Directing store flyers to the appropriate audience

Grocery shoppers were questioned about the frequency of purchasing items that were featured in the store's flyers. This measure was used as the dependent variable in a multinomial logit model with the independent variables being various aspects of shopping behaviour, usage of store flyers, age and employment status. Since only one threshold parameter was significant, the four-level dependent variable was then collapsed and a binary model was estimated. This study evidenced that less than half of the respondents looked forward to receiving unsolicited flyers. Most shoppers read the flyers only to be informed of price specials that the store has to offer. The odds ratio of responding to store flyer deals among those who look forward to sales flyers is more than double the odds ratio of those who do not await the flyers, across every category of shopping frequency. Retailers could employ direct marketing to target specific audiences who look forward to receiving store flyers.\u

Ironing out the details: Untangling dietary iron and genetic background in diabetes

The search for genetic risk factors in type-II diabetes has been hindered by a failure to consider dietary variables. Dietary nutrients impact metabolic disease risk and severity and are essential to maintaining metabolic health. Genetic variation between individuals confers differences in metabolism, which directly impacts response to diet. Most studies attempting to identify genetic risk factors in disease fail to incorporate dietary components, and thus are ill-equipped to capture the breadth of the genome’s impact on metabolism. Understanding how genetic background interacts with nutrients holds the key to predicting and preventing metabolic diseases through the implementation of personalized nutrition. Dysregulation of iron homeostasis is associated with type-II diabetes, but the link between dietary iron and metabolic dysfunction is poorly defined. High iron burden in adipose tissue induces insulin resistance, but the mechanisms underlying adipose iron accumulation remain unknown. Hepcidin controls dietary iron absorption and distribution in metabolic tissues, but it is unknown whether genetic variation influencing hepcidin expression modifies susceptibility to dietary iron-induced insulin resistance. This review highlights discoveries concerning the axis of iron homeostasis and adipose function and suggests that genetic variation underlying dietary iron metabolism is an understudied component of metabolic disease

Tail Dependence among Agricultural Insurance Indices: The Case of Iowa County-Level Rainfalls

Index insurance has been promoted as a cost-effective risk management alternative for agricultural producers in developing countries. In this paper, we ask whether spatially separated weather variables commonly used in index insurance design, such as rainfall at different weather stations within a defined geographical area, are more highly correlated at the tails. As a case study, we assess the degree of tail dependence exhibited by Iowa June county-level rainfalls using copulas. We search among various candidate bivariate copulas and, using goodness-of-fit for copulas, attempt to identify the copula structures that best explain the nature of dependence among rainfalls in adjacent counties. Our results provide strong evidence that lower tail dependence exists in most of adjacent county-level rainfalls in Iowa. The results also suggest that patterns of tail dependence differ across counties.tail dependence, copulas, index insurance, weather indices, Risk and Uncertainty,

THE IMPACT OF POLLUTION CONTROLS ON LIVESTOCK-CROP PRODUCERS

A discrete-time, continuous-space model of a livestock- crop producer is used to examine the long-run effects of phosphorus runoff controls on optimal livestock production and manure application practices. Quantity restrictions and taxes on phosphorus application are shown to reduce livestock supply and impose greater costs on livestock-crop producers than on crop-only producers. Restrictions on manure application, without accompanying restrictions on commercial fertilizer application, will have only a limited effect on phosphorus runoff levels.Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,

Catastrophic Drought Insurance based on the Remotely Sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Smallholder Farmers in Zimbabwe

Index insurance, which indemnifies agricultural producers based on an objectively observable variable that is highly correlated with production losses but which cannot be influenced by the producer, can provide adequate protection against catastrophic droughts without suffering from the moral hazard and adverse selection problems that typically cause conventional agricultural insurance programs to fail. Using historical maize and cotton yield data from nine districts in Zimbabwe, we find that catastrophic drought insurance contracts based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be constructed whose indemnities exhibit higher correlations with yield losses compared to the conventional rainfall index. In addition the NDVI contracts can be offered within the 5–10 per cent premium range considered reasonably affordable to many poor smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

RAINFALL INSURANCE FOR MIDWEST CROP PRODUCTION

The paper discusses a methodology for design and pricing of index insurance contracts for crop production. The methodology heavily relies on establishing a relationship between the index and yields in order to evaluate the contract performance in hedging farmers' risk. However, analysis of yield/rainfall data series for Iowa corn and Kansas wheat fail to produce a reliable and meaningful relationship which can be used uniformly across several counties and/or crop producing districts. Further research is needed as to applicability of rainfall insurance to specific crop/region combinations.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Effects of Insurance on Farmer Crop Abandonment

Empirical evidence for the existence of moral hazard in the U.S. crop insurance program has been inconclusive. Here, we seek empirical evidence of moral hazard in the U.S. crop insurance program, departing from the established empirical literature in two significant respects. First, we attempt to uncover evidence of moral hazard by examining the effects of crop insurance on post-planting crop abandonment decisions. Second, we expand to the scope of existing empirical studies by including regions and crops that have historically experienced high loss ratios under the Federal crop insurance program. Our results provide strong evidence that insurance participation encourages producers to abandon their crops during the growing season for corn in Central Plains and Southern Plains regions and for upland cotton in Southeast, Delta States and Southern Plains regions.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

SELF-INSURANCE AND THE UTILITY OF STANDARD RISK MANAGEMENT CONTRACTS

This paper analyzes the potential trade offs and complementarities that exist between intra-year strategies employing annual price and yield risk contracts and inter-year self-insurance strategies involving intertemporal consumption substitution and borrowing, and examines whether standard crop insurance contracts can be made more useful to farmers if offered with a multiple-year horizon.Risk and Uncertainty,

MODELING MULTIVARIATE CROP YIELD DENSITIES WITH FREQUENT EXTREME EVENTS

Measuring the lower tail of a crop yield distribution is important for managing agricultural production risk and rating crop insurance. Common parametric techniques encounter difficulties when attempting to model extreme yield events. We evaluate and compare alternative models based on our candidate distributions for high risk counties.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Characteristics of 5-year-olds who catch-up with MMR: findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Objectives To examine predictors of partial and full measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination catch-up between 3 and 5 years. Design Secondary data analysis of the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Setting Children born in the UK, 2000–2002. Participants 751 MCS children who were unimmunised against MMR at age 3, with immunisation information at age 5. Main outcome measures Catch-up status: unimmunised (received no MMR), partial catch-up (received one MMR) or full catch-up (received two MMRs). Results At age 5, 60.3% (n=440) children remained unvaccinated, 16.1% (n=127) had partially and 23.6% (n=184) had fully caught-up. Children from families who did not speak English at home were five times as likely to partially catch-up than children living in homes where only English was spoken (risk ratio 4.68 (95% CI 3.63 to 6.03)). Full catch-up was also significantly more likely in those did not speak English at home (adjusted risk ratio 1.90 (1.08 to 3.32)). In addition, those from Pakistan/Bangladesh (2.40 (1.38 to 4.18)) or ‘other’ ethnicities (such as Chinese) (1.88 (1.08 to 3.29)) were more likely to fully catch-up than White British. Those living in socially rented (1.86 (1.34 to 2.56)) or ‘Other’ (2.52 (1.23 to 5.18)) accommodations were more likely to fully catch-up than home owners, and families were more likely to catch-up if they lived outside London (1.95 (1.32 to 2.89)). Full catch-up was less likely if parents reported medical reasons (0.43 (0.25 to 0.74)), a conscious decision (0.33 (0.23 to 0.48)), or ‘other’ reasons (0.46 (0.29 to 0.73)) for not immunising at age 3 (compared with ‘practical’ reasons). Conclusions Parents who partially or fully catch-up with MMR experience practical barriers and tend to come from disadvantaged or ethnic minority groups. Families who continue to reject MMR tend to have more advantaged backgrounds and make a conscious decision to not immunise early on. Health professionals should consider these findings in light of the characteristics of their local populations