SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF THE ENERGY RESOURCES OF SERBIA

Energetics has been and remained the key factor of economic changes and economic development to date. If the energy sector is stable, modern, and organized in a quality manner, it also implies welfare for the economy as a whole. Changes in the significance and use of energy in the economy require the professional management of energy development. Irrespective of modern technology and the key discoveries in energy transformation and concentration, it has not declined in significance. On the contrary, energy is the basis of the human activity. On the other hand, the present structure of the primary sources of energy at the global level cannot follow the trend of increasing demand for energy. The limited reserves of the non-renewable sources of energy, especially of crude oil, require our turning towards the renewable sources of energy. The energy crisis of today is not only an expression of the bad condition of natural sources, but a consequence of the global policy for the exploitation of the existing sources of energy. The current condition of energy resources is a consequence of a monopolistic policy for big business and the New World Order founded on it. According to the assessments of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a further increase in primary energy consumption is expected in the period to come. Because of that, it is necessary to strategically plan the development of the energy sector both from the general developmental, technological-economic, and social-ecological points of view. The fact that Serbia has a relatively high energy consumption growth rate, that it is poorer in primary energy reserves in comparison with the world average, refers us yet more to the rational use of the existing reserves of energy and also to the production of energy from renewable sources: solar, the energy of the wind, geothermal, biomass, the energy of the tide and the waves of seas and oceans, and so on. The paper addresses the issues in the field of the sustainable development of energetics, safety and energy efficiency, as well as a future development of energetics in Serbia based on the renewable sources of energy. The economic effects of the production of energy from renewable sources have also been analyzed

Models of regression of the scope of sown areas and purchase prices of oil crops in Serbia

This paper examines the interdependency between the movements of the level of market (purchase) prices and sowed areas under sunflower, soya, and oilseed rape, i.e. between the relative prices of these oil crops and predominant crop-husbandry products (wheat and/or corn), on the one hand, and the areas to be allocated for oil crops cultures. The models of the regression of the scope of sowed areas and purchase prices of oil crops, i.e. the interdependency of these phenomena, are determined by means of reliable statistical methods (the standard error of regression, the coefficient of the trend variation and the determination coefficient). At the same time, the testing of the series has been carried out by means of the mathematical models of functions, whereas the significance of the generated regression dependencies has been estimated by means of the t-test

Regionalna obeležja tržišne proizvodnje šećerne repe i suncokreta u Srbiji

The paper analyzes the trends in the development of industrial crop production in the case of sugar beet and sunflower in Serbia from 1976 to 2013. Grouping of regions (4 regions without Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija) and districts (25 districts) in Serbia in 2013, according to the characteristics of land capacity, production of sugar beet and sunflower and level of development, was carried out by cluster analysis. Based on the median value of the important characteristics of available land capacity, production volume and economic development in municipalities, I-distance method were ranked districts in Serbia from 1 to 25. Similarities between the sugar beet and sunflower production regions in Serbia were determined by the method of complete-linkage clustering, and the results were presented in the dendrogram. According to data for 2013 it was found that 99.8% of sugar beet production and 93.9% of sunflower production in Serbia comes from the Vojvodina region. The average yields per hectare for analyzed crops in the areas of the Vojvodina region, on average, were by up to 10% higher compared to the yields in Serbia. According to the characteristics of land capacity and production, areas of the Vojvodina region belong to the highest rank 1-7, while according to the characteristics of the development level, these areas belong to rank 2-13.U radu su analizirane tendencije u razvoju proizvodnje industrijskog bilja, na primeru šećerne repe i suncokreta u Srbiji od 1976. do 2013. godine. Grupisanje regiona (4 regiona, bez KiM) i oblasti (25 oblasti) u Srbiji za 2013. godinu, prema obeležjima zemljišnih kapaciteta, proizvodnje šećerne repe i suncokreta i nivoa razvijenosti, izvršeno je primenom klaster analize. Na osnovu medijalne vrednosti važnijih obeležja raspoloživih zemljišnih kapaciteta, obima proizvodnje i privredne razvijenosti po opštinama, metodom I-odstojanja izvršeno je rangiranje oblasti u Srbiji od 1-25. Sličnosti oblasti proizvodnje šećerne repe i suncokreta u Srbiji predstavljene su metodom kompletnog povezivanja hijarhijske klaster analize, a rezultati su predstavljeni dendrogramom. Prema podacima za 2013. godinu, utvrđeno je da 99,8% proizvodnje šećerne repe i 93,9% proizvodnje suncokreta Srbije potiče iz Regiona Vojvidine. Prosečni prinosi po ha analiziranih biljnih kultura u oblastima Regiona Vojvodine u proseku su veći do 10% u odnosu na prinose u Srbiji. Prema obeležijima zemljišnih kapaciteta i proizvodnje, oblasti Regiona Vojvodine pripadaju najvišem rangu 1-7, dok prema obeležijima nivoa razvijenosti ove oblasti pripadaju rangu 2-13

Agrarni potencijali u reindustrijalizaciji Srbije - potrebe i mogućnosti revitalizacije industrije agrarnih inputa

After transitional debacles and failures, structural degradation and recession, reindustrialization is imposed as a crucial stage in the economic development of Serbia. The production-market potentials of the agro-complex (as a complex economic subsystem of pre-farm, farm and post-farm activities) and its place in the national economy open the significant possibilities of the revitalization of the industries of agrarian inputs (agricultural machines and equipment, mineral fertilizers and pesticides). Considering the structural significance of the pre-farm agrarian sector in the Serbian economy, this paper analyzes the fundamental features of production and the foreign-trade exchange, especially the dynamics and changes in the volume and structure of production and the import of agrarian inputs. On that basis, through a target comparative analysis of multi-year data series (1986-2011), the paper explores the trends of production and employment, identifies transitional distortions and the growing import dependence of the Serbian economy and the agro-complex in particular, considers the agrarian potentials in a possible reindustrialization primarily via the revitalization of the industry of agrarian inputs, and highlights a special phenomenon of the opportunity costs of the Serbian agrarian development.Nakon tranzicionih neuspeha i promašaja, strukturne degradacije i recesije, reindustrijalizacija se nameće kao nužna etapa u privrednom razvoju Srbije. Proizvodno- tržišni potencijali agrokompleksa (kao složenog privrednog subsistema predfarmskih, farmskih i postfarmskih delatnosti) i njegovo mesto u nacionalnoj ekonomiji, otvara značajne mogućnosti revitalizacije industrija agrarnih inputa (poljoprivrednih mašina i opreme, mineralnih đubriva i pesticida). Sagledavajući strukturni značajpredfarmskog agrarnog sektora u srpskoj ekonomiji, u radu se analiziraju osnovna obeležja proizvodnje i spoljnotrgovinske razmene, posebno dinamika ipromene obima i strukture proizvodnje i uvoza agrarnih inputa. Na toj osnovi se, ciljnom komparativnom analizom višegodišnjih serija podataka (1986-2011), u radu se istražuju trendovi proizvodnje i zaposlenosti, identifikuje uvozna zavisnost, sagledavaju agrarni potencijali u mogućoj reindustrijalizaciji i ukazuje na poseban fenomen oportunitetnih troškova agrarnog razvoja Srbije

MODELI REGRESIJE RASPROSTRANJENOSTI ZASIJANIH POVRŠINA I CIJENA OTKUPA ULJANIH KULTURA U SRBIJI

This paper examines the interdependency between the movements of the level of market (purchase) prices and sowed areas under sunflower, soya, and oilseed rape, i.e. between the relative prices of these oil crops and predominant crop-husbandry products (wheat and/or corn), on the one hand, and the areas to be allocated for oil crops cultures. The models of the regression of the scope of sowed areas and purchase prices of oil crops, i.e. the interdependency of these phenomena, are determined by means of reliable statistical methods (the standard error of regression, the coefficient of the trend variation and the determination coefficient). At the same time, the testing of the series has been carried out by means of the mathematical models of functions, whereas the significance of the generated regression dependencies has been estimated by means of the t-test.Ovaj rad istražuje međuovisnost kretanja tržišnih (otkupnih) cijena i površina zasijanih suncokretom, sojom i uljanom repicom, odnosno, ovisnost između relativnih cijena ovih uljanih kultura i prevladavajućih poljoprivrednih proizvoda (pšenice i/ili kukuruza) s jedne strane, i površina koje treba dodijeliti uljanim kulturama. Modeli regresije raširenosti zasijanih površina i cijena otkupa uljanih kultura, odnosno međuovisnost ovih pojava, određuje se pomoću pouzdanih statističkih metoda (standardnom greškom regresije, koeficijentom varijacije trenda i koeficijentom determinacije). Istovremeno, testiranje serije je izvedeno pomoću matematičkih modela funkcija, dok je značaj generiranih regresijskih ovisnosti procijenjen pomoću t-testa

Tržište kao 'nevidljiva ruka' ili državni intervencionizam kao 'vidljiva ruka' ekonomske politike

This paper presents two mutually opposed aspects of the market as a regulatory mechanism in the economy. From the aspect of entrepreneurship, the free operation of 'invisible hand' encourage the successful, but limits and neutralizes unsuccessful, and from the aspect of social equality, through the market, legally deepens the gap between rich and poor. It was pointed out that the resolution of decades of controversy of the market as a regulatory mechanism leads to the balanced operation of markets and social equality criteria, which is the one of the characteristics of models of economic systems of developed countries in Europe and the EU. As a way to resolve market controversies, transition countries have adopted the model of 'reformed welfare society'. The results of transition in Central and Southeastern European countries are different and depending on the closeness of their model of a market economy with developed European countries. The economic effects of the transition were monitored in two groups of countries that became full members and third, those which have not yet. Countries from the first and second group that have became full members of the EU in 2004, according to selected indicators, in 2003 reached or surpassed the pre-transition level of development. From the third group of countries that have not yet joined the EU, Croatia has the best value for most indicators. Measured by purchasing power parity Croatia reached 50% of GDP in EU-25. Unfortunately, analyzed indicators were much lower in Serbia. The value of GDP reached only 30% of the EU-25, and FDI/capita 1119 euros, especially so called 'Green field' investments, are at the level of 24.4% of Croats. Analyzed indicators in the third group of countries are well below that level.U radu su sagledana dva međusobno suprostavljena aspekta tržišta kao regulatornog mehanizma u privredi. Sa aspekta preduzetništva, slobodno delovanje 'nevidljive ruke' podstiče uspešne, a ograničava i neutrališe neuspešne, dok sa aspekta socijalne jednakosti, preko tržišta se legalno produbljuje jaz između bogatih i siromašnih. Rešavanje višedecenijskih kontroverzi tržišta kao regulatornog mehanizma vodiće ka smanjenju socijalne nejednakosti, što je jedna od karakteristika modela privrednih sistema razvijenih zemalja Evrope, odnosno EU. Kao put za rešavanje kontroverzi tržišta, zemlje u tranziciji su prihvatile model 'reformisanog društva blagostanja'. Rezultati tranzicije u zemljama Centralne i Jugoistočne Evrope su različiti i u zavisnosti su od njihove bliskosti sa modelom tržišne privrede razvijenih evropskih zemalja. Ekonomski efekti tranzicije su praćeni kod dve grupe zemalja koje su postale punopravne članice i treće, onih koje to još nisu. Zemlje iz prve i druge grupe koje su postale punopravne članice EU 2004. godine, su prema izabranim indikatorima 2003. godine dostigle ili prestigle predtranzicijski nivo razvoja. Od zemalja iz treće grupe koje još nisu postale članice EU, Hrvatska ima najbolje vrednosti kod većine pokazatelja. Mereno paritetom kupovne moći dostigla je 50% vrednosti BDP EU-25. Nažalost, analizirani indikatori su kod Srbije znatno niži. Vrednost BDP je dostigla samo 30% EU-25, a SDI/stanovniku od 1.119 evra, posebno tzv. 'green field' investicije, su na nivou od 24,4% hrvatskih. Analizirani pokazatelji zemalja iz treće grupe su znatno ispod tog nivoa

Svetska finansijska kriza i njene posledice na privredu Srbije

This paper presents the analysis of occurrence of financial crises in the United States, its spread to the real sector and other countries, as a result of the interconnection of economies in the globalization process. 'American dream' that every family has owned the house, which is supported by the favorable state mortgage loans, has led to a rapid jump in prices and higher profits in real estate business. Inclusion of subprimary mortgage market, which approved mortgage loans to low credit customers, increased the number of those who can not settle mortgage obligations in time. On the one hand, by activating the mortgage, in a short time there was found a large number of properties on offer, and on the other hand, due to reduced credit potential of banks due to delays in payments, property prices are falling dramatically. Due to higher mortgage than the market value of property, the banks got into insolvency, which is a mass phenomenon turned into a financial crisis. The financial crisis in the U.S., which grew into a crisis of the real sector, time-delayed half a year, transferred to the Serbian economy. The global financial crisis has just further encouraged and enabled to quickly emerge to the surface of the structural abnormalities, occurred well before and during the process of transition in Serbian economy.U radu je izvršena analiza nastanka finansijske krize u SAD, njeno širenje na realni sektor i druge zemlje, kao posledica međusobne povezanosti ekonomija u procesima globalizacije. 'Američki san' da svaka porodica ima kuću u vlasništvu, koji je podržan od strane države povoljnim hipotekarnim kreditima, doveo je do brzog skoka cena nekretnina i visokog profita u poslovima sa nekretninama. Uključivanjem subprimarnog hipotekarnog tržišta koje je odobravalo hipotekarne kredite klijentima male kreditne sposobnosti, povećalo je broj onih koji ne mogu na vreme da izmire dospele hipotekarne obaveze. Na jednoj strani, aktiviranjem hipoteka, u ponudi se, u kratkom roku našao veliki broj nekretnina, a na drugoj strani, zbog smanjenog kreditnog potencijala banaka usled kašnjenja sa otplatama dospelih rata kredita, cene nekretnina drastično padaju. Zbog veće hipotekarne od tržišne vrednosti nekretnina, banke su zapale u nelikvidnost, koja se kao masovna pojava pretvorila u finansijsku krizu. Finansijska kriza u SAD, koja je prerasla u krizu realnog sektora, vremenski odložena pola godine, prenela se i na privredu Srbije. Svetska finansijska kriza samo je dodatno podstakla i omogućila da na površinu brže isplivaju strukturni poremećaji nastali mnogo pre i tokom procesa tranzicije u privredi Srbije

Uzajamnost nivoa privredne razvijenosti i rezultata tranzicije

In this paper is given analysis of reciprocity between level of development of economy and results of transition on example of ex-SFRY countries in period from 1945 until 2008. Analysed period is divided in three sub-periods. First sub-period of Kingdom of Yugoslavia is marked with low level of economic growth, just over the rate of natural increase of number of inhabitants and domination of foreign capital in key areas of economy. In first sub-period, SFRY achieved high rates of economy grow, approximately the same level in all republics, with increased country obligations abroad and with hint of economic crises that arise in 1990's. Second sub-period marked disintegration of SFRY, civil war on area of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, negative rate of economic growth in first and mild economic recovery in second half of 1990's. However, on the contrary of ex- SFRY countries, they managed to fulfill full economic stability and high rates of economic growth. Today those countries are members of European Union. Period after 2000 (Third fourth sub-period) is marked with high rates of economic growth in almost all ex-SFRY countries, along with stabilisation of other indicators and adjustment with criteria from Mastricht for EU accession. Serbia has achieved good results in this sub-period, comparing to previous, but they are still lower from those achieved at the beginning of 1990's. .U radu je data analiza uzajamnosti nivoa privredne razvijenosti i rezultate tranzicije na primeru zemalja bivše SFRJ u periodu od 1945. do 2008. godine. Analizirani period podeljen je u tri podperioda. U prvom podperiodu, SFRJ je ostvarila visoke stope privrednog rasta, približno iste u svim republikama, uz povećano zaduživanje zemlje u inostranstvu i nagoveštaj krize privrede koja je usledila tokom devedesetih godina prošloga stoleća. Drugi podperiod obeležio je raspad SFRJ, građanski rast na prostoru Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine, negativna stopa privrednog rasta u prvoj i blagi privredni oporavak u drugoj polovini devedesetih godina. Rezultati pokazuju da su sve istočnoevropske zemlje na početku procesa tranzicije zabeležile negativne stope privrednog rasta. Međutim, one su za razliku od zemalja bivše SFRJ, već polovinom devedesetih godina ostvarile punu makroekonomsku stabilnost privrede i relativno visoke stope privrednog rasta. Danas su one punopravne članice EU. Period posle 2000. godine (treći podperiod) obeležen je relativno visokim stopama privrednog rasta kod skoro svih zemalja bivše SFRJ, stabilizovanjem ostalih pokazatelja makroekonomskog razvoja i usaglašavanjem sa kriterijumima iz Mastrihta za priključenje EU. Srbija je u ovom podperiodu, u odnosu na prethodni postigla dobre rezultate, ali su oni još uvek niži od onih sa početka devedesetih godina dvadesetog veka.

Tržište i asortiman proizvoda od maline u svetu i Republici Srbiji

This paper analyses raspberry market dynamics in the world; importance and possibilities for getting raspberry products, such as juices, concentrates, syrups, pastes and raspberry juice powder, in the higher processing stages. Considerably higher economic effects (market prices even higher than 60 EUR per kg) could be reached if these products are offered in the internal market, and especially if these products are exported. This is the reason why the overall supply of these products, aimed at winning the adequate place in the internal market as well as in the external market, despite the ever increasing competition with regard to the quantity and quality, should be derived from the production/objects which are working in accordance with HACCP standards, and it should have a recognizable trade mark and an original packaging, as a symbol of its origin and quality. .Poslednjih desetak godina u svetu je zabeležen dinamičan rast proizvodnje maline. U ukupnom svetskom prometu maline, sveža malina učestvuje sa oko 8,5%. U strukturi izvoza maline iz Republike Srbije dominira smrznuta malina sa preko 90%. Pored nje u izvozu se još pojavljuje sveža malina i koncentrisani sok od maline. Na svetskom tržištu je širi asortiman proizvoda od maline. U visoko razvijenim zemljama, velikim konzumentima ovog proizvoda, u ponudi se javlja u različitim oblicima: smrznuta, koncentrovana, sušena, želirana ili sokovi od maline. Pored toga, velike količine maline u svetu se na tradicionalan način koriste za proizvodnju džemova, kompota, slatka, alkoholnih pića i drugih specijaliteta sa nacionalnim obeležjima. U radu je analizirano svetsko tržište i asortiman proizvoda od maline i njihova izvozna/uvozna cena u periodu 1995-2004. godina. Posebno su obrađene regionalne destinacije izvoza maline i prerađevina od maline iz Republike Srbije. Imajući u vidu navedeno, u radu se razmatraju značaj dobijanja i promet proizvoda od maline viših faza prerade, kao što su sokovi, koncentrati, sirupi, želirani proizvodi i dr. Ponudom ovih proizvoda na domaćem tržištu, a naročito izvozom, mogu se postići znatno viši ekonomski efekti (cene i preko 60 eura/kg). Zato ukupna ponuda ovih proizvoda, u borbi za odgovarajuće mesto na domaćem i u sve oštrijoj konkurenciji obima i kvaliteta na svetskom tržištu, treba da potiče iz proizvodnje/objekata koji ispunjavaju standarde HACCP, da bude prepoznatljive robne marke i originalnog pakovanja, kao simbola porekla i kvaliteta.

Globalno tržište povrća

The aim of the study was to analyze from the regional and comparative standpoints some major indices of the world market and trade of vegetables, essential in the population diet as the obligatory and irreplaceable group of commodities. Special reference was given to trends, i.e. output, dynamics and structure of production, trade and consumption of the products analyzed. In addition, regions, i.e. countries known to be the largest producers but no less importers and exporters of vegetables were determined. Significant differences were registered between regions which may be attributed to a large number of natural, social and economic factors. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods of the market were used in the analysis of the relationship and the level of impact of the factors influencing changes and trends of the incidences investigated.U radu je data regionalno-komparativna analiza važnijih pokazatelja svetskog tržišta i prometa povrća, kao izuzetno značajne i u ishrani stanovništva neizostavne i nezamenljive prehrambene grupe proizvoda. Posebno su izučene tendencije, odnosno obim, dinamika i struktura proizvodnje, prometa i potrošnje svih analiziranih proizvoda. Osim toga, definisani su regioni, odnosno zemlje najveći proizvođači i najveći izvoznici i uvoznici povrća. Utvrđeno je da kod ispitivanih pojava postoje vrlo značajne regionalne razlike i da su one posledica brojnih prirodnih, društvenih i privrednih činilaca. Shodno ovome, u sagledavanju karaktera odnosa i stepena uticaja navedenih činilaca na promene i pravce kretanja predmetnih pojava, korišćene su kvantitativne i kvalitativne metode istraživanja tržišta