Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

Compositional Variations in Sands of the Bagnold Dunes, Gale Crater, Mars, from Visible-Shortwave Infrared Spectroscopy and Comparison to Ground-Truth from the Curiosity Rover

During its ascent up Mount Sharp, the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover traversed the Bagnold Dune Field. We model sand modal mineralogy and grain size at four locations near the rover traverse, using orbital shortwave infrared single-scattering albedo spectra and a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of Hapke's radiative transfer theory to fully constrain uncertainties and permitted solutions. These predictions, evaluated against in situ measurements at one site from the Curiosity rover, show that X-ray diffraction-measured mineralogy of the basaltic sands is within the 95% confidence interval of model predictions. However, predictions are relatively insensitive to grain size and are nonunique, especially when modeling the composition of minerals with solid solutions. We find an overall basaltic mineralogy and show subtle spatial variations in composition in and around the Bagnold Dunes, consistent with a mafic enrichment of sands with cumulative aeolian-transport distance by sorting of olivine, pyroxene, and plagioclase grains. Furthermore, the large variations in Fe and Mg abundances (~20 wt %) at the Bagnold Dunes suggest that compositional variability may be enhanced by local mixing of well-sorted sand with proximal sand sources. Our estimates demonstrate a method for orbital quantification of composition with rigorous uncertainty determination and provide key constraints for interpreting in situ measurements of compositional variability within Martian aeolian sandstones

Trigonometric Regressive Spectral Analysis Reliably Maps Dynamic Changes in Baroreflex Sensitivity and Autonomic Tone: The Effect of Gender and Age

BACKGROUND: The assessment of baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) has emerged as prognostic tool in cardiology. Although available computer-assisted methods, measuring spontaneous fluctuations of heart rate and blood pressure in the time and frequency domain are easily applicable, they do not allow for quantification of BRS during cardiovascular adaption processes. This, however, seems an essential criterion for clinical application. We evaluated a novel algorithm based on trigonometric regression regarding its ability to map dynamic changes in BRS and autonomic tone during cardiovascular provocation in relation to gender and age. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We continuously recorded systemic arterial pressure, electrocardiogram and respiration in 23 young subjects (25+/-2 years) and 22 middle-aged subjects (56+/-4 years) during cardiovascular autonomic testing (metronomic breathing, Valsalva manoeuvre, head-up tilt). Baroreflex- and spectral analysis was performed using the algorithm of trigonometric regressive spectral analysis. There was an age-related decline in spontaneous BRS and high frequency oscillations of RR intervals. Changes in autonomic tone evoked by cardiovascular provocation were observed as shifts in the ratio of low to high frequency oscillations of RR intervals and blood pressure. Respiration at 0.1 Hz elicited an increase in BRS while head-up tilt and Valsalva manoeuvre resulted in a downregulation of BRS. The extent of autonomic adaption was in general more pronounced in young individuals and declined stronger with age in women than in men. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The trigonometric regressive spectral analysis reliably maps age- and gender-related differences in baroreflex- and autonomic function and is able to describe adaption processes of baroreceptor circuit during cardiovascular stimulation. Hence, this novel algorithm may be a useful screening tool to detect abnormalities in cardiovascular adaption processes even when resting values appear to be normal

Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

Low fingertip temperature rebound measured by digital thermal monitoring strongly correlates with the presence and extent of coronary artery disease diagnosed by 64-slice multi-detector computed tomography

Previous studies showed strong correlations between low fingertip temperature rebound measured by digital thermal monitoring (DTM) during a 5 min arm-cuff induced reactive hyperemia and both the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic populations. This study evaluates the correlation between DTM and coronary artery disease (CAD) measured by CT angiography (CTA) in symptomatic patients. It also investigates the correlation between CTA and a new index of neurovascular reactivity measured by DTM. 129 patients, age 63 ± 9 years, 68% male, underwent DTM, CAC and CTA. Adjusted DTM indices in the occluded arm were calculated: temperature rebound: aTR and area under the temperature curve aTMP-AUC. DTM neurovascular reactivity (NVR) index was measured based on increased fingertip temperature in the non-occluded arm. Obstructive CAD was defined as ≥50% luminal stenosis, and normal as no stenosis and CAC = 0. Baseline fingertip temperature was not different across the groups. However, all DTM indices of vascular and neurovascular reactivity significantly decreased from normal to non-obstructive to obstructive CAD [(aTR 1.77 ± 1.18 to 1.24 ± 1.14 to 0.94 ± 0.92) (P = 0.009), (aTMP-AUC: 355.6 ± 242.4 to 277.4 ± 182.4 to 184.4 ± 171.2) (P = 0.001), (NVR: 161.5 ± 147.4 to 77.6 ± 88.2 to 48.8 ± 63.8) (P = 0.015)]. After adjusting for risk factors, the odds ratio for obstructive CAD compared to normal in the lowest versus two upper tertiles of FRS, aTR, aTMP-AUC, and NVR were 2.41 (1.02–5.93), P = 0.05, 8.67 (2.6–9.4), P = 0.001, 11.62 (5.1–28.7), P = 0.001, and 3.58 (1.09–11.69), P = 0.01, respectively. DTM indices and FRS combined resulted in a ROC curve area of 0.88 for the prediction of obstructive CAD. In patients suspected of CAD, low fingertip temperature rebound measured by DTM significantly predicted CTA-diagnosed obstructive disease

Levels of selected minerals, nitric oxide, and vitamins in aborted Sakis sheep raised under semitropical conditions

The serum levels of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, copper, zinc and iron and of nitric oxide, retinol, and β-carotene were determined in Sakiz ewes that had experienced an abortion and in healthy controls. Ten healthy and 25 aborted Sakiz sheep were selected from Afyon zone in western Turkey. Their ages ranged between 2 and 4 years weighing between 40 and 60 kg at the time of experiment. All of the abortions occurred in October. The concentrations of retinol, β-carotene, phosphorus, and zinc were significantly lower and those of calcium and nitric oxide were increased in aborted ewes relative to healthy controls. The serum levels of iron, copper, and magnesium were not significantly different among the two groups. In conclusion, abortion is an important problem in commercially important species of ruminants in many regions in the tropics including of western Turkey. Deficiencies of retinol, β-carotene, phosphorus and zinc, and the increase of calcium and nitric oxide concentration may play an important role in the etiology of abortion in ewes. Prophylactic measures such as vitamin and mineral supplementation may be of help to prevent or reduce the incidence of abortion in sheep

Applying social influence insights to encourage climate resilient domestic water behaviour: Bridging the theory-practice gap

Water scarcity is one of the most pressing issues of our time and it is projected to increase as global demand surges and climate change limits fresh water availability. If we are to reduce water demand, it is essential that we draw on every tool in the box, including one that is underestimated and underutilised: social influence. Research from the psychological sciences demonstrates that behaviour is strongly influenced by the behaviour of others, and that social influence can be harnessed to develop cost-effective strategies to encourage climate resilient behaviour. Far less attention has been paid to investigating water-related interventions in comparison to interventions surrounding energy. In this paper we consider the application of three social influence strategies to encourage water conservation: social norms; social identity; and socially-comparative feedback. We not only review their empirical evidence base, but also offer an example of their application in the residential sector with the aim of highlighting how theoretical insights can be translated into practice. We argue that collaborations between researchers and industry are essential if we are to maximise the potential of behaviour change interventions to encourage climate resilient water behaviour

Gene Expression Profiling of Two Distinct Neuronal Populations in the Rodent Spinal Cord

BACKGROUND: In the field of neuroscience microarray gene expression profiles on anatomically defined brain structures are being used increasingly to study both normal brain functions as well as pathological states. Fluorescent tracing techniques in brain tissue that identifies distinct neuronal populations can in combination with global gene expression profiling potentially increase the resolution and specificity of such studies to shed new light on neuronal functions at the cellular level. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examine the microarray gene expression profiles of two distinct neuronal populations in the spinal cord of the neonatal rat, the principal motor neurons and specific interneurons involved in motor control. The gene expression profiles of the respective cell populations were obtained from amplified mRNA originating from 50-250 fluorescently identified and laser microdissected cells. In the data analysis we combine a new microarray normalization procedure with a conglomerate measure of significant differential gene expression. Using our methodology we find 32 genes to be more expressed in the interneurons compared to the motor neurons that all except one have not previously been associated with this neuronal population. As a validation of our method we find 17 genes to be more expressed in the motor neurons than in the interneurons and of these only one had not previously been described in this population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We provide an optimized experimental protocol that allows isolation of gene transcripts from fluorescent retrogradely labeled cell populations in fresh tissue, which can be used to generate amplified aRNA for microarray hybridization from as few as 50 laser microdissected cells. Using this optimized experimental protocol in combination with our microarray analysis methodology we find 49 differentially expressed genes between the motor neurons and the interneurons that reflect the functional differences between these two cell populations in generating and transmitting the motor output in the rodent spinal cord

American Gut: an Open Platform for Citizen Science Microbiome Research

McDonald D, Hyde E, Debelius JW, et al. American Gut: an Open Platform for Citizen Science Microbiome Research. mSystems. 2018;3(3):e00031-18