Saturation Effects and the Concurrency Hypothesis: Insights from an Analytic Model

Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic populations with and without concurrency to allow for an investigation of its effects. Our models assume that partnerships change in time and individuals enter and leave the at-risk population. Infected individuals transmit at a constant per-partnership rate to their susceptible partners. In our idealized populations we find regions of parameter space where the existence of concurrent partnerships leads to substantially faster growth and higher equilibrium levels, but also regions in which the existence of concurrent partnerships has very little impact on the growth or the equilibrium. Additionally we find mixed regimes in which concurrency significantly increases the early growth, but has little effect on the ultimate equilibrium level. Guided by model predictions, we discuss general conditions under which concurrent relationships would be expected to have large or small effects in real-world settings. Our observation that the impact of concurrency saturates suggests that concurrency-reducing interventions may be most effective in populations with low to moderate concurrency

Analytic Methods for Optimizing Realtime Crowdsourcing

Realtime crowdsourcing research has demonstrated that it is possible to recruit paid crowds within seconds by managing a small, fast-reacting worker pool. Realtime crowds enable crowd-powered systems that respond at interactive speeds: for example, cameras, robots and instant opinion polls. So far, these techniques have mainly been proof-of-concept prototypes: research has not yet attempted to understand how they might work at large scale or optimize their cost/performance trade-offs. In this paper, we use queueing theory to analyze the retainer model for realtime crowdsourcing, in particular its expected wait time and cost to requesters. We provide an algorithm that allows requesters to minimize their cost subject to performance requirements. We then propose and analyze three techniques to improve performance: push notifications, shared retainer pools, and precruitment, which involves recalling retainer workers before a task actually arrives. An experimental validation finds that precruited workers begin a task 500 milliseconds after it is posted, delivering results below the one-second cognitive threshold for an end-user to stay in flow.Comment: Presented at Collective Intelligence conference, 201

Space use by foragers consuming renewable resources

We study a simple model of a forager as a walk that modifies a relaxing substrate. Within it simplicity, this provides an insight on a number of relevant and non-intuitive facts. Even without memory of the good places to feed and no explicit cost of moving, we observe the emergence of a finite home range. We characterize the walks and the use of resources in several statistical ways, involving the behavior of the average used fraction of the system, the length of the cycles followed by the walkers, and the frequency of visits to plants. Preliminary results on population effects are explored by means of a system of two non directly interacting animals. Properties of the overlap of home ranges show the existence of a set of parameters that provides the best utilization of the shared resource