Prediction of time between CIS onset and clinical conversion to MS using Random Forests

CIS is diagnosed after a first neurological attack and can be considered an early stage of MS as ~80% of all CIS patients will have a second relapse within 20 years. The prediction of this second clinical relapse which marks the clinical conversion to MS (i.e., clinically-definite MS, CDMS) is very challenging, and many clinical and radiological predictors of CDMS have been identified. Machine learning techniques such as support vector machines (SVMs) have been widely applied to neuroimaging data in order to associate MRI features with binary clinical outcomes. A single-centre study has shown that it is possible to predict short-time conversion after 1 and 3 years with an accuracy of ~75 % using a priori defined features from baseline MRI measures and clinical characteristics, which were applied to support vector machines (SVMs). Random forests are another type of machine learning techniques that can easily be applied to regression problems, and consist of an ensemble of decision trees for regression where each tree is created from independent bootstraps from the input data. The present study shows the feasibility of using random forests with European multi-centre MRI data (obtained at CIS onset) to predict the actual date of conversion to CDMS rather than just a binary outcome at a fixed time point

VEGF(164)-mediated inflammation is required for pathological, but not physiological, ischemia-induced retinal neovascularization

Hypoxia-induced VEGF governs both physiological retinal vascular development and pathological retinal neovascularization. In the current paper, the mechanisms of physiological and pathological neovascularization are compared and contrasted. During pathological neovascularization, both the absolute and relative expression levels for VEGF(164) increased to a greater degree than during physiological neovascularization. Furthermore, extensive leukocyte adhesion was observed at the leading edge of pathological, but not physiological, neovascularization. When a VEGF(164)-specific neutralizing aptamer was administered, it potently suppressed the leukocyte adhesion and pathological neovascularization, whereas it had little or no effect on physiological neovascularization. In parallel experiments, genetically altered VEGF(164)-deficient (VEGF(120/188)) mice exhibited no difference in physiological neovascularization when compared with wild-type (VEGF(+/+)) controls. In contrast, administration of a VEGFk-1/Fc fusion protein, which blocks all VEGF isoforms, led to significant suppression of both pathological and physiological neovascularization. In addition, the targeted inactivation of monocyte lineage cells with clodronate-liposomes led to the suppression of pathological neovascularization. Conversely, the blockade of T lymphocyte-mediated immune responses with an anti-CD2 antibody exacerbated pathological neovascularization. These data highlight important molecular and cellular differences between physiological and pathological retinal neovascularization. During pathological neovascularization, VEGF(164) selectively induces inflammation and cellular immunity. These processes provide positive and negative angiogenic regulation, respectively. Together, new therapeutic approaches for selectively targeting pathological, but not physiological, retinal neovascularization are outlined

Regional patterns of grey matter atrophy and magnetisation transfer ratio abnormalities in multiple sclerosis clinical subgroups: A voxel-based analysis study.

In multiple sclerosis (MS), demyelination and neuro-axonal loss occur in the brain grey matter (GM). We used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of GM magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR) and volume to assess the regional localisation of reduced MTR (reflecting demyelination) and atrophy (reflecting neuro-axonal loss) in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS)

ADvanced IMage Algebra (ADIMA): a novel method for depicting multiple sclerosis lesion heterogeneity, as demonstrated by quantitative MRI.

There are modest correlations between multiple sclerosis (MS) disability and white matter lesion (WML) volumes, as measured by T2-weighted (T2w) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans (T2-WML). This may partly reflect pathological heterogeneity in WMLs, which is not apparent on T2w scans

Sebomic identification of sex- and ethnicity-specific variations in residual skin surface components (RSSC) for bio-monitoring or forensic applications

Background: “Residual skin surface components” (RSSC) is the collective term used for the superficial layer of sebum, residue of sweat, small quantities of intercellular lipids and components of natural moisturising factor present on the skin surface. Potential applications of RSSC include use as a sampling matrix for identifying biomarkers of disease, environmental exposure monitoring, and forensics (retrospective identification of exposure to toxic chemicals). However, it is essential to first define the composition of “normal” RSSC. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to characterise RSSC to determine commonalities and differences in RSSC composition in relation to sex and ethnicity. Methods: Samples of RSSC were acquired from volunteers using a previously validated method and analysed by high-pressure liquid chromatography–atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation–mass spectrometry (HPLC-APCI-MS). The resulting data underwent sebomic analysis. Results: The composition and abundance of RSSC components varied according to sex and ethnicity. The normalised abundance of free fatty acids, wax esters, diglycerides and triglycerides was significantly higher in males than females. Ethnicity-specific differences were observed in free fatty acids and a diglyceride. Conclusions: The HPLC-APCI-MS method developed in this study was successfully used to analyse the normal composition of RSSC. Compositional differences in the RSSC can be attributed to sex and ethnicity and may reflect underlying factors such as diet, hormonal levels and enzyme expression.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Prediction of second neurological attack in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using support vector machines

The aim of this study is to predict the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using support vector machines. The two groups of converters and non-converters are classified using features that were calculated from baseline data of 73 patients. The data consists of standard magnetic resonance images, binary lesion masks, and clinical and demographic information. 15 features were calculated and all combinations of them were iteratively tested for their predictive capacity using polynomial kernels and radial basis functions with leave-one-out cross-validation. The accuracy of this prediction is up to 86.4% with a sensitivity and specificity in the same range indicating that this is a feasible approach for the prediction of a second clinical attack in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, and that the chosen features are appropriate. The two features gender and location of onset lesions have been used in all feature combinations leading to a high accuracy suggesting that they are highly predictive. However, it is necessary to add supporting features to maximise the accuracy. © 2013 IEEE

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making