Decadal Growth of Traffic Volume on US Highway 2 in Northwestern Montana

We measured vehicle traffic volume at two locations on US Highway 2 along the southern boundary of Glacier National Park during 2012 and 2013 and then compared results to those collected during 1999 through 2001.  We show that traffic volumes have increased substantially in the 11 years between counts and that the increases are most dramatic during the hours in which grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are most likely to cross the highway.  Over the preceding decade, grizzly bears have lost two hours of suitable crossing opportunity and will, should observed growth rates and traffic continue, lose an additional three hours within five years

The Effects of Race, Place, Class, and Gender on Instructional Strategies in Kentucky\u27s Seventh Grade Science Classes: Individual and School Level Analyses

This study explored the relationship of student demographics to teaching method in Kentucky’s seventh grade science classrooms for 1997-98, based on performance assessment data (student level N = 21,499; school level N = 264). Students’ perceptions of seven instructional strategies from the KIRIS student questionnaires were placed into three groups: traditional, inquiry-based, and computer. At the student level, these strategies were regressed on race, gender, free/reduced lunch, urbanity of the district, Appalachian status, and Educational Service Region. At the school level, the three approaches were regressed on aggregate school data for these same variables. Findings indicated that demographic factors do affect teachers’ instructional strategies. Student-level results demonstrated numerous small but statistically significant influences on all three instructional approaches. Nearly all demographic effects disappeared when examined at the school level. The strongest finding was that schools with higher percentages of free/reduced lunch students reported more computer usage. Less computer use was reported for schools with more female students. Findings are discussed in light of science instruction, computers, and technological development for the rural south

Waiting for the better reward: Comparison of delay of gratification in young children across two cultures.

Delay of gratification-a form of self-control-is the ability to forsake immediately available rewards in order to obtain larger-valued outcomes in future, which develops throughout the pre-school years. The majority of previous research in this area has been conducted with Western populations, therefore knowledge of Eastern children's performance is scarcer. Here, utilising on a recently published dataset of British children (n = 61), we further tested delay of gratification in 3 to 5-year-old Chinese children (n = 75) using Bramlett et al.'s (2012) delay choice paradigm. The paradigm was previously used in non-human primates and it featured a mechanized rotating tray that sequentially moves rewards within reach. Additionally, we administered 3 inhibitory control tasks and 1 standardised delay choice task to Chinese pre-schoolers (British children were not tested). We aimed to investigate the influence of culture, reward type and reward visibility on pre-schoolers' ability to delay gratification. We found significant age-related improvements in delay of gratification ability in both countries and children performed better when presented with rewards varying in quality than quantity. Consistent with previous cross-cultural literature, Chinese children showed better overall performance than their British peers when reward visibility was manipulated (though reward visibility itself had no significant effect on performance). There were significant correlations in Chinese children's performance in Bramlett et al.'s (2012) delay choice paradigm and performance in some (though not all tested) inhibitory control tasks. We discuss these results in relation to task demands and the broader social orientation of self-control. We concluded that the intuitive comparative assessment of self-control task taps into children's delay of gratification ability. Our results emphasize the importance of testing for socio-cultural influences on children's cognitive development

Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States

Spatially explicit livestock disease models require demographic data for individual farms or premises. In the U.S., demographic data are only available aggregated at county or coarser scales, so disease models must rely on assumptions about how individual premises are distributed within counties. Here, we addressed the importance of realistic assumptions for this purpose. We compared modeling of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks using simple randomization of locations to premises configurations predicted by the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS), which infers location based on features such as topography, land-cover, climate, and roads. We focused on three premises-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed models available from the literature, all using the same kernel approach but with different parameterizations and functional forms. By computing the basic reproductive number of the infection (R0) for both FLAPS and randomized configurations, we investigated how spatial locations and clustering of premises affects outbreak predictions. Further, we performed stochastic simulations to evaluate if identified differences were consistent for later stages of an outbreak. Using Ripley's K to quantify clustering, we found that FLAPS configurations were substantially more clustered at the scales relevant for the implemented models, leading to a higher frequency of nearby premises compared to randomized configurations. As a result, R0 was typically higher in FLAPS configurations, and the simulation study corroborated the pattern for later stages of outbreaks. Further, both R0 and simulations exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in terms of differences between configurations. Thus, using realistic assumptions when de-aggregating locations based on available data can have a pronounced effect on epidemiological predictions, affecting if, where, and to what extent FMD may invade the population. We conclude that methods such as FLAPS should be preferred over randomization approaches

Evidence of an upper mantle seismic anomaly opposing the Cocos slab beneath the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico

Subduction of the Cocos plate beneath southern Mexico is characterized by several unusual features, such as a discontinuous volcanic arc, unusual arc chemistry, and anomalously low topography of Tehuantepec Isthmus. Recent seismic images from both receiver functions and seismic tomography suggest that there may be an additional, opposing structure dipping to the southwest from the Gulf of Mexico, and these images have been previously explained by a southwest-dipping slab. However, standard models of the Caribbean tectonic history do not support this interpretation. To better define the Cocos slab's structure and the possible existence of a structure dipping in the opposite direction, dense seismic data across southern Mexico are used to form high-resolution seismic images, based on the 2-D generalized radon transform method, and to relocate regional earthquakes. Our images show the Cocos plate dipping at 30° to the northeast encounters the anomaly that is dipping in the opposite sense at ∼150 km depth. Relocated seismicity clearly delineates a Wadati-Benioff zone that marks the subducting Cocos plate. A cluster of seismicity also appears at ∼150 km depth which may be related to the subduction of the Tehuantepec ridge and/or to the imaged seismic structure with opposite polarity

Discovery of Bright Galactic R Coronae Borealis and DY Persei Variables: Rare Gems Mined from ACVS

We present the results of a machine-learning (ML) based search for new R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars and DY Persei-like stars (DYPers) in the Galaxy using cataloged light curves from the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) Catalog of Variable Stars (ACVS). RCB stars - a rare class of hydrogen-deficient carbon-rich supergiants - are of great interest owing to the insights they can provide on the late stages of stellar evolution. DYPers are possibly the low-temperature, low-luminosity analogs to the RCB phenomenon, though additional examples are needed to fully establish this connection. While RCB stars and DYPers are traditionally identified by epochs of extreme dimming that occur without regularity, the ML search framework more fully captures the richness and diversity of their photometric behavior. We demonstrate that our ML method can use newly discovered RCB stars to identify additional candidates within the same data set. Our search yields 15 candidates that we consider likely RCB stars/DYPers: new spectroscopic observations confirm that four of these candidates are RCB stars and four are DYPers. Our discovery of four new DYPers increases the number of known Galactic DYPers from two to six; noteworthy is that one of the new DYPers has a measured parallax and is m ~ 7 mag, making it the brightest known DYPer to date. Future observations of these new DYPers should prove instrumental in establishing the RCB connection. We consider these results, derived from a machine-learned probabilistic classification catalog, as an important proof-of-concept for the efficient discovery of rare sources with time-domain surveys.Comment: 18 pages, 2 new figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others

Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Domestic swine production in the United States is a critical economic and food security industry, yet there is currently no large-scale quantitative assessment of swine shipments available to support risk assessments. In this study, we provide a national-level characterization of the swine industry by quantifying the demographic (i.e. age, sex) patterns, spatio-temporal patterns, and the production diversity within swine shipments. We characterize annual networks of swine shipments using a 30% stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), which are required for the interstate movement of agricultural animals. We used ICVIs in 2010 and 2011 from eight states that represent 36% of swine operations and 63% of the U.S. swine industry. Our analyses reflect an integrated and spatially structured industry with high levels of spatial heterogeneity. Most shipments carried young swine for feeding or breeding purposes and carried a median of 330 head (range: 1–6,500). Geographically, most shipments went to and were shipped from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This work, therefore, suggests that although the swine industry is variable in terms of its size and type of swine, counties in states historically known for breeding and feeding operations are consistently more central to the shipment network

Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Domestic swine production in the United States is a critical economic and food security industry, yet there is currently no large-scale quantitative assessment of swine shipments available to support risk assessments. In this study, we provide a national-level characterization of the swine industry by quantifying the demographic (i.e. age, sex) patterns, spatio-temporal patterns, and the production diversity within swine shipments. We characterize annual networks of swine shipments using a 30% stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), which are required for the interstate movement of agricultural animals. We used ICVIs in 2010 and 2011 from eight states that represent 36% of swine operations and 63% of the U.S. swine industry. Our analyses reflect an integrated and spatially structured industry with high levels of spatial heterogeneity. Most shipments carried young swine for feeding or breeding purposes and carried a median of 330 head (range: 1–6,500). Geographically, most shipments went to and were shipped from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This work, therefore, suggests that although the swine industry is variable in terms of its size and type of swine, counties in states historically known for breeding and feeding operations are consistently more central to the shipment network