Electric cars: their carbon implications and adoption in South Africa

Abstract

Climate change is a reality that is starting to have an impact on society through decreased agricultural production and increased extreme weather events, resulting to worldwide disasters. It is caused by human activities that release greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. One of the key areas of concern is the mobility sector which accounts for around 20% of the total energy use, with a GHG footprint of close to 14% of the global emissions. International organisations are concerned about the elevating GHG emissions resulting from the increasing internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to the recent wave in electrifying the vehicles which presents many of advantages as well as major constraints. This study used the quantitative research approach to investigate the possible benefits of electric vehicles to our environment in the future. The projections of vehicle population size were estimated using three cases, and the electric vehicle penetration into the market by 2030 was investigated with four different scenarios. Further research was done to investigate the possible barriers present in the South African market that impede the adoption of electric vehicles. The results showed that the projection of the business-as-usual case, coupled with mitigation scenarios, present a better option for mitigation. The worst case of exponential increases in vehicle population does not present any GHG emissions moderation hope for any of the mitigation scenarios used in the study. The other case shows high mitigation potential, but it leads to a case of economic decline where the numbers of vehicles are decreasing with time. The findings of the study on barriers to adoption of electric vehicles in the market highlighted the high purchase price, high battery price and high likelihood for owning a secondary vehicle based on the current circumstances, as the main barriers that the respondents in the Gauteng Province found to be unattractive. But generally the willingness to buy electric vehicles was high for the majority of the factors that were presented. With these perceived positive opinions by the respondents, it is down to government and private companies to provide an environment conducive to changed opinions conducive for the consumers. This relates to advancing the technology and providing policy support for the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles