The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis

I study how shocks in cohort-level early life conditions, as represented by deviations from trend in mortality before age 5, affect later mortality. I use data for six European countries and find that shocks that increase infant mortality decrease later life expectancy between ages 5-30. The effect is strong for England and Wales but small or insignificant for other countries. Shocks that increase mortality at ages 1-5 increase life expectancy between ages 5-30 and compress the mortality distribution. For both shocks the effects are weak at older ages. These results suggest that early life conditions have a transitory effect and potentially only little influence on old-age mortality.cohort effects, early life conditions, mortality

Probabilistic forecasting using stochastic diffusion models, with applications to cohort processes of marriage and fertility

We study prediction and error propagation in Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models for innovation diffusion. We develop a unifying framework in which the models are linearized with respect to cohort age and predictions are derived from the underlying linear process. We develop and compare methods for deriving the predictions and show how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate prediction uncertainty for a wide class of underlying linear processes. For an important special case, random walk with, we develop an analytic prediction variance estimator. Both the Monte Carlo method and the analytic variance estimator allow the forecasters to make precise the level of within-model prediction uncertainty in innovation diffusion models. Empirical applications to first births, first marriages and cumulative fertility illustrate the usefulness of these methods.

Reproductive behavior following evacuation to foster care during World War II

<b>Background</b>: Family disruption and separation form parents during childhood may have long-lasting effects on the child. Previous literature documents associations between separation from parents and cognitive ability, educational attainment, and health, but little is known about effects on subsequent reproductive behavior. <b>Objective</b>: We evaluate the associations between unaccompanied evacuation to foster care and subsequent marriage and fertility behavior by comparing Finnish children who were evacuated to Swedish foster families during World War II to their non-evacuated siblings. <b>Methods</b>: In total, some 49,000 children were evacuated for a period ranging from months to years. We analyze a nationally representative sample of 2,009 evacuees born in 1933-1944 by combining data collected from war time government records with 1950 and 1971 censuses and 1971-2011 population registers. <b>Results</b>: Comparison of evacuated and nonevacuated same-sex siblings suggests no associations between evacuation and the probability of ever marrying, timing of first birth, and completed family size, although some associations are found in na¨ıve means comparisons. This difference in results across models is suggestive of negative selection of evacuee families. <b>Conclusions</b>: We do not find consistent evidence of any causal effect of family disruption on family formation and reproductive behavior. The results are sensitive to controlling for unobserved selection and suggest that some of the adverse outcomes documented in earlier literature could change if selection was accounted for

Maternal age and offspring health and health behaviours in late adolescence in Sweden

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Children’s Sex and the Happiness of Parents

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Maternal age and offspring health and health behaviours in late adolescence in Sweden

In this study we investigate the relationship between maternal age at the time of birth and a variety of health behaviours and measures of health amongst young adults in contemporary Sweden. Previous research has shown that those born to younger and older mothers tend to have worse perinatal outcomes, and worse health in middle- and later adulthood. However, previous work has not examined health in early adulthood, and no studies have explored whether maternal age is related to health behaviours. Using survey data on 1,236 19-year olds born in Sweden in 1990, we find that those born to older mothers have lower self-rated health, are more likely to smoke, more likely to drink alcohol regularly, and less likely to exercise regularly. We discuss potential explanations for these findings, such as older parents exerting lower social control due to greater levels of workplace responsibilities and time demands, long-term consequences of the poor peri-natal outcomes of those born to older mothers, as well as the potential role of parental health behaviours. Our findings suggest that health behaviours may play an important mediating role in explaining the worse long-term health of those born to younger and older mothers

Evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S.

Background: During the 1920s and early 1930s, U.S. fertility declined overall but with large regional variations. Changes in foreign born populations explain only part of this. Differences in public health and poverty relief programs may further help explain these declines because of their potential impact on fertility determinants, in particular on breastfeeding and child mortality. Objective: We investigate whether public health investments in child health (conservation of child life programs) and poverty relief (outdoor care of poor or charity for children and mothers) affected fertility for U.S. cities over 100,000 persons between 1923 and 1932. Methods: We analyze data covering 64 cities between 1923-1932 that include birth information from the U.S. Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics volumes and city financial information from the Financial Statistics of Cities volumes. Time and city fixed-effects models are used to identify the impact of public investments on fertility. Results: Fixed effects estimates indicating the conservation of child life programs explain about 10 percent of the fertility change between 1923 and 1932. Outdoor care of poor did not seem to be related to fertility. Investments in charity for children and mothers were associated with fertility increases, possibly because poorer areas experienced relative increases in both higher fertility and charitable spending. Conclusions: Public spending on child health was strongly related to decreasing fertility in the U.S. during the 1920s, possibly because of increased breastfeeding and decreased child mortality. This leads to a better understanding of the 1920s fertility decline and highlights how public policy may affect fertility

Parental well-being surrounding first birth as a determinant of further parity progression

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Cohort Trends in Working Life Expectancies at Age 50 in the United States : A Register-Based Study Using Social Security Administration Data

Objectives: Little is known about the length of working life, even though it is a key indicator for policy-makers. In this paper, we study how the length of working life at age 50 has developed in the United States from a cohort perspective. Methods: We use a large longitudinal sample of U.S. Social Security register data that covers close to 1.7 million individuals of the cohorts born from 1920 to 1965. For all of these cohorts, we study the employment trajectories and working life expectancy (WLE) at age 50 by gender and nativity (native-born/foreign-born). For the cohorts with employment trajectories that are only incompletely observed, we borrow information from older cohorts to predict their WLE. Results: The length of working life has been increasing for the native-born males and females, and the younger cohorts worked longer than the older cohorts. However, WLE might soon peak, and then stall. The gap in WLE between the nativeborn and the foreign-born has increased over time, although latter group might be able to catch up in the coming years. Discussion: Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers.Peer reviewe

Well-being of children born after medically assisted reproduction

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