efficient based on BCC and CCR models. Furthermore, the results indicated that only one forest management plan was efficient based on cost efficiency and revenue efficiency models. These results could be due to the input oriented properties of the models, rational management and optimal use of resources

Economically optimal cutting cycle in a beech forest, Iranian Caspian Forests

The aim of this study was to determine the optimal cutting cycle in an uneven-aged beech forest in the North of Iran. First of all, a logistic growth model was determined for an uneven aged forest. Then, the stumpage price was predicted via an autoregressive model. The average stumpage price of beech was derived from actual timber, round wood, fire and pulpwood prices at road side minus the variable harvesting costs. Price and growth models were used in order to determine the optimal cutting cycle under different rates of interest and setup costs. The Faustmann’s model was used for optimal cutting cycle. The results indicated that the optimal cutting cycle will decrease if the rate of interest increased. The results also indicated that if the setup costs increase, the optimal cutting cycle will also increase

Measuring the performance and returns to scale of forest management plans using data envelopment analysis approach (Case study; Iranian Caspian forests)

The aim of this study was to assess the relative efficiency of the Iranian forest management plans using the nonparametric method – Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a well-known and robust technique for measuring the relative efficiency of organizations. The relative efficiency of forest management plans was calculated using the most frequency DEA models such as global technical efficiency (CCR), local pure technical efficiency (BCC) and Scale Efficiency (SE) on 12 units in Guilan Province, Iran. According to the results of CCR and BCC models, the efficiency averaged 0.83 and 0.93, respectively. The results of SE discussed a worrying aspect of these units efficiency; namely, there were only 3 efficient forest management plans (Shafaroud, Nav and Fiyab). However, the Scale Efficiency Index (SEI) brings out some interesting points; there were approximately 58% (7 units out of 12) under Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS). Therefore, the managers of forest management plans should focus more on the plans under IRS, so that they will have the opportunity to become more efficient through growth, otherwise managers will not be able to promote their overall productivity

Role of political power in forest administration policy of Iran

The area of natural forest in Iran is approximately 12.4 million hectares, comprising 7.5% of the total area of Iran. Forest management in the country was changed to the legislature after order of the Forest Nationalization Law in 1963. With civilization development, pressure on forests was significantly increased. In the early 20^th century a system of development planning began as a series of seven-year cycles, focusing on accelerating economic growth by improving capital-intensive industries and replacing religious and social traditions with rapid modernization. There are some essential challenges ahead of the common assets administration of the Hyrcanian forests which have many conflicts between including executive associations and regulations. So that, forest policy has been structurally shifted in policy sector, from private administration to governmental management. This paper has provided a literature review discussing the forest policy administration in Iran and its essential structural shifts during the last century as well as data collection from relevant governmental and private organizations

Goal programming and analytical hierarchy process approaches for sustainable plantation

The aim of this study was to develop an optimal sustainable forest plantation based on goal programming and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. This study was carried out in Guilan province, north of Iran. First of all, the ecological capability of the study area for plantation establishment/maintenance was evaluated based on multi-factor method and specific ecological Makhdoum Model by means of GIS tools. Then goal programming approach as a multi criteria optimization technique was used for optimization. Therefore, ecological, economic and social aims were considered. Carbon sequestration was chosen as an ecological criterion. To estimate the total aboveground biomass and carbon content stem volume, stem biomass and crown biomass were measured using allometric equations. The net present value was also calculated using stumpage price, harvesting cost, consumer price index, annual growth, interest rate and optimal rotating. Estimated required labour for different plantation items were obtained from data base of Iranian Forests Rangelands and Watershed Management Organization. In order to achieve all purposes simultaneously, the goal programming technique was applied. Results indicated that using mathematical modeling provided a more logical set of consequences compared to using ecological modeling. The ability to change the weighting of the variables in the mathematical equations enabled decision makers to choose the optimal solution. Final results indicated that the appropriate plantation area for each species are as follow: Acer velutinum (810 ha), Alnus subcordata (348 ha), Pinus taeda (235 ha), Tilia begonifolia (165 ha), Quercus castanifolia (149 ha), Pinus nigra (110 ha) and Fraxinus excelsior (0 ha)

Investigation of wood production and trading in Iran

The relation between wood export and import of Iran and a number of major macroeconomic variables,such as oil price, gross domestic production, population, exchange rate, unemployment rate, inflation and domesticwood production during 1980–2014 were described. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysiswere used for data analysis. The results showed that there is a significant relation at a significance level of 5% betweenwood export as a dependent variable and oil price, GDP, population, exchange rate and domestic wood production asindependent variables. Meanwhile, there is also a significant relation between wood import and oil price, exchangerate and domestic wood production. The findings also indicate that oil price as an independent variable has the highest effect on wood import in Iran during the studied period