Clusters or networks of economies? A macroeconomy study through GDP fluctuation correlations

We follow up on the study of correlations between GDP's of rich countries. We analyze web-downloaded data on GDP that we use as individual wealth signatures of the country economical state. We calculate the yearly fluctuations of the GDP. We look for forward and backward correlations between such fluctuations. The system is represented by an evolving network, nodes being the GDP fluctuations (or countries) at different times. In order to extract structures from the network, we focus on filtering the time delayed correlations by removing the least correlated links. This percolation idea-based method reveals the emergence of connections, that are visualized by a branching representation. Note that the network is made of weighted and directed links when taking into account a delay time. Such a measure of collective habits does not fit the usual expectations defined by politicians or economists.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Introducing the q-Theil index

Starting from the idea of Tsallis on non-extensive statistical mechanics and the {\it q-entropy} notion, we recall the Theil index $Th$ and transform it into the $Th_q$ index. Both indices can be used to map onto themselves any time series in a non linear way. We develop an application of the $Th_q$ to the GDP evolution of 20 rich countries in the time interval [1950 - 2003] and search for a proof of globalization of their economies. First we calculate the distances between the "new" time series and to their mean, from which such data simple networks are constructed. We emphasize that it is useful to, and we do, take into account different time "parameters": (i) the moving average time window for the raw time series to calculate the $Th_q$ index; (ii) the moving average time window for calculating the time series distances; (iii) a correlation time lag. This allows us to deduce optimal conditions to measure the features of the network, i.e. the appearance in 1970 of a globalization process in the economy of such countries and the present beginning of deviations. The $q$ value hereby used is that which measures the overall data distribution and is equal to 1.8125.Comment: 8 pages 21 figures, presented on Next08 conferenc

Татары Великого Княжества Литовского в Соединенных Штатах Америки

At the end of the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th century, Tatars of the former Grand Duchy of Lithuania started migrating to new lands and countries including England, Argentina and America. They were looking for work and the USA became their preferred country. Many Tatars returned back to homeland, but most of them stayed in America and succeeded. Tatars from Ivje, Navahradak, Mir, Kleck, Tavsiuny, Milkuny, Śviańciany, Dokšycy, Uzda, Śmiłavičy, Minsk, Vilnia and other settlements of Russian Empire before the World War I founded their registered society in New York in 1907. It was the first Muslim organization in the USA. They also founded the Muslim mizars in the Maple Grove and Cedar Grove cemeteries in New York. They started teaching children and bought a building for mosque in 1930. Tatars provided the annual dances and picnics, organized the funding (dues, fees, fines, loans, donations) for payment of expenses, helped the Society members (death and illness benefits) and Muslims in other countries including the former homeland (Ivje in 1922, Niekrašuncy, Warszawa in 1945 and etc.). They published a newspaper, the prayer books. They took part in the main historical events in the USA: the World War I, the World War II, Korean and Vietnam wars, post-war occupation of Germany, etc. Unfortunately, the Society had been developed until 1960s (member quantity was more than 300) and now it is in decline due to assimilation and migration. This article is devoted to the Tatar society of the USA. It is based on the results of study of family collections, oral stories, archival documents (Ellis Island cases, certificates of birth, death, marriage, draft) and pictures. The organization structure, the names of the famous Tatars and the Society board members (presidents, vice-presidents, secretaries, treasurers, imams, teachers, bank account holders, funeral committee members, etc.), the information about two cemeteries are re- vealed and provided.В настоящей статье раскрыты неизвестные страницы истории религиозной организации татар с территории бывшего Великого княжества Литовского, волею судьбы оказавшихся на Американском континенте в конце XIX – начале XX вв. Организация появилась в 1907 г. в Нью-Йорке, тогда же был заложен и первый мизар. В 1930 г. приобретено здание для мечети, выбраны имам, муэдзин и годжий; налажено самофинансирование организации, взаимодействие с органами власти, учреждениями и другими религиозными обществами Америки и мира. Однако по прошествии 6-и десятилетий ввиду нарастающих процессов ассимиляции и урбанизации, а также отсутствия притока новых татар-иммигрантов организация постепенно стала приходить в упадок. При написании статьи были исследованы документы из архива организации, в том числе протоколы заседаний, переписка и т. п., семейные документы из частных коллекций, а также проведен устный опрос ныне живущих татар, изучены метрические данные и анкеты пассажиров пароходов.&nbsp

Inertial effects in television viewing.

Visual attention of 300 three- and five-year-old children viewing 15 hour-long Sesame Street programs in the presence of an audiovisual slide distractor was examined to establish the existence and nature of attentional inertia, defined as the increased tendency to continue looking at TV the longer one has been viewing. Three major analytic approaches were employed: 1) plotting the conditional probability function, p ( look . /look. ) , where t = look length; 2) seeking inertial effects between looks and between pauses by examining the relationship between adjacent look and pause lengths; and 3) seeking inertial effects across episodes by examining the relationship between look and pause lengths before and after bit and slide boundaries. Using TV attention data, slide attention data, and pauses in attention both to the TV and slides, a sufficient body of evidence was accumulated to conclude that attentional inertia does exist. With regard to the nature of attentional inertia, the consistent carry-over effects across bit and slide boundaries demonstrated that attentional inertia is not strictly episode-bound . All results revealed inert ial effects that were episode-free in nature. However, no results were obtained that eliminated the possibility that both episode-bound and episode-free inertia may be functioning simultaneously in visual attention. No age effects were found, and curvilinear functions were consistently obtained, suggesting that inertial effects do not continue indefinitely but eventually reach and maintain a plateau . The significance of the attentional inertia phenomenon to TV viewing and to behavior in general was discussed

Cluster structure of EU-15 countries derived from the correlation matrix analysis of macroeconomic index fluctuations

The statistical distances between countries, calculated for various moving average time windows, are mapped into the ultrametric subdominant space as in classical Minimal Spanning Tree methods. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP) algorithm allows a decoupling of fluctuations with respect to the mass center of the system from the movement of the mass center itself. A Hamiltonian representation given by a factor graph is used and plays the role of cost function. The present analysis pertains to 11 macroeconomic (ME) indicators, namely the GDP (x1), Final Consumption Expenditure (x2), Gross Capital Formation (x3), Net Exports (x4), Consumer Price Index (y1), Rates of Interest of the Central Banks (y2), Labour Force (z1), Unemployment (z2), GDP/hour worked (z3), GDP/capita (w1) and Gini coefficient (w2). The target group of countries is composed of 15 EU countries, data taken between 1995 and 2004. By two different methods (the Bipartite Factor Graph Analysis and the Correlation Matrix Eigensystem Analysis) it is found that the strongly correlated countries with respect to the macroeconomic indicators fluctuations can be partitioned into stable clusters

Entropy correlation distance method applied to study correlations between the Gross Domestic Product of rich countries

The Theil index is much used in economy and finance; it looks like the Shannon entropy, but pertains to event values rather than to their probabilities. Any time series can be remapped through the Theil index. Correlation coefficients can be evaluated between the new time series, thereby allowing to study their mutual statistical distance, - to be contrasted to the usual correlation distance measure for the primary time series. As an example this entropy-like correlation distance method (ECDM) is applied to the Gross Domestic Product of 20 rich countries in order to test some economy globalization process. Hierarchical distances allow to construct (i) a linear network, (ii) a Locally Minimal Spanning Tree. The role of time averaging in finite size windows is illustrated and discussed. It is also shown that the mean distance between the most developed countries, was decreasing since 1960 till 2000, - which we consider to be a proof of globalization of the economy for these countries.Comment: Presented at Medyfinol 200