Оптимизация объемов производства и продажи продукции на рынке с использованием маркетинга в сети Интернет( на примере ОАО«Калинковичский мясокомбинат»)

Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265-420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012-2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective of this paper is to review historical and current epidemiology of dengue worldwide and, additionally, reflect on some potential reasons for expansion of dengue into the future

Estimating disease transmission in a closed population under repeated testing

The paper presents a novel statistical framework for COVID-19 transmission monitoring and control, which was developed and deployed at The Ohio State University (OSU) main campus in Columbus during the Autumn term of 2020. Our approach effectively handles prevalence data with interval censoring and explicitly incorporates changes in transmission dynamics and human behavior. To illustrate the methodology’s usefulness, we apply it to both synthetic and actual student SARS-CoV-2 testing data collected at the OSU Columbus campus in late 2020

Climate Services For Infectious Disease Control: A Nexus Between Public Health Preparedness And Sustainable Development, Lessons Learned From Long-Term Multi-Site Time-Series Analysis Of Dengue Fever In Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Climate services provide valuable information for making actionable, data-driven decisions to protect public health in a myriad of manners. There is mounting global evidence of the looming threat climate change poses to human health, including the variability and intensity of infectious disease outbreaks in Vietnam and other low-resource and developing areas. In light of the Sustainable Development Goals, this study aimed to examine the utility of spatial and time-series analysis, to inform public health preparedness strategies for sustainable urban development, in terms of dengue epidemiology, surveillance, control, and early warnings. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Nearly 40 years of spatial and temporal (times-series) dataset of meteorological records, including rainfall, temperature, and humidity (among others) which can be predictors of dengue were assembled for all provinces of Vietnam. This dataset was associated with case data reported to General Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health of Vietnam, during the same period. Time series of climate and disease variables were analyzed for trend and changing pattern over time. The time-series statistical analysis method sought to identify spatial (when possible) and temporal trend, seasonality, cyclical pattern of disease, and to discover anomalous outbreak events, which departed from expected epidemiological pattern, and corresponding meteorological phenomena, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). RESULTS: Analysis yielded largely converged findings with other locations in South East Asia for larger outbreak years and events such as ENSO. Seasonality, trend, and cycle in many provinces were persistent throughout the dataset, indicating strong potential for climate services to be used in dengue early warnings. CONCLUSION: Public health practitioners, having adequate tools for dengue control available, must plan and budget vector control and patient treatment efforts well in advance of large scale dengue epidemics to curb such events with overall morbidity and mortality. Urban and sustainable development in Vietnam might benefit from evidence linking climate change and ill-health events spatially and temporally in future planning. Long term analysis of dengue case data and meteorological records, provided a cases study evidence for emerging opportunities that on how refined climate services, could contribute to protection of public health. Keywords: dengue, Vietnam, climate change, time-series analysis, climate servic

Vikten av importerade infektioner : kan globala förändringar förklara Dengue utbrott?

Background Dengue is a significant problem of international health concern. According to the World Health Organization in 2012, globally, dengue is “the most important mosquito borne viral disease” with incidence 30 higher than it had been 50 years ago. While most of the burden of disease associated with dengue is located in areas with a tropical and sub-tropical climate, increasing evidence suggests temperate areas are also at risk. Considering the recent introduction of relevant mosquito vectors into Southern Europe, and increasing numbers of imported dengue via travelers, Europe and other temperate areas may be increasingly at risk for dengue emergence, establishment and local transmission in the foreseeable future. Methods Recent dengue emergence in Madeira and reemergence in Tokyo underline the hypothesis that passenger air-travel can be an important conduit for the importation of vector-borne disease leading to emergence in naïve areas climatically suitable for dengue transmission, including parts of Europe. Combining information on travel with virus genetic similarity was useful in discerning likely pathways of for the importation of infections. Generalizing information learned from outbreaks in Tokyo and Madeira with global epidemic intelligence, global travel networks, and climate change projections, leads to more refined understanding of the magnitude of dengue infectious imported into temperate areas and these virus introduction events’ potential implications for seeding epidemics in the 21st century. Results While compared to total travel, imported dengue events and epidemics of dengue outside the tropics are rare, our combined evidence and modeled estimations suggest strongly that epidemic dengue emergence in temperate areas is possible and will continue to increase. We found that global change dynamics including warming temperatures in the much of the northern hemisphere and increasing passenger interconnectivity between areas endemic for dengue and dengue free areas are key mechanisms partly explaining these unprecedented epidemiological transitions. Conclusion While we calibrated our models on information known about dengue, many elements of the methods and conclusions may increase understanding of the potentially global implications for imported infections of other climate-sensitive infectious diseases’ that may have similar parameters. During 2016 and the years to come, techniques developed in this doctoral research will contribute to models used in risk analysis for vector-borne diseases of interest, including the increasing important potential for imported Chikungunya and Zika viruses into a variety of unexposed areas.

Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits : A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies

This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities

Epidemiology of dengue : past, present and future prospects

Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265-420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012-2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective of this paper is to review historical and current epidemiology of dengue worldwide and, additionally, reflect on some potential reasons for expansion of dengue into the future

Dissecting Japan's Dengue Outbreak in 2014

Despite Japan's temperate climate, a dengue outbreak occurred in Tokyo for the first time in over 70 years in 2014. We dissected this dengue outbreak based on phylogenetic analysis, travel interconnectivity, and environmental drivers for dengue epidemics. Comparing the available dengue virus 1 (DENV1) E gene sequence from this outbreak with 3,282 unique DENV1 sequences in National Center for Biotechnology Information suggested that the DENV might have been imported from China, Indonesia, Singapore, or Vietnam. With travelers arriving into Japan, Guangzhou (China) may have been the source of DENV introduction, given that Guangzhou also reported a large-scale dengue outbreak in 2014. Coinciding with the 2014 outbreak, Tokyo's climate conditions permitted the amplification of Aedes vectors and the annual peak of vectorial capacity. Given suitable vectors and climate conditions in addition to increasing interconnectivity with endemic areas of Asia, Tokyo's 2014 outbreak did not come as a surprise and may foretell more to come

Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones

BACKGROUND: Globally, dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya are important viral mosquito-borne diseases that infect millions of people annually. Their geographic range includes not only tropical areas but also sub-tropical and temperate zones such as Japan and Italy. The relative severity of these arboviral disease outbreaks can vary depending on the setting. In this study we explore variation in the epidemiologic potential of outbreaks amongst these climatic zones and arboviruses in order to elucidate potential reasons behind such differences. METHODOLOGY: We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature (PubMed) to obtain basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya from tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions. We also computed R0 estimates for temperate and sub-tropical climate zones, based on the outbreak curves in the initial outbreak phase. Lastly we compared these estimates across climate zones, defined by latitude. RESULTS: Of 2115 studies, we reviewed the full text of 128 studies and included 65 studies in our analysis. Our results suggest that the R0 of an arboviral outbreak depends on climate zone, with lower R0 estimates, on average, in temperate zones (R0 = 2.03) compared to tropical (R0 = 3.44) and sub-tropical zones (R0 = 10.29). The variation in R0 was considerable, ranging from 0.16 to 65. The largest R0 was for dengue (65) and was estimated by the Ross-Macdonald model in the tropical zone, whereas the smallest R0 (0.16) was for Zika virus and was estimated statistically from an outbreak curve in the sub-tropical zone. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate climate zone to be an important determinant of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya. The role of other factors as determinants of R0, such as methods, environmental and social conditions, and disease control, should be further investigated. The results suggest that R0 may increase in temperate regions in response to global warming, and highlight the increasing need for strengthening preparedness and control activities