An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment

On the use of semi-distributed and fully-distributed urban stormwater models

Urban stormwater models comprise four main components: rainfall, rainfall-runoff, overland flow and sewer flow modules. They can be considered semi-distributed (SD) or fully distributed (FD) according to the rainfall-runoff module definition. SD models are based on sub-catchments units through which rainfall is applied to the model and at which runoff volumes are estimated. In FD models, the runoff volumes are estimated and applied directly on every element of a twodimensional (2D) model of the surface. This poster presents a comparison of SD and FD models based on two case studies: Zona Central catchment at Coimbra, Portugal, and Cranbrook catchment at London, UK. SD and FD modelling results are compared against water depth and flow records in sewers, and photographic records of a flood event. In general, FD models are theoretically more realistic and physically-based, but the results of this study suggest that the implementation of these models requires higher resolution (more detailed) elevation, land use and sewer network data than is normally used in the implementation of SD models. Failing to use higher resolution data for the implementation of FD models could result in poor-performing models. In cases when high resolution data are not available, the use of SD models could be a better choice

The CWKB approach to non-reflecting potential and cosmological implications

We discuss the method of calculating the reflection coefficient using complex trajectory WKB (CWKB) approximation. This enables us to give an interpretation of non-reflecting nature of the potential under certain conditions and clarify some points, reported incorrectly elsewhere [vs:ejp] for the potential $U(x)=-U_0cosh^2(x/a)$. We show that the repeated reflectios between the turning points are essential, which most authors overlooked, in obtaining the non-reflecting c ondition. We find that the considered repeated reflection paths are in conformity with Bogolubov transformation technique. We discuss the implications of the results when applied to the particle production scenario, considering $x$ as a time variable and also stress the cosmological implications of the result with reference to radiation domonated and de Sitter spacetime.Comment: 9 pages, late

Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon

The decreasing trend in rainfall in the last few decades over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of northern India as observed in ground-based observations puts increasing stress on groundwater because irrigation uses up to 70% of freshwater resources. In this work, we have analyzed the effects of extensive irrigation over the Gangetic Plains on the seasonal mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon, using a general circulation model and a very high-resolution soil moisture dataset created using extensive field observations in a state-of-the-art hydrological model. We find that the winter-time (November–March) irrigation has a positive feedback on the Indian summer monsoon through large scale circulation changes. These changes are analogous to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during winter months. The effects of the positive NAO phase persist from winter to spring through widespread changes in surface conditions over western and central Asia, which makes the pre-monsoon conditions suitable for a subsequent good monsoon over India. Winter-time irrigation also resulted in a reduction of low frequency intra-seasonal variability over the Indian region during the monsoon season. However, when irrigation is practiced throughout the year, a decrease in June–September precipitation over the Gangetic Plains, significant at 95% level, is noted as compared to the no-irrigation scenario. This decrease is attributed to the increase in local soil moisture due to irrigation, which results in a southward shift of the moisture convergence zone during the active phase of monsoon, decreasing its mean and intraseasonal variability. Interestingly, these changes show a remarkable similarity to the long-term trend in observed rainfall spatial pattern and low-frequency variability. Our results suggest that with a decline in the mean summer precipitation and stressed groundwater resources in the Gangetic Plains, the water crisis could exacerbate, with irrigation having a weakening effect on the regional monsoon

A method for adjusting design storm peakedness to reduce bias in hydraulic simulations

In the UK, decision makers use hydraulic model outputs to inform funding, connection consent, adoption of new drainage networks and planning application decisions. Current practice requires the application of design storms to calculate sewer catchment performance metrics such as flood volume, discharge rate and flood count. With flooding incidents occurring more frequently than their designs specify, hydraulic modelling outputs required by practice are questionable. The main focus of this paper is the peakedness factor (ratio of maximum to average rainfall intensity) of design storms, adjudging that this is a key contributor to model bias. Hydraulic models of two UK sewer catchments were simulated under historical storms, design storms and design storms with modified peakedness to test bias in modelling outputs and the effectiveness of peakedness modification in reducing bias. Sustainable drainage systems (Suds) were implemented at catchment scale and the betterment achieved in the modelling outputs was tested. The proposed design storm modification reduced the bias that occurs when driving hydraulic models using design storms in comparison with historical storms. It is concluded that Suds benefits are underestimated when using design rainfall because the synthetic rainfall shape prevents infiltration. Thus, Suds interventions cannot accurately be evaluated by design storms, modified or otherwise

Quantum Cosmology for a Quadratic Theory of Gravity

For pure fourth order (${\cal{L}} \propto R^2$) quantum cosmology the Wheeler-DeWitt equation is solved exactly for the closed homogeneous and isotropic model. It is shown that by imposing as boundary condition that $\Psi = 0$ at the origin of the universe the wave functions behave as suggested by Vilenkin.Comment: 13 pages, latex,no figure

Determinant-Gravity: Cosmological implications

We analyze the action $\int d^4x \sqrt{\det||{\cal B} g_{\mu\nu}+ {\cal C} R_{\mu\nu}}||$ as a possible alternative or addition to the Einstein gravity. Choosing a particular form of ${\cal B}(R)= \sqrt {R}$ we can restore the Einstein gravity and, if ${\cal B}=m^2$, we obtain the cosmological constant term. Taking ${\cal B} = m^2 + {\cal B}_1 R$ and expanding the action in $1/m^2$, we obtain as a leading term the Einstein Lagrangian with a cosmological constant proportional to $m^4$ and a series of higher order operators. In general case of non-vanishing ${\cal B}$ and ${\cal C}$ new cosmological solutions for the Robertson-Walker metric are obtained.Comment: revtex format, 5 pages,8 figures,references adde

Can higher order curvature theories explain rotation curves of galaxies?

Higher order curvature gravity has recently received a lot of attention due to the fact that it gives rise to cosmological models which seem capable of solving dark energy and quintessence issues without using "ad hoc" scalar fields. In this letter, a gravitational potential is obtained which differs from the Newtonian one because of a repulsive correction increasing with distance. We evaluate the rotation curve of our Galaxy and compare it with the observed data in order both to test the viability of these theories and to estimate the scalelength of the correction. It is remarkable that the Milky Way rotation curve is well fitted without the need of any dark matter halo and a similar result tentatively holds also for other galaxies.Comment: 8 pages, to appear in Phys. Lett.

Urban stormwater modelling with MOHID

MOHID is a platform that includes a set of numerical models to simulate the water cycle in an integrated approach. It is an open source project that has been developed and applied to a wide range of studies since 1985. To increase its applicability for urban storm water modelling, the main module of the platform MOHID Land is now integrated with SWMM model via OpenMI. This poster evaluates the performance of MOHID in urban storm water modelling, by comparing results of the test cases presented by S. Néelz and G. Pender (2013) and of a real case study with InfoWorks ICM vs. 5.5. Moreover, it is discussed the advantage of covering the entire water cycle in MOHID platform, making it applicable for a wide range of cases

Accelerated Cosmological Models in Ricci squared Gravity

Alternative gravitational theories described by Lagrangians depending on general functions of the Ricci scalar have been proven to give coherent theoretical models to describe the experimental evidence of the acceleration of universe at present time. In this paper we proceed further in this analysis of cosmological applications of alternative gravitational theories depending on (other) curvature invariants. We introduce Ricci squared Lagrangians in minimal interaction with matter (perfect fluid); we find modified Einstein equations and consequently modified Friedmann equations in the Palatini formalism. It is striking that both Ricci scalar and Ricci squared theories are described in the same mathematical framework and both the generalized Einstein equations and generalized Friedmann equations have the same structure. In the framework of the cosmological principle, without the introduction of exotic forms of dark energy, we thus obtain modified equations providing values of w_{eff}<-1 in accordance with the experimental data. The spacetime bi-metric structure plays a fundamental role in the physical interpretation of results and gives them a clear and very rich geometrical interpretation.Comment: New version: 26 pages, 1 figure (now included), Revtex