SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for big-picture understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan\u27s eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system\u27s problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake\u27s recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan\u27s TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement

Impact of Coastal Erosion and Sedimentation along the Northern Coast of Sinai Peninsula

Coastal engineering activities during the past five decades have resulted in considerable shoreline change along the northern coast of Sinai Peninsula. In the west of El Arish Power Plant, sediment accretion has reached the tip of the breakwater of the cooling water intake basin necessitating extensive dredging inside the basin. In the east of El Arish Harbor, the shoreline is continuously retreating. Previous activities to mitigate the erosion have not succeeded. For example, the groin field in the east of the El Arish Harbor has transferred the problem to the neighboring beaches farther downcoast. In this study predominant coastal processes affecting the erosion of the Sinai northern coastline were investigated. Wave-induced longshore currents were found to be responsible for transporting the littoral drift along the coastline. Longshore sediment transport, from Port Said to Ashqelon, was quantified and the general patterns of erosion-accretion were determined by looking upon the gradients between transport rates along the coast. Particular emphasis was placed on shoreline change due to perturbations introduced by infrastructure sited at the coastline near El Arish. The shoreline change at El Arish Power Plant and Harbor were modeled using the coastal evolution model GENESIS. Having understood the coastal processes driving the shoreline change at these two locations, appropriate remedial measures were proposed to mitigate the problem. In this regard, a combination of hard and soft coastal engineering methods are presented to alleviate the dredging problem at the power plant while sand-bypassing/beach-nourishment is suggested as an effective sustainable solution to the erosion problem in the east of El Arish Harbor

Value of Water - Economic and Full Value - Michigan Tech University

Lecture module on Economic and Full Value of water developed by Michigan Tech University (slides). Lecture draws on two readings: Brett Walton. (2010). The Price of Water: A Comparison of Water Rates, Usage in 30 U.S. Cities. April 26. Circle of Blue WaterNews. Available at: https://www.circleofblue.org/2010/world/the-price-of-water-a-comparison-of-water-rates-usage-in-30-u-s-cities/. Peter Rogers, Radhika de Silva, Ramesh Bhatia. (2002) Water is an economic good: How to use prices to promote equity, efficiency, and sustainability, Water Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(02)00004-1. Find a companion Jeopardy game -- test your knowledge about the readings, prices, economic values, full values, and more -- under the Games heading

Jeopardy - Water price, ecnomic cost, economic value

It\u27s Jeopardy! Test your knowledge of water prices, water cost, it\u27s economic value, full value, and more. Information developed from a companion lecture and two readings: Brett Walton. (2010). The Price of Water: A Comparison of Water Rates, Usage in 30 U.S. Cities. April 26. Circle of Blue WaterNews. Available at: https://www.circleofblue.org/2010/world/the-price-of-water-a-comparison-of-water-rates-usage-in-30-u-s-cities/. Peter Rogers, Radhika de Silva, Ramesh Bhatia. (2002) Water is an economic good: How to use prices to promote equity, efficiency, and sustainability, Water Policy, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(02)00004-1. How many Jeopardy points can you earn

Avoiding Water Bankruptcy in the Drought-Troubled Southwest: What the US and Iran Can Learn from Each Other

The 2021 water year ends on Sept. 30, and it was another hot, dry year in the western U.S., with almost the entire region in drought. Reservoirs vital for farms, communities and hydropower have fallen to dangerous lows. The biggest blow came in August, when the U.S. government issued its first ever water shortage declaration for the Colorado River, triggering water use restrictions. In response, farmers and cities across the Southwest are now finding new, often unsustainable ways to meet their future water needs. Las Vegas opened a lower-elevation tunnel to Lake Mead, a Colorado River reservoir where water levels reached unprecedented lows at 35% of capacity. Farmers are ratcheting up groundwater pumping. Officials in Arizona, which will lose nearly one-fifth of its river water allotment under the new restrictions, even floated the idea of piping water hundreds of miles from the Mississippi River

World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world\u27s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining stability and balance of the world\u27s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC\u27s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time

Ecological-economic assessment of the effects of freshwater flow in the Florida Everglades on recreational fisheries

This research develops an integrated methodology to determine the economic value to anglers of recreational fishery ecosystem services in Everglades National Park that could result from different water management scenarios. The study first used bio-hydrological models to link managed freshwater inflows to indicators of fishery productivity and ecosystem health, then link those models to anglers\u27 willingness-to-pay for various attributes of the recreational fishing experience and monthly fishing effort. This approach allowed us to estimate the foregone economic benefits of failing to meet monthly freshwater delivery targets. The study found that the managed freshwater delivery to the Park had declined substantially over the years and had fallen short of management targets. This shortage in the flow resulted in the decline of biological productivity of recreational fisheries in downstream coastal areas. This decline had in turn contributed to reductions in the overall economic value of recreational ecosystem services enjoyed by anglers. The study estimated the annual value of lost recreational services at $68.81million. The losses were greater in the months of dry season when the water shortage was higher and the number of anglers fishing also was higher than the levels in wet season. The study also developed conservative estimates of implicit price of water for recreation, which ranged from$11.88 per AF in November to $112.11 per AF in April. The annual average price was$41.54 per AF. Linking anglers\u27 recreational preference directly to a decision variable such as water delivery is a powerful and effective way to make management decision

Addressing drainage issues in the urban landscape

The Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service periodically issues revisions to its publications. The most current edition is made available. For access to an earlier edition, if available for this title, please contact the Oklahoma State University Library Archives by email at [email protected] or by phone at 405-744-6311

Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts

The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world\u27s largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia\u27s contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin\u27s water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998–2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin\u27s hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr−1) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr−1 during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr−1. Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia

Causal Loop Development Activity

Students will work in groups to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) to illustrate the structure and expected behavior of the fictional water short state of Nevizonato facilitate qualitative discussion of expected outcomes of a proposed water management strategy. This activity requires familiarity with systems thinking and system dynamics modeling. CLDs are introduced as a fundamental systems thinking tool for conceptual modeling