Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework

The global rise of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its potentially devastating consequences require a comprehensive regulatory framework for reducing emissions, including those from the transport sector. Alternative fuels and technologies have been promoted as means for reducing the carbon intensity of the transport sector. However, the overall transport policy framework in major world economies is geared towards the use of conventional fossil fuels. This paper evaluates the effectiveness and efficiency of current climate policies for road transport that (1) target fuel producers and/or car manufacturers, and (2) influence use of alternative fuels and technologies. With diversifying fuel supply chains, carbon intensity of fuels and energy efficiency of vehicles cannot be regulated by a single instrument. We demonstrate that vehicles are best regulated across all fuels in terms of energy per distance. We conclude that price-based policies and a cap on total emissions are essential for alleviating rebound effects and perverse incentives of fuel efficiency standards and low carbon fuel standards. In tandem with existing policy tools, cap and price signal policies incentivize all emissions reduction options. Design and effects of cap and trade in the transport sector are investigated in the companion article (Flachsland et al., 2010).Fuel efficiency standards, low carbon fuel standards, climate change

CITIES: Car Industry, Road Transport and an International Emission Trading Scheme – Policy Options

This report evaluates existing regulations for climate change mitigation in the transport sector and investigates the effects of including transportation in emission trading schemes.

Truncation Error Estimates in Process Life Cycle Assessment Using Input‐Output Analysis

Process life cycle assessment (PLCA) is widely used to quantify environmental flows associated with the manufacturing of products and other processes. As PLCA always depends on defining a system boundary, its application involves truncation errors. Different methods of estimating truncation errors are proposed in the literature; most of these are based on artificially constructed system complete counterfactuals. In this article, we review the literature on truncation errors and their estimates and systematically explore factors that influence truncation error estimates. We classify estimation approaches, together with underlying factors influencing estimation results according to where in the estimation procedure they occur. By contrasting different PLCA truncation/error modeling frameworks using the same underlying input‐output (I‐O) data set and varying cut‐off criteria, we show that modeling choices can significantly influence estimates for PLCA truncation errors. In addition, we find that differences in I‐O and process inventory databases, such as missing service sector activities, can significantly affect estimates of PLCA truncation errors. Our results expose the challenges related to explicit statements on the magnitude of PLCA truncation errors. They also indicate that increasing the strictness of cut‐off criteria in PLCA has only limited influence on the resulting truncation errors. We conclude that applying an additional I‐O life cycle assessment or a path exchange hybrid life cycle assessment to identify where significant contributions are located in upstream layers could significantly reduce PLCA truncation errors.EC/FP7/603864/EU/High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes/HELIXDFG, SFB 1026, Sustainable Manufacturing - Globale Wertschöpfung nachhaltig gestalte

Data Frameworks in Monetary, Physical and Time Units for Quantitative Sustainable Consumption Research

The overriding aim of this thesis is to establish how integrated input-output data frameworks in monetary, physical and time units can contribute to a be~ter understanding of the environmental pressures generated by a given final demand including the underlying economic, social and demographic driving forces. The thesis mainly focuses on environmental' input-output analysis and related methods and evaluates the· opportunities provided by recent data developments at the Federal Statistical Office. In particular, physical input-output tables and social accounting extensions published as part . of the 'socio-economic reporting system' are used for improving the specification and conceptualisation of production technology and lifestyles. The first part of the thesis contributes to the recent discussion on monetary and . physical input-output analysis. In particular, it looks at how· the representation of production technology can be improved through the availability of information from physical input~output tables (PlOT) to allow for a more robust allocation of environmental pressures to final consumption/demand. The conceptual discussion ,- highlights a whole range of misperceptions in the debate associated with the' construction of the German PlOT and highlights the shared conceptual basis between monetary inputoutput tables (MIOT) and PlOTs to the extent to which product flows are concerned. However, a detailed empirical comparison of production structures iIi monetary and physical units using the graph theoretical toolkit provided by qualitative input-output . analysis ~ighlights fundamental differences in their representation of technologies due to the particular scope of monetary and physical measurement: 45% of all intermediate product flows in MIOT and PlOT are fundamentally different in that they have a positive record in one table and a zero record in the other. As expected, most of these are 'weightless' immaterial service flows. However, the thesis highlights that such fundamental differences in the production structures associated with intermediate service flows are not only relevant in tertiary sectors, but are prominent throughout the economy: in fact, for some manufacturing sectors of capital goods with a high service component immaterial service flows can make up to 90% of all intermediate' outputs, highlighting the importance of an endogenisation of capital investment for an adequate attribution of environmental pressures to final demands. Remaining differences are explained by unpriced, material flows in environmental service sectors (recycling, waste treatment), where PlOTs provide a more comprehensive coverage. The first part of this thesis concludes by highlighting that production technology in environmental input-output models will usmilly be most appropriately specified in hybrid units. An outline of some of the main avenues for future research is provided. The second part of the thesis uses detailed SAM-type extensions to better understand the environmental pressures associated with lifestyles in their socio-. demographic context. Initially, an expenditure based lifestyle definition is deployed. to. analyse the social and demographic driving forces behind changes in GHG emissions associated with consumption patterns of 45 lifestyle groups in Germany between 1990 and 2002. A structural decomposition analysis confirms previous studies in that most technologically induced reductions in GHG emissions have been 'eaten-up' by additional emissiotls from growth in final consumption. However, results highlight that important· demographic trends are at work at the same time counteracting GHG emission savings. These pressures need to be considered in climate change policy formation, if climate change targets are to be delivered, Results from the environmental input-output model are further analysed using a panel regression approach in order to highlight the influence of individual social, economic and demographic detetminants of GHG emissions. The time-specific effects capture the slowing progress in GHG emission reductions after the re-unification in Germany. Group specific effects highlight the dominance of household size and the be10ngingness to a particular social group for differences in GHG emissions from consUmption patterns of different lifestyle groups. The analysis is concluded by highlighting the importance of adding social and . demographic information into standard environmental input-output frameworks to better understand global environmen~al pressures generated by the consumption patterns of different lifestyle groups. However, the top-down classification of lifestyles as commonly applied in national accounting based on only a few socio-demographic descriptors such as income, occupancy and household size is seen to limit the analysis. Of at least equal importance with people's social and demographic characteristics are the local conditions within which they are acting: general neighbourhood characteristics, the accessibility of private and public services and building properties (size, type, age, insulation etc.). Geodemographic lifestyle classifications, as commonly applied by marketing practitioners, are proposed as a spatially-specific alternative raising hopes to overcome the 'one size fits all'-type policy recommendations which are commonly derived from environmental input-output models. Finally, the commonly applied expenditure based lifestyle definition is fundamentally challenged. It is argued that a lifestyle definition should be based on what' people do rather than on what they spend. Following the economic household production function literature, this activity focus in the empirical description of lifestyles can be achieved through the introduction of time-use ~ata. The usefulness of the approach is. 'demonstrated in an empirical example using data from the input-output tables in time units provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Gennany. In the Appendix of this thesis, an initial analysis of the social' and economic determinants of CO2 emissions based on geo-demographic lifestyle data is provided. Furthennore, different ways of dealing with environmental pressures from imported products based on single region and multi-regional input-output models are discussed and a methodology for estimating Ecological Footprints based on input-output analysis is proposed

Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A Meta-Analysis

Understanding the distributional impacts of market-based climate policies is crucial to design economically efficient climate change mitigation policies that are socially acceptable and avoid adverse impacts on the poor. Empirical studies that examine the distributional impacts of carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidy reforms in different countries arrive at ambiguous results. To systematically determine the sources of variation between these outcomes, we apply an ordered probit meta-analysis framework. Based on a comprehensive, systematic and transparent screening of the literature, our sample comprises 53 empirical studies containing 183 effects in 39 countries. Results indicate a significantly increased likelihood of progressive distributional outcomes for studies on lower income countries and transport sector policies. The same applies to study designs that consider indirect effects, demand-side adjustments of consumers or lifetime income proxies

From Targets to Action : Rolling up our Sleeves after Paris

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 ambitious targets for responding to the threat of climate change have been set: limiting global temperature increase to “well below 2 °C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”. However, calculating the CO2 budget for 1.5 °C, it becomes clear that there is nearly no room left for future emissions. Scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies will play an even more important role for 1.5 °C than they already play for 2 °C. Especially against this background the feasibility of the target(s) is hotly debated, but this debate does not initiate the next steps that are urgently needed. Already the negotiations have featured the move from targets to implementation which is needed in the coming decade. Most importantly, there is an urgent need to develop and implement instruments that incentivize the rapid decarbonization. Moreover, it needs to be worked out how to link the climate and development agenda and prevent a buildup of coal power causing lock-in effects. Short term entry points into climate policy should now be in the focus instead of the fruitless debate on the feasibility of targets

The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems

While a rapid decommissioning of fossil fuel technologies deserves priority, most climate stabilization scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies (NETs) are required to keep global warming well below 2 °C. Yet, current discussions on NETs are lacking a distinct energy perspective. Prominent NETs, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), will integrate differently into the future energy system, requiring a concerted research effort to determine adequate means of deployment. In this perspective, we discuss the importance of energy per carbon metrics, factors of future cost development, and the dynamic response of NETs in intermittent energy systems. The energy implications of NETs deployed at scale are massive, and NETs may conceivably impact future energy systems substantially. DACCS outperform BECCS in terms of primary energy required per ton of carbon sequestered. For different assumptions, DACCS displays a sequestration efficiency of 75–100%, whereas BECCS displays a sequestration efficiency of 50–90% or less if indirect land use change is included. Carbon dioxide removal costs of DACCS are considerably higher than BECCS, but if DACCS modularity and granularity helps to foster technological learning to <100$ per tCO2, DACCS may remove CO2 at gigaton scale. DACCS also requires two magnitudes less land than BECCS. Designing NET systems that match intermittent renewable energies will be key for stringent climate change mitigation. Our results contribute to an emerging understanding of NETs that is notably different to that derived from scenario modelling

The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems

While a rapid decommissioning of fossil fuel technologies deserves priority, most climate stabilization scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies (NETs) are required to keep global warming well below 2 °C. Yet, current discussions on NETs are lacking a distinct energy perspective. Prominent NETs, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), will integrate differently into the future energy system, requiring a concerted research effort to determine adequate means of deployment. In this perspective, we discuss the importance of energy per carbon metrics, factors of future cost development, and the dynamic response of NETs in intermittent energy systems. The energy implications of NETs deployed at scale are massive, and NETs may conceivably impact future energy systems substantially. DACCS outperform BECCS in terms of primary energy required per ton of carbon sequestered. For different assumptions, DACCS displays a sequestration efficiency of 75–100%, whereas BECCS displays a sequestration efficiency of 50–90% or less if indirect land use change is included. Carbon dioxide removal costs of DACCS are considerably higher than BECCS, but if DACCS modularity and granularity helps to foster technological learning to <100$ per tCO2, DACCS may remove CO2 at gigaton scale. DACCS also requires two magnitudes less land than BECCS. Designing NET systems that match intermittent renewable energies will be key for stringent climate change mitigation. Our results contribute to an emerging understanding of NETs that is notably different to that derived from scenario modelling.TU Berlin, Open-Access-Mittel - 201

Climate change mitigation in cities: a systematic scoping of case studies

A growing number of researchers and stakeholders have started to address climate change from the bottom up: by devising scientific models, climate plans, low-carbon strategies and development policies with climate co-benefits. Little is known about the comparative characteristics of these interventions, including their relative efficacy, potentials and emissions reductions. A more systematic understanding is required to delineate the urban mitigation space and inform decision-making. Here, we utilize bibliometric methods and machine learning to meta-analyze 5635 urban case studies of climate change mitigation. We identify 867 studies that explicitly consider technological or policy instruments, and categorize these studies according to policy type, sector, abatement potential, and socio-technological composition to obtain a first heuristic of what is their pattern. Overall, we find 41 different urban solutions with an average GHG abatement potential ranging from 5.2% to 105%, most of them clustering in the building and transport sectors. More than three-fourth of the solutions are on demand side. Less than 10% of all studies were ex-post policy evaluations. Our results demonstrate that technology-oriented interventions in urban waste, transport and energy sectors have the highest marginal abatement potential, while system-wide interventions, e.g. urban form related measures have lower marginal abatement potential but wider scope. We also demonstrate that integrating measures across urban sectors realizes synergies in GHG emission reductions. Our results reveal a rich evidence of techno-policy choices that together enlarge the urban solutions space and augment actions currently considered in global assessments of climate mitigation

Carbon footprints of cities and other human settlements in the UK

A growing body of literature discusses the CO2 emissions of cities. Still, little is known about emission patterns across density gradients from remote rural places to highly urbanized areas, the drivers behind those emission patterns and the global emissions triggered by consumption in human settlements—referred to here as the carbon footprint. In this letter we use a hybrid method for estimating the carbon footprints of cities and other human settlements in the UK explicitly linking global supply chains to local consumption activities and associated lifestyles. This analysis comprises all areas in the UK, whether rural or urban. We compare our consumption-based results with extended territorial CO2 emission estimates and analyse the driving forces that determine the carbon footprint of human settlements in the UK. Our results show that 90% of the human settlements in the UK are net importers of CO2 emissions. Consumption-based CO2 emissions are much more homogeneous than extended territorial emissions. Both the highest and lowest carbon footprints can be found in urban areas, but the carbon footprint is consistently higher relative to extended territorial CO2 emissions in urban as opposed to rural settlement types. The impact of high or low density living remains limited; instead, carbon footprints can be comparatively high or low across density gradients depending on the location-specific socio-demographic, infrastructural and geographic characteristics of the area under consideration. We show that the carbon footprint of cities and other human settlements in the UK is mainly determined by socio-economic rather than geographic and infrastructural drivers at the spatial aggregation of our analysis. It increases with growing income, education and car ownership as well as decreasing household size. Income is not more important than most other socio-economic determinants of the carbon footprint. Possibly, the relationship between lifestyles and infrastructure only impacts carbon footprints significantly at higher spatial granularity