What if we decided to take care of everyone who needed treatment? Workforce planning in Mozambique using simulation of demand for HIV/AIDS care

Background: The growing AIDS epidemic in southern Africa is placing an increased strain on health systems, which are experiencing steadily rising patient loads. Health care systems are tackling the barriers to serving large populations in scaled-up operations. One of the most significant challenges in this effort is securing the health care workforce to deliver care in settings where the manpower is already in short supply. Methods: We have produced a demand-driven staffing model using simple spreadsheet technology, based on treatment protocols for HIV-positive patients that adhere to Mozambican guidelines. The model can be adjusted for the volumes of patients at differing stages of their disease, varying provider productivity, proportion who are pregnant, attrition rates, and other variables. Results: Our model projects the need for health workers using three different kinds of goals: 1) the number of patients to be placed on anti-retroviral therapy (ART), 2) the number of HIV-positive patients to be enrolled for treatment, and 3) the number of patients to be enrolled in a treatment facility per month. Conclusion: We propose three scenarios, depending on numbers of patients enrolled. In the first scenario, we start with 8000 patients on ART and increase that number to 58 000 at the end of three years (those were the goals for the country of Mozambique). This would require thirteen clinicians and just over ten nurses by the end of the first year, and 67 clinicians and 47 nurses at the end of the third year. In a second scenario, we start with 34 000 patients enrolled for care (not all of them on ART), and increase to 94 000 by the end of the third year, requiring a growth in clinician staff from 18 to 28. In a third scenario, we start a new clinic and enrol 200 new patients per month for three years, requiring 1.2 clinicians in year 1 and 2.2 by the end of year 3. Other clinician types in the model include nurses, social workers, pharmacists, phlebotomists, and peer counsellors. This planning tool could lead to more realistic and appropriate estimates of workforce levels required to provide high-quality HIV care in a low-resource settings

Causes of variation in BCG vaccine efficacy: examining evidence from the BCG REVAC cluster randomized trial to explore the masking and the blocking hypotheses.

BCG protection varies and in some places (nearest the equator) is low or absent. Understanding this variation can inform the efforts to develop new vaccines against tuberculosis. Two main hypotheses are used to explain this variation: under masking, new vaccines are unlikely to increase protection; under blocking new vaccines have a greater potential to be effective when BCG is not. We conducted a cluster randomized trial to explored the masking and blocking hypotheses by studying BCG vaccine efficacy of neonatal vaccination and when administered for the first or a second (revaccination) time at school age in two sites (Manaus close and Salvador further south from the equator). Seven hundred and sixty three state schools were matched on socio economic characteristics of the neighborhood and 239,934 children were randomized to vaccine (BCG vaccination at school age) or control group. Protection by first BCG vaccination at school age was high in Salvador (34%, 95% CI 7-53%, p=0.017) but low in Manaus (8%, 95% CI t0 39-40%, p=0.686). For revaccination at school age, protection was modest in Salvador (19%, 95% CI 3-33%, p=0.022) and absent in Manaus (1%, 95% CI to 27-23%, p=0.932). Vaccine efficacy for neonatal vaccination was similar in Salvador (40%, 95% CI 22-54%, p<0.001) and Manaus (36%, 95% CI 11-53%, p=0.008). Variation in BCG efficacy was marked when vaccine was given at school age but absent at birth, which points towards blocking as the dominant mechanism. New tuberculosis vaccines that overcome or by pass this blocking effect could confer protection in situations where BCG is not protective

Expression of recombinant Araraquara Hantavirus nucleoprotein in insect cells and its use as an antigen for immunodetection compared to the same antigen expressed in Escherichia coli

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antigens for Hantavirus serological tests have been produced using DNA recombinant technology for more than twenty years. Several different strategies have been used for that purpose. All of them avoid the risks and difficulties involved in multiplying Hantavirus in the laboratory. In Brazil, the Araraquara virus is one of the main causes of Hantavirus Cardio-Pulmonary Syndrome (HCPS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this investigation, we report the expression of the N protein of the Araraquara Hantavirus in a Baculovirus Expression System, the use of this protein in IgM and IgG ELISA and comparison with the same antigen generated in <it>E. coli</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The protein obtained, and purified in a nickel column, was effectively recognized by antibodies from confirmed HCPS patients. Comparison of the baculovirus generated antigen with the N protein produced in <it>E. coli </it>showed that both were equally effective in terms of sensitivity and specificity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results therefore indicate that either of these proteins can be used in serological tests in Brazil.</p

Initial impact and cost of a nationwide population screening campaign for diabetes in Brazil: A follow up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2001 Brazilian citizens aged 40 or older were invited to participate in a nationwide population screening program for diabetes. Capillary glucose screening tests and procedures for diagnostic confirmation were offered through the national healthcare system, diagnostic priority being given according to the severity of screening results. The objective of this study is to evaluate the initial impact of the program.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Positive testing was defined by a fasting capillary glucose ≥ 100 mg/dL or casual glucose ≥ 140 mg/dL. All test results were tabulated locally and aggregate data by gender and clinical categories were sent to the Ministry of Health. To analyze individual characteristics of screening tests performed, a stratified random sample of 90,106 tests was drawn. To describe the actions taken for positive screenees, a random sub-sample of 4,906 positive screenees was actively followed up through home interviews.</p> <p>Main outcome measures considered were the number of diabetes cases diagnosed and cost per case detected and incorporated into healthcare.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 22,069,905 screening tests performed, we estimate that 3,417,106 (95% CI 3.1 – 3.7 million) were positive and that 346,168 (290,454 – 401,852) new cases were diagnosed (10.1% of positives), 319,157 (92.2%) of these being incorporated into healthcare. The number of screening tests needed to detect one case of diabetes was 64. As many cases of untreated but previously known diabetes were also linked to healthcare providers during the Campaign, the estimated number needed screen to incorporate one case into the healthcare system was 58. Total screening and diagnostic costs were US$26.19 million, the cost per diabetes case diagnosed being US$ 76. Results were especially sensitive to proportion of individuals returning for diagnostic confirmation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This nationwide population-based screening program, conducted through primary healthcare services, demonstrates the feasibility, within the context of an organized national healthcare system, of screening campaigns for chronic diseases. Although overall costs were significant, cost per new case diagnosed was lower than previously reported. However, cost-effectiveness analysis based on more clinically significant outcomes needs to be conducted before this screening approach can be recommended in other settings.</p

Cost-effectiveness of a national population-based screening program for type 2 diabetes: the Brazil experience

Background: The cost-effectiveness of screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) in developing countries remains unknown. The Brazilian government conducted a nationwide population screening program for type 2 diabetes mellitus (BNDSP) in which 22 million capillary glucose tests were performed in individuals aged 40 years and older. The objective of this study was to evaluate the life-time cost-effectiveness of a national population-based screening program for DM2 conducted in Brazil. Methods: We used a Markov-based cost-effectiveness model to simulate the long-term costs and benefits of screening for DM2, compared to no screening program. The analysis was conducted from a public health care system perspective. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of results to key model parameters. Results: Brazilian National diabetes screening program will yield a large health benefit and higher costs. Compared with no screening, screen detection of undiagnosed diabetes resulted in US$31,147 per QALY gained. Results from sensitivity analyses found that screening targeted at hypertensive individuals would cost US$ 22,695/QALY. When benefits from early glycemic control on cardiovascular outcomes were considered, the cost per QALY gained would reduce significantly. Conclusions: In the base case analysis, not considering the intangible benefit of transferring diabetes management to primary care nor the benefit of using statin to treat eligible diabetic patients, CE ratios were not cost-effective considering thresholds proposed by the World Health Organization. However, significant uncertainty was demonstrated in sensitivity analysis. Our results indicate that policy-makers should carefully balance the benefit and cost of the program while considering using a population-based approach to screen for diabetes