If Europe were a country...

If Europe were a country, what would its vital statistics show? Figure 1 show how crude mortality rates – the probability of being dead within the next twelve months – have varied with age and with time, for both males and females, within European nations from 1751 to 2011. The data are arranged to form a Lexis surface, a statistical canvas where one of the axes represents year and the other represents age (Lexis, 1875) At each combination of age and year is a value, mortality rate. Conceptually, the mortality rate is the ‘height’ of the Lexis surface at each of many tens of thousands of combinations of age and year, meaning the shaded contour plots here allow the visualisation of tens of thousands of values ‘at a glance’. (Vaupel et al., 1987, 1997) By investing a little more than a glance-worth of time to these visualisations it becomes possible to use them to identify a large number of complex features and patterns in the data.(Minton, 2013, 2014; Minton et al., 2013) All available data of European countries from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) were used. (Human Mortality Database, 2014) For almost three quarters of a century, from 1751 to 1815, this was just Sweden. From 1816 to 1850, six more countries’ records became available, then another three during the second half of the nineteenth century. Data for the latter half of the twentieth century were drawn from over twenty nations, a combined population size of almost half a billion citizens. The contour plots involved bolting together data from many different countries, and required relying on a few countries to tell the start of the story of modern Europe. Despite this, and despite being the main arena of two world wars and like the rest of the globe experiencing the deadliest infectious disease outbreak ever recorded, the contour plots seem to tell a single, cohesive, positive story, of vastly reduced infant mortality and the emergence of a childhood ever safer from harm, reduced risk of death during adulthood, and the pushing back of biological ageing to ever great chronological ages. Not quite ‘forever young’, but ‘younger, longer’

Visualising variation in mortality rates across the life course and by sex, USA and comparator states, 1933–2010

Background Previous research showed that younger adult males in the USA have, since the 1950s, died at a faster rate than females of the same age. In this paper, we quantify this difference, and explore possible explanations for the differences at different ages and in different years. Methods Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the number of additional male deaths per 10 000 female deaths was calculated for each year from 1933 to 2010, and for each year of age from 0 to 60 years, for the USA, and a number of other countries for comparison. The data were explored visually using shaded contour plots. Results Gender differences in excess mortality have increased. Coming of age (between the ages of 15 and 25 years of age) is especially perilous for men relative to women now compared with the past in the USA; the visualisations highlight this change as important. Conclusions Sex differences in mortality risks at various ages are not static. While women may today have an advantage when it comes to life expectancy, in the USA, this has greatly increased since the 1930s. Just as young adulthood for women has been made safer through safer antenatal and childbirth practices, changes in public policy can make the social environment safer for men

The Economic impact of Florida's recreational boating industry in 1985

The recreational boating industry is an important component of Florida's economy. Previous Florida Sea Grant College supported research has documented this economic importance to the state's economy in 1980 (see Milon and Riddle, 1983, and Milon et al. 1983). Since that initial research, the manufacturing, retailing, and service sectors comprising the industry have continued to grow and prosper as the state's resident and tourist populations increased. This report is an update on the economic significance of the recreational boating industry in Florida since 1980 based on economic indicators of change within the industry. (21pp.

Friction stir welding of commercially available superplastic aluminium

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.A series of Friction Stir Welds (FSW) has been produced in order to optimise tool designs and weld/process variables to minimise flaws in the weld and obtain the best possible microstructure for superplastic Forming (SPF). Therefore the main goal is to produce friction stir welds which do not fail during subsequent SPF processes. The friction stir welds have been created using novel tools which are oversized for the material thickness used; this creates a wider weld region of fine equiaxed grains which are suitable for SPF. These original tools have been compared to tools which are already in mainstream FSW production. The welds created for this investigation also represent an evolution of friction stir welding by starting with a milling machine; a very basic piece of engineering workshop equipment. This was then replaced by a modified milling machine with force monitoring capabilities and finally using a state of the art dedicated FSW machine for the final welds. Room temperature properties are not usually a good indicator of high temperature response; however in this thesis the room temperature properties are closely linked to the FSW microstructure and have been used to assess the suitability of the weld structure for subsequent superplastic forming operations. The welds created for this thesis have been completed using hot and cold welding conditions, evaluated for room temperature properties and microstructural stability. The results have then been used to assess the welds and select the most suitable structure for cone testing, which is used to test the welds‘ performance during SPF. Friction stir welds were then recreated and cone tested which reveals the different levels of deformation occurring across the entire weld section and the unaffected parent material. Specimens in the as-welded, post-weld annealed and post-SPF have been analysed using standard microscopy techniques and Electron Back-Scattered Diffraction (EBSD). Welds in Aluminium Alloy (AA) 2004 with excellent room temperature properties have been created and shown to be capable of superplastic deformation achieving strain greater than 200%. Welds in AA5083, although producing excellent room temperature properties are unable to deform superplastically due to the difference in strengthening mechanisms employed by the different alloys. AA2004 contains Al3Zr which effectively pins the microstructure allowing grain boundary sliding to occur, AA5083 lacks this grain refinement element and so suffers from abnormal grain growth leading to early failure.Brunel University and EPSR

Visualising and quantifying 'excess deaths' in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe

BACKGROUND: Scotland has higher mortality rates than the rest of Western Europe (rWE), with more cardiovascular disease and cancer among older adults; and alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and violence among younger adults. METHODS: We obtained sex, age-specific and year-specific all-cause mortality rates for Scotland and other populations, and explored differences in mortality both visually and numerically. RESULTS: Scotland's age-specific mortality was higher than the rest of the UK (rUK) since 1950, and has increased. Between the 1950s and 2000s, 'excess deaths' by age 80 per 100 000 population associated with living in Scotland grew from 4341 to 7203 compared with rUK, and from 4132 to 8828 compared with rWE. UK-wide mortality risk compared with rWE also increased, from 240 'excess deaths' in the 1950s to 2320 in the 2000s. Cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s throughout the UK including Scotland had lower mortality risk than comparable rWE populations, especially for males. Mortality rates were higher in Scotland than rUK and rWE among younger adults from the 1990s onwards suggesting an age-period interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Worsening mortality among young adults in the past 30 years reversed a relative advantage evident for those born between 1950 and 1960. Compared with rWE, Scotland and rUK have followed similar trends but Scotland has started from a worse position and had worse working age-period effects in the 1990s and 2000s

Evaluation of the SSRCT engine with a hydrazine as a fuel, phase 1

The performance parameters for the space shuttle reaction control thruster (SSRCT) when the fuel is changed from monomethylhydrazine to hydrazine were predicted. Potential problems are higher chamber wall temperature during steady state operation and explosive events during pulse mode operation. Solutions to the problems are suggested. To conduct the analysis, a more realistic film cooling model was devised which considers that hydrazine based fuels are reactive when used as a film coolant on the walls of the combustion chamber. Hydrazine based fuels can decompose exothermally as a monopropellant and also enter into bipropellant reactions with any excess oxidizer in the combustion chamber. It is concluded that the conversion of the thruster from MMH to hydrazine fuel is feasible but that a number of changes would be required to achieve the same safety margins as the monomethylhydrazine-fueled thruster

Evaluation of the SSRCS engine with hydrazine as a fuel, phase 2

Test firing of the Space Shuttle Reaction Control Thruster (SSRCT) was conducted to determine the characteristic velocity and chamber throat temperatures when the fuel is changed from monomethylhydrazine (MMH) to hydrazine. Thruster performance with hydrazine was essentially as predicted. Characteristic velocity at a mixture ratio of 1.4 (equal volumetric flow) for hydrazine was 5180 feet/second compared with 5110 feet/second at a mixture of 1.6 for MMH. Specific impulse with 22:1 nozzle is calculated to be 280 lbf-sec/lbm. Thermal performance, as measured by chamber throat temperature, was dramatically different (colder) than predicted. Throat temperatures of 2330 F were predicted from a cooling model which assumed a reactive liquid cooling film. Throat temperatures of 800 - 1000 F were measured. An attempt to reconcile the differences between film cooling predictions and the measurements, indicated that an evaporation (nonreactive fluid) model rather than a decomposition (reactive fluid) model best fits the test data at 0/F = 1.4. At higher mixture ratios, a transition to temperatures typical of the reactive fluid model were observed

Exploring the relationship between baseline physical activity levels and mortality reduction associated with increases in physical activity : a modelling study

Background Increasing physical activity (PA) levels among the general adult population of developed nations is important for reducing premature mortality and the burdens of preventable illness. Assessing how effective PA interventions are as health interventions often involves categorising participants as either ‘active’ or ‘sedentary’ after the interventions. A model was developed showing that doing this could significantly misestimate the health effect of PA interventions. Methods A life table model was constructed combining evidence on baseline PA levels with evidence indicating the non-linear relationship between PA levels and all-cause mortality risks. PA intervention scenarios were modelled which had the same mean increase in PA but different levels of take-up by people who were more active or more sedentary to begin with. Results The model simulations indicated that, compared with a scenario where already-active people did most of the additional PA, a scenario where the least active did the most additional PA was around a third more effective in preventing deaths between the ages of 50 and 60 years. The relationship between distribution of PA take-up and health effect was explored systematically and appeared non-linear. Conclusions As the health gains of a given PA increase are greatest among people who are most sedentary, smaller increases in PA in the least active may have the same health benefits as much larger PA increases in the most active. To help such health effects to be assessed, PA studies should report changes in the distribution of PA level between the start and end of the study

Antibiotic resistance: estimating the population level distribution of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBLs) in West Yorkshire, UK

Antibiotic resistance is of concern and GPs are encouraged to reduce prescribing levels. An important type of antimicrobial resistance is caused by Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamases. This study aims to establish whether obtaining faecal samples is an acceptable form of ‘screening’ and to use GIS methods to analyse diagnoses. There are observable differences in levels of resistance within Bradford and Leeds and inverse distance weighting provides an estimated surface of resistance. A spatial cluster of unusually high antibiotic resistance is found within Bradford. This deserves further study as does the use of data with improved geographic resolution and wider geographical coverage