Ex-post effects of circuit breakers in crisis and calm markets: long horizon evidence from wide-band Malaysian price limits

Purpose – Despite regulatory claims of straitening volatility and preventing crashes, evidences on circuit breakers’ ability to achieve so are nonconclusive. While previous scholars studies general performances of circuit breakers, the authors examine whether Malaysian price limits aggravate volatility, impede price discovery, and interfere with trading activities in both tranquil and stressful periods. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a combination of parametric and nonparametric techniques consistent with Kim and Rhee (1997) to examine the major ex-post hypotheses in circuit breaker research. Findings – For calm markets, the authors find significant success of upper limits in tempering volatility with low trading interference. Lower limits show mixed results. Conversely, in crisis markets limits fare poorly in nearly all aspects, particularly for lower limits. Practical implications – Ramifications of the paper’s findings are discussed through highlighting the asymmetric nature of price limits’ ex-post effects. The paper also contributes to regulatory debate surrounding the quest for an optimal price limit. Originality/value – The paper is the first of its kind in documenting long-horizon evidence of ex-post effects of a wide-band price limit. Moreover, the paper is unique in its approach in bifurcating circuit breaker performance along the line of market stability periods

Lead-lag relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum: evidence from hourly and daily data

This paper investigates lead-lag relationship between heavyweight cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traditional studies of information flow between markets preponderate on cash vs. futures, whereby researchers are interested in the stabilizing impact of futures on spot markets. While interest in the same relationship in the nascent cryptocurrency sphere is emerging, little is known regarding price leadership between these assets. In this paper, we employ a battery of statistical tests—VECM, Granger Causality, ARMA, ARDL and Wavelet Coherence—to identify price leadership between the two crypto heavyweights Bitcoin and Ethereum. Based on one year hourly and daily data from August 2017 through to September 2018, our tests yield varied results but largely suggest bi-directional causality between the two assets. Moreover, the results indicate that intraday crypto traders can barely exploit Bitcoin-Ethereum hourly or daily price discovery process to their advantage

Trading aggression when price limit hits are imminent: NARDL based intraday investigation of magnet effect

Utilizing an experimental Non-linear ARDL technique (NARDL), this paper tests an ex-ante hypothesized side-effect of financial market circuit breakers called the magnet effect. The hypothesis states that, in large price swing scenarios, circuit breakers (limits or halts), by their very existence, invite trading activities towards themselves in a way that the prophecy of the trigger is fulfilled. Most empirical works testing this effect hail from East Asian exchanges, which typically employ a tight price band. Our empirical venue, Bursa Malaysia, is a marked exception, sticking to a ±30% limit since 1989. Employing high-frequency (millisecond) proprietary intraday data from 2015 to 2017, we examine the magnet effect through order aggression and price velocity as the possibility of a limit draws closer. We find evidence of moderate magnet effect for most stocks, suggesting accelerated trading activities proportionate to likelihood of a limit-hit. The effect is more pronounced for lower limit stocks. Interestingly, several upper limit scenarios also exhibit the opposite of magnet effect: the repellent effect, suggesting investors recoil from trading when a limit-hit appears imminent. We discuss several regulatory, industry, and academic implications of our findings

A survey on the magnet effect of circuit breakers in financial markets

Proponents of circuit breakers justify the practice citing its utility in placating stressed markets, persuading agents to reflect on available information, and to trade rationally. Opponents counter by calling it an infringement on laissez-faire price discovery process citing the lack of conclusive evidence of their effectiveness in market crises. After nearly three decades of theoretical and empirical scrutiny, this discord persists. Most of the empirical focus in this domain revolves around ex-post performance of circuit breakers in cooling off the market, interference in trading, volatility splattering, and delayed assimilation of information. A less explored hypothesis is a potential for traders to hasten trading plans fearing illiquidity or trading blockade. Thus, the existence of the circuit breaker alone can induce its tripping. Known formally as the magnet effect, this hypothesis remains less explored due–inter alia–to paucity of data and methodological limitations. Greater availability of high-frequency datasets in recent times, however, has spurred a growth in empirical works focusing purely on the magnet effect hypothesis. As this nascent sub-discipline in market microstructure grows, this paper undertakes one of the first formal surveys looking to consolidate theoretical and empirical works on magnet effect. Moreover, we discuss methodological challenges and analytic limitations which strain the credibility of academic research findings in this domain; particularly among regulators

Circuit breakers as market stability levers: a survey of research, praxis, and challenges

Circuit breaker, an automated regulatory instrument employed to deter panic, temper volatility, and prevent crashes, is controversial in financial markets. Proponents claim it provides a propitious time out when price levels are stressed and persuades traders to make rational trading decisions. Opponents demur its potency, dubbing it a barrier to laissez‐faire price discovery process. Since conceptualization in 1970s and practice from 1980s, researchers focused mostly on its ability to allay panic, interference in trading, volatility transmission, prospect of self‐fulfilling prophecy through gravitational pull towards itself, and delayed dissemination of information. Though financial economists are forked on circuit breakers' usefulness, they are a clear favourite among regulators, who downplay the reliability of anti‐circuit breaker findings citing, inter alia, suspect methodology, and lack of statistical power. In the backdrop of 2007–2008 Crisis and 2010 Flash Crash, the drumbeats for more regulatory intervention in markets grew louder. Hence, it is unlikely that intervening mechanism such as circuit breakers will ebb. But are circuit breakers worth it? This paper synthesizes three decades of theoretical and empirical works, underlines the limitations, issues, and methodological shortcomings undermining findings, attempts to explain regulatory rationale, and provides direction for future research in an increasingly complex market climat

Back to the future: returning to silver-backed money in Sri Lanka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the drivers of the behaviour intention to use the Silver-Backed Mobile Payment System (SBMPS) among the residents of Kattankudy, Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach Based on technology adoption model theory, a conceptual framework was devised, which was later tested via structural equation modelling (SEM) using valid responses from a survey questionnaire. Findings The results indicated that perceived usefulness and subjective norms have positive relationships and perceived risk a negative relationship with people’s behavioural intention to adopt SBMPS. In addition, the respondents were primarily motivated by faith (Islam) and also by economic advantages to adopt SBMPS. Research limitations/implications Religion, culture, gender, income level, age and educational level could be used as moderating factors for better understanding of people’s behaviour intentions. A Multi-cultural demographic may shed further light. Social implications This paper not only makes awareness of the importance of real (commodity) money but also provides the understanding of people’s willingness and the underlying motivations to practically implement the system without threatening the legal tender. Originality/value Extant research has mainly focused on the validity and the conceptual ideas to return to gold and silver money. This paper has been an extension to practically implement real money without threatening the legal tender by investigating the determinants of people’s willingness to return to silver money and understanding their motivations underlying those decision

Selling short as Ijarāh with Istiḥsān and its ethical implication

For most scholars, the concept of selling short, where financial assets are sold without prior possession or ownership, transgresses Islamic principles. However, the Sharīʿah Advisory Council of the Securities Commission of Malaysia (SAC) went against the majority by permitting short selling in 2006. Conventional finance points out that short selling increases liquidity, facilitates price discovery, and enables informational efficiency. Muslim scholars are facing a dilemma: on the one hand, Sharīʿah principles dictate that Islamic capital market transactions and instruments should remain devoid of elements of ambiguity and prohibited characteristics, but on the other hand, the Sharīʿah also demands that the transactions be of social utility to the participating parties. It appears that the SAC allows regulated short selling on the basis of ijārah with istiḥsān. This article strives to highlight the jurisprudential issues regarding short selling and contribute to an Islamic angle on the ethical implications affecting this phenomenon

Revisiting fiat regime’s attainability of shari’ah objectives and possible futuristic alternatives

Maqasid of Shari'ah is a millennium old theory on the higher objectives of Islamic divine law. As the discipline of Islamic economics and finance grew in politico-economic importance in the past three decades, a cathartic trend has emerged among Muslim experts to realign economic and financial practices with not merely the minimum legal requirements of religion but also the wisdom and crucial objectives of Shari'ah. An expositive example of this is the monetary economics debate of a Shari'ah consonant currency. Though vast majority of religious clerics have approbated fiat and paper currencies in strict legal terms since the 1980s, a revisionist movement since the mid-1990s seeks to counter it—some going as far as indorsing reversion to gold and silver coinage of medieval Islamic epoch of affluence. Unlike orthodox fiqhi (strict jurisprudentialism) approach that involves legalese with little leeway, Maqasid approach concerns itself with the spirit of the law. This paper operates in the exciting laboratory of Maqasidic framework to appraise the multitudinous role of fiat currency in protecting economic, political, and social public interests, prevention of harm, promotion of egalitarianism, and attainment of ultimate utopic vision of theological and spiritual demands in Shari'ah. The paper contributes, theoretically, by introducing several moral-philosophical arguments against fiat’s compatibility with Shari'ah, and, practically, by prognosticating the future course of discourse in light of advancements in technological innovations—including nascent crypto-currencies

Aberrant investor participation amid substantial price swings: high-frequency evidence of magnet-repellent effect from Malaysia

Price limits have skirted controversy since inception. Regulators claim limits curb volatility, allay stressed markets, and encourage reflection on information to trade rationally. Opponents contend saying limits delay the inevitable by postponing volatility, deferring equilibrium price discovery, and obtrude investors’ trading plans. While these undesired effects are all ex-post in nature, some argue that limits – by very existence – threaten to invite trading activities towards themselves and govern trade-flow such that the limit’s prophecy is fulfilled. This is known as magnet effect. Theoretical development of this ex-ante effect has been in hibernation since the 1990s. Thus, empirical attempts have been made to test its existence – mostly in East-Asian exchanges with tight limits. Bursa Malaysia, however, defends its ±30% limit for ~30 years based on internal (unpublished) studies. This paper employs a battery of tests to examine the existence and magnitude of magnet effect and – its counterpart – repellent effect in Malaysia. Our findings suggest a weak form of magnet effect and comparable degrees of repellent effect. Moreover, we report price acceleration beyond a threshold point unsupported by order aggression or volume support necessary to constitute a magnet effect. We discuss policy import of our findings and recommend future research avenues worthy of pursuit. Price limits’ opponents argue that limits can threaten to invite trading activities towards themselves such that the limit’s prophecy is fulfilled. Existence of this phenomenon—the magnet effect—has been tested mostly in exchanges with tight limits. This paper employs a battery of tests to examine the existence and magnitude of magnet effect in Bursa Malaysia, which employs a wide price limit. Our findings suggest a weak form of magnet effect and comparable degrees of repellent effect. Moreover, we report price acceleration beyond a threshold point unsupported by order aggression or volume support necessary to constitute magnet effect

GDP vs genuine progress quantification of economic performance in South Korea and Malaysia

Malaysia and South Korea, successful graduates of Asian Financial Crisis, employed different paths to recovery via Capital Control and IMF bail-out respectively. This paper tracks recovery trajectories of the two nations via orthodox and emergent growth indicators: GDP and GPI. We report unemployment, open-trade, fixed capital accumulation, and prior crisis to be influential determinants of both metrics, while credit and foreign exchange rate lack significance