Spreading and accumulation of river-borne sediments in the coastal ocean after the environmental disaster at the Doce River in Brazil

This study is focused on the fate of a large volume of mine slurry discharged from the Doce River (DR) to the coastal ocean after the worst environmental disaster in Brazilian which occurred in November 2015. We used Eulerian (ROMS) and Lagrangian (STRiPE) numerical models, as well as satellite remote sensing data, to study the spreading and seafloor accumulation of fine river-borne sediments during the initial six months following the disaster. We show that the regions of intense sediment accumulation were determined by spreading patterns of the surface-advected DR plume. The river discharge rate governed the plume surface area, while its position depended on local wind forcing conditions. The spreading of sediments carried by the DR plume was dominated by southward transport caused by prevailing upwelling-favorable northeasterly winds during the study period. Under high discharge conditions, river-borne sediments were transported over 100 km southward from the DR mouth and reached the outer shelf. In contrast, sediments were arrested near the mouth during drought periods and remained on the inner shelf. As a result, fine river-borne sediments accumulated on the seafloor, mainly in the large shallow shelf area southward from the DR mouth. Conversely, only a small fraction of residue was deposited northward. Thus, the Environmental Protection Area (EPA) of Costa das Algas, located 40 km southward from the DR, potentially exhibited more susceptibility to sediment arrival. On the other hand, their influence on Abrolhos Marine National Park, located 200 km northeastward from the DR mouth, was presumably minimal

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.FAPESP Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo[07/54138-2