Electric cars: their carbon implications and adoption in South Africa

Climate change is a reality that is starting to have an impact on society through decreased agricultural production and increased extreme weather events, resulting to worldwide disasters. It is caused by human activities that release greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. One of the key areas of concern is the mobility sector which accounts for around 20% of the total energy use, with a GHG footprint of close to 14% of the global emissions. International organisations are concerned about the elevating GHG emissions resulting from the increasing internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to the recent wave in electrifying the vehicles which presents many of advantages as well as major constraints. This study used the quantitative research approach to investigate the possible benefits of electric vehicles to our environment in the future. The projections of vehicle population size were estimated using three cases, and the electric vehicle penetration into the market by 2030 was investigated with four different scenarios. Further research was done to investigate the possible barriers present in the South African market that impede the adoption of electric vehicles. The results showed that the projection of the business-as-usual case, coupled with mitigation scenarios, present a better option for mitigation. The worst case of exponential increases in vehicle population does not present any GHG emissions moderation hope for any of the mitigation scenarios used in the study. The other case shows high mitigation potential, but it leads to a case of economic decline where the numbers of vehicles are decreasing with time. The findings of the study on barriers to adoption of electric vehicles in the market highlighted the high purchase price, high battery price and high likelihood for owning a secondary vehicle based on the current circumstances, as the main barriers that the respondents in the Gauteng Province found to be unattractive. But generally the willingness to buy electric vehicles was high for the majority of the factors that were presented. With these perceived positive opinions by the respondents, it is down to government and private companies to provide an environment conducive to changed opinions conducive for the consumers. This relates to advancing the technology and providing policy support for the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles

Development and analysis of a long-term soil moisture data set in three different agroclimatic zones of South Africa

Understanding the potential impacts of climate variability/change on soil moisture is essential for the development of informed adaptation strategies. However, long-term in-situ soil moisture measurements are sparse in most countries. The objectives of this study were to develop and analyse the temporal variability of a long-term soil moisture data set in South Africa. In this study, a water balance model was used to reconstruct long-term soil moisture data sets from 1980 through 2018, in three sites that represent the diverse agroclimatic conditions of South Africa. Additionally, long-term changes and variability of soil moisture were examined to investigate the potential impacts of climate variability on soil moisture. The results of the Mann–Kendall test showed a non-significant decreasing trend of soil moisture for inland stations at a rate between -0.001 and -0.02 mm per annum. In contrast, a statistically significant (at 5% level of significance) increasing trend of soil moisture for a coastal station at a rate of 0.1131 mm per annum was observed. The findings suggest that the Bainsvlei and Bronkhorstspruit stations located in the inland region are gradually becoming drier as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing air temperature. In contrast, the Mandeni station located in the coastal region is becoming wetter as a result of increasing rainfall, despite the increase in air temperature. The findings indicate that climate variability is likely to change the soil moisture content, although the influence will vary with region and climatic conditions. Therefore, understanding the factors that affect soil moisture variability at the local scale is critical for the development of informed and effective adaptation strategies.Significance: Long-term modelled estimates were used to investigate the potential impacts of climate variability on soil moisture in three different agroclimatic conditions of South Africa. Results show that inland regions are gradually becoming drier as a result of decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing air temperatures while coastal regions are becoming wetter as a result of increasing trends of rainfall. This study indicates that climate variability is likely to change soil moisture, although various regions will be affected differently. The development of informed adaptation strategies at the local scale is critical to cope effectively with climate variability

Rainy season characteristics for the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa

Maize is a staple crop in South Africa and is mainly grown under rain-fed conditions. Rain-fed agricultural production is heavily reliant on rainfall during the planting season. Information on rainy season characteristics is of utmost importance as it guides farmers in preparing for the upcoming season. The study investigated rainy season characteristics for the Luvuvhu River Catchment with reference to rain-fed maize production. Historical daily rainfall data were obtained from 12 weather stations for the period 1923–2015. Instant+ statistical software was used to compute onset, false onset, cessation and length of the rainy season. The trends in rainy season characteristics were analysed using the Spearman rank correlation test. Onset of the rainy season can be expected from the first week of October to the third week of January, while cessation can be expected from the first week of February to the first week of May. The length of the rainy season ranged from 67 to 203 days. Seasonal rainfall ranged from 182 to 1 535 mm. Phafuri, Sigonde, Phunda Maria and Folovhodwe had a higher probability of false onset. No significant changes in rainy season characteristics at a 5% level of significance were observed. There was a strong correlation between onset and length of the rainy season. Based on rainfall patterns only, Phafuri, Sigonde and Folovhodwe might not be suitable for maize production under the current climate. The most favourable sites for maize production within the catchment are Entabeni, Levubu, Lwamondo, Thathe, Tshiombo and Vreemedeling. The findings of this study have implications on agricultural activities and food security as maize is a staple crop in the Luvuvhu River catchment area. Information on rainy season characteristics may therefore help in strengthening food security

Assessing the adoption of improved seeds as a coping strategy to climate variability under smallholder farming conditions in South Africa

This study was undertaken to examine the adoption rate, constraints and factors determining the uptake of improved seed varieties in smallholder farming conditions of South Africa, using a maize crop. Primary data were collected from 279 smallholder farmers in the Maluti-a-Phofung municipality of the Free State Province using a household questionnaire and were validated through focus group discussions with key local informants. Descriptive statistics, frequency analysis and a binary logistic model were used for data analysis. Results show that the majority of the farmers (>69%) were growing uncertified local seed varieties saved from their previous harvest or acquired from neighbouring farmers. The lack of awareness and knowledge of, inadequate information, unaffordability and unavailability of improved seeds, low income and landlessness were major constraints limiting the adoption rate. Age and income were the main variables that had a positive and significant effect on the adoption of improved seed varieties, whilst ownership of livestock had a significant and negative influence on their adoption. As a result, the promotion of improved seed varieties needs to be supported by conducive and effectual institutional policies that will improve the provision of extension services, capacity-building initiatives, subsidy programmes, financial resources and good agricultural lands, and reduce the transaction costs of improved seed varieties. The recommendations from this study can be used by the government and other developmental organisations to enhance the wider uptake and use of improved seed varieties in smallholder farming conditions not only in the study area but also in other regions with similar challenges. Significance: • A lack of awareness and knowledge of, inadequate information, unaffordability and unavailability of improved seeds, low income and landlessness are key constraints limiting adoption. • We recommend the provision of knowledge and awareness-raising of improved seed varieties through enhanced extension services and capacity-building initiatives as key strategies to improve the adoption rate. • The recommendations of this study can be used to enhance the wider uptake and use of improved seeds and assist smallholder farmers to cope effectively with climate variability and change

Spatiotemporal Variation of Frost within Growing Periods

Frost is one of the devastating agroclimatological hazards affecting crop production in the Free State Province of South Africa. In this study, frost (0°C threshold) probabilities within different growing periods starting from the first dekad of October to the third dekad of February for a 100-day, 120-day, and 140-day crop were determined. The data used in the investigation was daily minimum temperature obtained from 55 weather stations located in and around the Free State Province with data from 1950 to 2010. The results show high spatial and temporal variability of frost within the different growing periods. The western, central, northern, and northwestern parts of the province have the longest planting window for all the growing lengths from mid-October to mid-January. The eastern, northeastern, southern, and southeastern parts of Free State have the highest frost risk with shortened planting window mostly from the first dekad of November to the second dekad of December. Thus, careful consideration of frost incidences is important for successful crop production in this area

Evaluation of an inverse distance weighting method for patching daily and dekadal rainfall over the Free State Province, South Africa

Climate data recorded by national meteorological agencies is either incomplete or faulty for some periods due to a number of reasons. Multi-functional utilization of climate data in complete form necessitates the filling of these gaps. In this study an inverse distance weighting (IDW) method was used to estimate rainfall utilizing neighbouring station data in the Free State Province of South Africa. Six weather stations evenly distributed across the province, and with data for 1950 to 2008, were used to evaluate this patching IDW approach at daily and dekadal time steps. Coefficient of determination (r2), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (MBE) were the statistics used in the assessment. Firstly, the study conducted a sensitivity analysis of the IDW exponent (p) which showed that the best results are obtained when p is either 2 or 2.5. The estimated values at all six stations were highly correlated with the measured rainfall data with an overall r2 value exceeding 0.70 for both daily and dekadal estimates. MAE showed low miscalculations with values with an average of 1 mm per day and 4.4 mm per dekad. MBE was very low for both daily and dekadal evaluations but the disaggregated data showed underestimation of the IDW mostly for daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm. Thus, IDW methodology proved to be an acceptable approach for estimating both daily and dekadal rainfall in the Free State Province.Keywords: estimation, missing data, neighbouring station

Can Famine Be Averted? A Spatiotemporal Assessment of The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in The Luvuvhu River Catchment of South Africa

Climate change has proved to be a threat to food security the world over. Using temperature and precipitation data, this paper examines the differential effects climate change has on different land uses in the Luvuvhu river catchment in South Africa. The paper uses the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which were calculated from Landsat images, and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for a sample of years between 1980 and 2016 to assess how drought and flood frequency have affected the agricultural environment. The results indicate that the lowest SPI values were recorded in 1996/1997, 2001/2002 and 2014/2015, suggesting the occurrence of drought during these years, while the highest SPI values were recorded in 1997/1998, 2002/2003 and 2004/2005. The relationship between three-month SPI (SPI_3) and VCI was strongest in grassland, and subsistence farming areas with the correlation coefficients of 0.8166 (p = 0.0022) and −0.6172 (p = 0.0431), respectively, indicating that rainfall variability had a high negative impact on vegetation health in those land uses with shallow-rooted plants. The findings of this study are relevant to disaster management planning in South Africa, as well as development of farming response strategies for coping with climate hazards in the country.</jats:p

Mapping of Maize Growing Period over the Free State Province of South Africa: Heat Units Approach

Temperature is one of the important environmental parameters that determines the development of a crop from one stage to another. It is integral in the calculation of heat units. In this study, the thermal index concept is used to determine the length of the growing period of short season, medium season, and medium-late season maize crop varieties for different sowing dates (1st dekad of October to 1st dekad of January). The results show high spatiotemporal variation in the median growing period for all three maize varieties. The length of the growing period for the short, medium, and medium-late season varieties is relatively short during October to early December with values in some areas of less than 100, 120, and 120 days, respectively. The duration of the planting period increases exponentially in most places starting from the 2nd dekad of November to 2nd dekad of December, depending on the region and crop variety. Long growing periods are likely to align maize growing period with dates of high frost risk and water shortages. Thus, appropriate choice of sowing date taking into consideration the thermal time requirements of the cultivar is crucial for proper growth and development of the maize crop

Socio-Economic Barriers to Adoption of Electric Vehicles in South Africa: Case Study of the Gauteng Province

Electric vehicles (EVs) were introduced into the South African market in 2013, and their adoption rate has been very low. There are limited existing studies covering consumer perceptions towards EVs in Africa and, thus, this study investigated possible socio-economic barriers present in the South African automotive market that impede the adoption or consumer purchase intention of EVs. The survey was conducted in the Gauteng Province in South Africa using questionnaires comprised of Likert-type questions. The analysis was conducted using statistical methods comprising mainly of frequency tables and Chi-squared tests on contingency tables. The findings of the study on barriers to adoption of EVs in the market highlighted the high purchase price, high battery price, and high likelihood for owning a secondary vehicle based on the current circumstances as the main purchase intention barriers that the respondents in the Gauteng Province accentuated. However, generally the willingness to buy EVs was high for a majority of the factors that were presented. With these perceived positive opinions from respondents, it is down to government and private companies to provide a conducive environment for the consumers