Financial Contagion and the European Debt Crisis

Since the beginning of 2010, the Euro Area faces a severe sovereign debt crisis, now generally known as the Euro Crisis. While the Euro Crisis has its origin in Greece, problems have now spread to several other European countries as well. Dynamic conditional correlation models (DCC) are estimated in order to assess if contagious effects are identifiable during the Euro Crisis, or if the countries’ problems are instead due to fundamental problems in the affected economies. Our findings show that there is contagion within the Euro Area. Additionally, contagious effects generated by rating announcements are documented. These results are crucial when it comes to choosing the correct measure and timing of policy intervention.contagion, DCC, Euro Crisis

Structural heterogeneity, and endogeneity of elasticites on the balance-of-payments constrained growth model

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, especially in developing countries, changes in the real exchange rate affect both the structure of production and the income elasticities of the demand for imports and exports – and, as a result, the balance-of-payments constraint to growth in the fashion of Thirlwall’s Law. If the latter is weakened, then these countries are able to reach a higher long-term growth rate. Thus, following Dosi, Pavitt e Soete (1990), we show how a devaluation of the real exchange rate affects an economy’s productive heterogeneity, by reducing its real wages. In addition, we demonstrate that the elasticities are endogenous, based on the argument that maintaining an undervalued exchange rate encourages research and innovation. This is due to its positive impact on self-financing conditions and on the access to credit, making it possible to modernise and diversify the structure of production. In the long-term, this implies an expansion of the export capacity and a reduction of the dependence on imports. Furthermore, based on Kaldor and Mirrlees (1962), we present a model that formalises the endogeneity of the elasticities by making them dependent on the average age of the capital stock of the economy. Lastly, we show how the approach suggested in this article is an improvement on the Structural Economic Dynamics (SED) approach, by demonstrating how variations in the real exchange rate alter the sectoral composition of the economy. In the final considerations, we present a series of arguments supporting the hypothesis that elasticities are endogenous to the real exchange rate.Balance-of-Payments Constraints, Real Exchange Rate, Structural Heterogeneity.

Government bond market integration and the EMU: Correlation based evidence

In July 1990, the project of the European Monetary Union (EMU) started and finally led to the introduction of the Euro in January 1999. This paper analyses the development of the government bond market integration during the three stages of the EMU. Based on the results from dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models, the study shows that the integration process was highly advanced but not completed at any point in time and that the degree of integration differentiated between geographical and political regions. It is confirmed statistically that the first, the second and the third stage of the EMU each contributed as a whole to the integration process and that each beginning of a new stage triggered an own wave of government bond market integration progress. Finally, a comparison of government bond market integration with equity market integration is proposed in order to identify the particular reason for the bond market integration in Europe. The results demonstrate that the expectation of real harmonization of fundamental values as opposed to an expectation that countries of the Euro Area will be saved once there is financial distress drives the European government bond market integration

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval $(a,b)$ following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.Comment: 25 pages, 4 tables, 4 figure

Interdependence of Liquidity Problems in the Financial Sector

The paper analyses problems arising from the interdependence of liquidity provision in the financial system. Findings document, that liquidity shortage of minor financial players can translate into liquidity shortage for systemic relevant players, thereby putting the proper functioning of the overall financial system on the line. As contractual mechanisms to safeguard against this threat are absent in the wake of market frictions, prudent regulation and governmental provision of external liquidity is asked for in order to solve these problems

Uso do crédito agrícola do PRONAF como forma de fomento nas atividades produtivas na agricultura familiar do município de Campos Borges/RS

TCC(graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro Socioeconômico. Ciências Econômicas (EaD).Este trabalho de pesquisa foi realizado objetivando avaliar os resultados do Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar (PRONAF) nas propriedades da agricultura familiar do município de Campos Borges-RS tomando por base de estudo a atividade da bovinocultura leiteira. Esta pesquisa permitiu estudar in loco o alcance dos objetivos aos quais o PRONAF se propõe como política pública, contribuindo desta forma como subsídio de avaliação e planejamento desta política pelos gestores públicos. A metodologia utilizada para a realização deste trabalho foi uma pesquisa bibliográfica para conceituação e descrição atual quanto à Agricultura Familiar, a política creditícia do PRONAF (Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar) e da cadeia láctea no Brasil e no Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando-se de fontes de pesquisa oficiais, artigos, monografias e dissertações, e para identificar e avaliar os resultados da agricultura familiar com à utilização do crédito rural do PRONAF na atividade produtiva da bovinocultura leiteira e também o atendimento dos objetivos definidos para esta política creditícia, foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo com a aplicação de um questionário com uma amostragem de produtores da agricultura familiar do município que tem a bovinocultura leiteira como atividade produtiva geradora de renda. Os resultados obtidos através da aplicação de questionários com estes produtores mostra que na maioria delas esta atividade é a maior geradora de renda, sendo que em mais de 50% delas a renda gerada por esta atividade está numa faixa que varia entre os 40% á 80% da renda total da propriedade. Nessas propriedades o crédito rural do PRONAF é uma ferramenta utilizada para o desenvolvimento das atividades da bovinocultura e da produção de grãos, sendo que por 85% dos produtores ele é utilizado tanto para custeio como para investimento em infra-estrutura, máquinas e equipamentos. Muitos destes produtores já acessam este crédito há mais de dez anos. Essas propriedades empregam mão de obra essencialmente familiar em uma área média de 24,3 ha. A pesquisa apontou indicativos de que no período relativo ao uso do crédito rural do PRONAF por estas famílias houve aumento na área utilizada para produção, aumento da produção, em grande parte atribuído ao PRONAF, aumento da renda e ainda uma melhoria na qualidade de vida das famílias, sendo esses os grandes objetivos desta política pública

Financial contagion and the European debt crisis

Since the beginning of 2010, the Euro Area faces a severe sovereign debt crisis, now generally known as the Euro Crisis. While the Euro Crisis has its origin in Greece, problems have now spread to several other European countries as well. Dynamic conditional correlation models (DCC) are estimated in order to assess if contagious effects are identifiable during the Euro Crisis, or if the countries' problems are instead due to fundamental problems in the affected economies. Our findings show that there is contagion within the Euro Area. Additionally, contagious effects generated by rating announcements are documented. These results are crucial when it comes to choosing the correct measure and timing of policy intervention

Armonización de las competencias en el sistema padres-hijos-profesionales en las etapas tempranas del desarrollo (0-3)

Al evidenciar el papel que juega el niño desde el nacimiento en su construcción como ser social mediante un equipamiento de partida, se actualizó la visión que se tenía sobre el papel de sus cuidadores y de la interrelación entre ambos. Actualmente se acepta que los padres se construyen como tales en la rutina diaria de los cuidados orientados al bebé donde aprenden a captar, interpretar y responder a las señales de su hijo. Este proceso da lugar a una espiral de transacciones que acaba configurando un código relacional entre los diferentes actores. Sobre esta base, en los tres primeros años, se establecen los modelos de funcionamiento familiar y las características del vínculo afectivo. En este período significativo, al igual que en las demás etapas de la vida, las redes sociales influyen y regulan la dinámicade la comunicación familiar dentro de un contexto sistémico donde el reconocimiento de las competencias de la familia actúa como un modelo de aprendizaje, abre al diálogo y aumenta la credibilidad del profesional.En evidenciar el paper que juga el nen des del naixement en la seva construcció com a ésser social mitjançant un equipament de partida, es va actualitzar la visió que es tenia del paper de les persones que en tenien cura i de la interrelació entre aquestes persones i la criatura. Actualment s'accepta que els pares es fan com a tals en la rutina diària de la cura orientada al bebè, en què aprenen a captar, a interpretar i a respondre els senyals del seu fill. Aquest procés dóna lloc a una espiral de transaccions que acaba configurant un codi relacional entre els diferents actors. Sobre aquesta base, en els tres primers anys, s'estableixen els models de funcionament familiar i les característiques del vincle afectiu. En aquest període significatiu, igualment que en les altres etapes de la vida, les xarxes socials influeixen i regulen la dinàmica de la comunicació familiar dins d'un context sistèmic on el reconeixement de les competències de la família actua com un model d'aprenentatge, obre al diàleg i augmenta la credibilitat del professional.On revealing the role played by children from birth in their construction as social beings by means of an initial pairing, the view of the role of a child's carers and the interrelation between both is updated. It is currently accepted that parents are constructed as such in the daily routine of care of their baby in which they learn to capture, interpret and respond to the signals from their child. This process leads to a spiral of transactions that eventually configures a relational code between the different parties. On this basis, during the first 3 years, models for family functioning are established along with the characteristics of the affective link. In this significant period, just like in the other stages of life, social networks influence and regulate the dynamics of family communication within a systemic context in which the recognition of the family's competencies acts as a learning model, opens dialogue and increases professional credibility

Participatory plant breeding and the evolution of landraces: A case study in the organic farms of the Collserola Natural Park

Although consumers appreciate the genetic diversity among tomato landraces, traditional varieties have been displaced from commercial agriculture. Their cultivation through organic farming in natural parks can contribute to their resurgence. With this aim, we developed a participatory plant breeding (PPB) program in Collserola Natural Park (Barcelona, Spain) to promote the conservation of the Mando landrace and to obtain new varieties adapted to local organic farmsPostprint (published version

Determination of chemical properties in ‘calçot’ (Allium cepa L.) by near infrared spectroscopy and multivariate calibration

‘Calçots’, the immature floral stems of second-year onion resprouts, are an economically important traditional crop in Catalonia (Spain). Classical approaches to evaluating the chemical properties of ‘calçots’ are time consuming and expensive; near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) may be faster and cheaper. We used NIRS to develop partial least square (PLS) models to predict dry matter, soluble solid content, titratable acidity, and ash content in cooked ‘calçots’. To guarantee the robustness of the models, calibration samples were grown and analyzed in a first season (2014–15) and validation samples in a second season (2015–16). NIRS on puree spectra estimated dry matter and soluble solid content with excellent accuracy (R2pred¿=¿0.953, 0.985 and RPD¿=¿4.571, 8.068, respectively). However, good estimation of titratable acidity and ash content required using ground dried puree spectra (R2pred¿=¿0.852, 0.820 and RPD¿=¿2.590, 1.987, respectively). NIRS can be a helpful tool for ‘calçots’ breeding and quality control.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft