Including the Human Dimension into Resilience Planning for Maine’s Lobster Fishery

The American lobster fishery is one of the most valuable in the US but is being affected by climate-driven shifts in lobster availability, impacting people’s ability to harvest the resource and sparking broader adaptation challenges. Since the late 1990s, lobster landings in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) have climbed to record levels while those in Southern New England (SNE) have experienced significant declines. The experiences of SNE lobstermen during these declines can offer important lessons for both individual lobstermen and communities in the GOM, where lobster abundance is currently at high levels but facing future uncertainty given continuing climate trends. In this commentary we gather insights from a news analysis and interviews with SNE lobstermen to examine resilience pathways and dimensions, and consider ways forward for supporting social resilience in the Maine fishery. We highlight a range of adaptation pathways and actions that have been undertaken in SNE and the complex considerations associated with them. We apply these insights into three generalized learnings for Maine: 1) encourage diversity in preferences, capacities and strategies for people responding to shifting lobster availability; 2) progress collaborative social and economic resilience research for the fishery; and 3) move beyond reliance on industry innovation to instead cross-regional learning and integrative, cross-sectoral approaches for management and resilience planning to enable more holistic decision-making and action

Forecasting the seasonal timing of Maine's lobster fishery

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Marine Science 4 (2017): 337, doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00337.The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared for the early and abundant landings of lobsters. Motivated by this series of events, we have developed a forecast of when the Maine (USA) lobster fishery will shift into its high volume summer landings period. The forecast uses a regression approach to relate spring ocean temperatures derived from four NERACOOS buoys along the coast of Maine to the start day of the high landings period of the fishery. Tested against conditions in past years, the forecast is able to predict the start day to within 1 week of the actual start, and the forecast can be issued 3–4 months prior to the onset of the high-landings period, providing valuable lead-time for the fishery and its associated supply chain to prepare for the upcoming season. Forecast results are conveyed in a probabilistic manner and are updated weekly over a 6-week forecasting period so that users can assess the certainty and consistency of the forecast and factor the uncertainty into their use of the information in a given year. By focusing on the timing of events, this type of seasonal forecast provides climate-relevant information to users at time scales that are meaningful for operational decisions. As climate change alters seasonal phenology and reduces the reliability of past experience as a guide for future expectations, this type of forecast can enable fishing industry participants to better adjust to and prepare for operating in the context of climate change.This forecast was initiated with support from NSF Coastal SEES (OCE 1325484) and was developed with funds from NASA EPSCoR through Maine Space Grant Consortium (EP-15-03)

Identifying New England’s underutilized seafood species and evaluating their market potential in a changing climate

Developing and diversifying market opportunities for lesser known yet abundant seafood species has been a successful strategy for seafood businesses in the Northeast United States. Since climate change and other stressors are currently threatening the economic vitality of New England’s seafood industry, it is important to identify if there are lesser-known species that could simultaneously support additional market opportunities and remain resilient in a warming climate. We developed a quantitative definition for the term “underutilized species’’ based on five criteria derived from science-based sustainable fishing metrics. Using this definition, we evaluated 47 stocks in the Northeast United States during the initial time period of 2013-2017 to identify seven underutilized finfish species that could be considered for new market opportunities as part of a climate-smart approach: 1) Acadian redfish (Sebastes fasciatus), 2) Atlantic pollock (Pollachius virens), 3) butterfish (Peprilus triacanthus), 4) haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), 5) scup (Stenotomus chrysops), 6) silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis), and 7) white hake (Urophycis tenuis). The climate resiliency of these resulting seven species was then evaluated using a framework consisting of species-specific metrics on climate sensitivity, directionality (of responses to climate impacts) and future habitat availability under warming scenarios. Our results show that assessing underutilized species on a regular basis and evaluating their ongoing responses to climate change can be a part of a climate-smart approach towards building more diversified and adaptive markets

Atmospheric oxidation chemistry and ozone production: Results from SHARP 2009 in Houston, Texas

This study considers whether spikes in nitrate in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland, from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, solar proton event (SPE)-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies

Nitrate deposition to surface snow at Summit, Greenland, following the 9 November 2000 solar proton event

Abstract This study considers whether spikes in nitrate in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland, from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, solar proton event (SPE)-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies. Key Points A global model simulates nitrate deposition from solar proton events Soluble ion correlations in Summit snow identify tropospheric sources of nitrate Nitrate ions in snow are found not to be a good proxy for solar proton events

Race-specific spirometry equations may overestimate asthma control in Black children and adolescents

Background A growing body of evidence suggests that use of race terms in spirometry reference equations underestimates disease burden in Black populations, which may lead to disparities in pulmonary disease outcomes. Data on asthma-specific health consequences of using race-adjusted spirometry are lacking. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of 163 children from two observational asthma studies to determine the frequencies of participants with ppFEV1 < 80% (consistent with uncontrolled asthma) or ppFEV1 ≥ 80% using race-specific (GLI-African American or Caucasian) vs. race-neutral (GLI-Global) spirometry and their alignment with indicators of asthma control (Asthma Control Test™, ACT). Comparisons of mean ppFEV1 values were conducted using Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank tests. Two group comparisons were conducted using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Results Data from 163 children (100 Black, 63 White) were analyzed. Mean ppFEV1 was 95.4% (SD 15.8) using race-specific spirometry and 90.4% (16.3) using race-neutral spirometry (p < 0.0001). Among 54 Black children with uncontrolled asthma (ACT ≤ 19), 20% had ppFEV1 < 80% using race-specific spirometry compared to 40% using race-neutral spirometry. In Black children with controlled asthma (ACT > 19), 87% had ppFEV1 ≥ 80% using race-specific compared to 67% using race-neutral spirometry. Children whose ppFEV1 changed to ≤ 80% with race-neutral spirometry had lower FEV1/FVC compared to those whose ppFEV1 remained ≥ 80% [0.83 (0.07) vs. 0.77 (0.05), respectively; p = 0.04], suggesting greater airway obstruction. Minimal changes in alignment of ppFEV1 with ACT score were observed for White children. Conclusions Use of race-specific reference equations in Black children may increase the risk of inappropriately labeling asthma as controlled

Neurodevelopmental effects of chronic exposure to elevated levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in a developing visual system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Imbalances in the regulation of pro-inflammatory cytokines have been increasingly correlated with a number of severe and prevalent neurodevelopmental disorders, including autism spectrum disorder, schizophrenia and Down syndrome. Although several studies have shown that cytokines have potent effects on neural function, their role in neural development is still poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the link between abnormal cytokine levels and neural development using the <it>Xenopus laevis </it>tadpole visual system, a model frequently used to examine the anatomical and functional development of neural circuits.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using a test for a visually guided behavior that requires normal visual system development, we examined the long-term effects of prolonged developmental exposure to three pro-inflammatory cytokines with known neural functions: interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α. We found that all cytokines affected the development of normal visually guided behavior. Neuroanatomical imaging of the visual projection showed that none of the cytokines caused any gross abnormalities in the anatomical organization of this projection, suggesting that they may be acting at the level of neuronal microcircuits. We further tested the effects of TNF-α on the electrophysiological properties of the retinotectal circuit and found that long-term developmental exposure to TNF-α resulted in enhanced spontaneous excitatory synaptic transmission in tectal neurons, increased AMPA/NMDA ratios of retinotectal synapses, and a decrease in the number of immature synapses containing only NMDA receptors, consistent with premature maturation and stabilization of these synapses. Local interconnectivity within the tectum also appeared to remain widespread, as shown by increased recurrent polysynaptic activity, and was similar to what is seen in more immature, less refined tectal circuits. TNF-α treatment also enhanced the overall growth of tectal cell dendrites. Finally, we found that TNF-α-reared tadpoles had increased susceptibility to pentylenetetrazol-induced seizures.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Taken together our data are consistent with a model in which TNF-α causes premature stabilization of developing synapses within the tectum, therefore preventing normal refinement and synapse elimination that occurs during development, leading to increased local connectivity and epilepsy. This experimental model also provides an integrative approach to understanding the effects of cytokines on the development of neural circuits and may provide novel insights into the etiology underlying some neurodevelopmental disorders.</p

Multispecies population-scale emergence of climate change signals in an ocean warming hotspot

Ocean waters of the Northeast US continental shelf have warmed rapidly in recent years, with sea surface temperatures rising 2.5 times faster than those of the global oceans. With this strong warming trend, the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have increased. These temperature changes stood out as a distinct warm temperature regime during the 2010s. During this decade, fish population characteristics also differed from the past. Species distribution shifts were detected for many species, demonstrating one way species could adapt to warming conditions. However, for most species, distribution shifts were insufficient to avoid warmer surface or bottom temperatures. As species occupied warmer habitats, growth patterns aligned with expectations for warming temperatures. Consistent with the temperature-size rule, some species exhibited faster growth at early life stages but plateaued at smaller body sizes; other species, however, experienced reduced growth across all ages, indicating thermal stress. Finally, population productivity indexed by the recruit-to-spawner ratio declined significantly during the 2010s for some populations. Changes in these three processes—distribution, growth, and productivity—indicate the emergence of climate change signals across multiple Northeast US fish populations. These effects create new challenges for fishery managers and industry participants operating in the context of non-stationarity and uncertainty

Dynamics and Formation of the Near-Resonant K2-24 System: Insights from Transit-Timing Variations and Radial Velocities

While planets between the size of Uranus and Saturn are absent within the Solar System, the star K2-24 hosts two such planets, K2-24b and c, with radii equal to $5.4~R_E$ and $7.5~R_E$, respectively. The two planets have orbital periods of 20.9 days and 42.4 days, residing only 1% outside the nominal 2:1 mean-motion resonance. In this work, we present results from a coordinated observing campaign to measure planet masses and eccentricities that combines radial velocity (RV) measurements from Keck/HIRES and transit-timing measurements from K2 and Spitzer. K2-24b and c have low, but non-zero, eccentricities of $e_1 \sim e_2 \sim 0.08$. The low observed eccentricities provide clues regarding the formation and dynamical evolution of K2-24b and K2-24c, suggesting that they could be the result of stochastic gravitational interactions with a turbulent protoplanetary disk, among other mechanisms. K2-24b and c are $19\pm2~M_E$ and $15\pm2~M_E$, respectively; K2-24c is 20% less massive than K2-24b, despite being 40% larger. Their large sizes and low masses imply large envelope fractions, which we estimate at $26^{+3}_{-3}\%$ and $52^{+5}_{-3}\%$. In particular, K2-24c's large envelope presents an intriguing challenge to the standard model of core nucleated accretion that predicts the onset of runaway accretion when $f_{env} \approx 50\%$.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted to A

Ecological and social strategies for managing fisheries using the Resist-Accept- Direct (RAD) framework

Fisheries management is a complex task made even more challenging by rapid and unprecedented socioecological transformations associated with climate change. The Resist-Accept- Direct (RAD) framework can be a useful tool to support fisheries management in facing the high uncertainty and variability associated with aquatic ecosystem transformations. Here, RAD strategies are presented to address ecological goals for aquatic ecosystems and social goals for fisheries. These strategies are mapped on a controllability matrix which explores the ability to guide a system\u27s behaviour towards a desired state based on ecological responsiveness and societal receptivity to change. Understanding and improving the controllability of aquatic systems and fisheries can help managers to maintain the broadest suite of available RAD management strategies