The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies

Producción CientíficaClimate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO2 emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO2, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO2 that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period

The role of renewable energies for the sustainable energy governance and environmental policies for the mitigation of climate change in Ecuador

Producción CientíficaThis article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO2 by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy planning with a greater participation of renewable energies would forecast a CO2 emission of 41,232.30 KT, that is, a reduction of 31.5% in emissions.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (project RED2018-102794

Low-carbon energy governance : scenarios to accelerate the change in the energy matrix in Ecuador

Producción CientíficaThis article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO2 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower

Global Sustainability Crossroads: A Participatory Simulation Game to Educate in the Energy and Sustainability Challenges of the 21st Century

Producción CientíficaThere is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy–economy–environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a significant pedagogical potential: the game is able to generate discussions on crucial topics which are usually outside the public realm such as the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, the role of technology, how human desires are limited by biophysical constraints or the possibility of climate tipping point

Less than 2°C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement

Producción CientíficaThe literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and its economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socio-economic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socio-economic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2 °C objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005–2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3°–4 °C.European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287

How coaches’ need-supportive and controlling behaviors are related to different (mal)adaptive outcomes in water polo players: a person-centered approach

The relationship between both coaches’ need-supportive and controlling behaviors and different athletes’ motivational outcomes has been previously examined. However, little is known about the coexistence of coaches’ need-supportive and controlling behaviors in the sports context and even less, about what coach’s motivating style configuration may yield the most and the least adaptive pattern of outcomes in relation to athletes’ motivating experiences. Grounded in self-determination theory (SDT), this study aimed to identify coach motivating style groups based on athletes’ perceptions of need-supportive and four controlling behaviors (i.e., controlling use of rewards, negative conditional regard, intimidation, and personal control), and to examine their differences in terms of athletes’ motivational outcomes and sport commitment. Using a sample of 658 young water polo players (Mage = 14.76, SD = 1.36), results revealed five distinct coach motivating style groups. A coexistence of need-supportive and controlling use of rewards was identified among athletes in two groups. The “very low support-high control” group yielded the most maladaptive outcomes, while the “high support-low control” group was the most optimal style, even when compared to coaches that combined high need-supportive and controlling practices. This study provides deeper insights on how athletes may perceive simultaneously coach’s need-supportive and controlling behaviors, and how some controlling practices imply a higher motivational cost among athletes

Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies

Producción CientíficaA novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial re-materialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project no. FJCI-2016-28833)MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 69128

Modelling of sectoral energy demand through energy intensities in MEDEAS integrated assessment model

Producción CientíficaThe estimation of future energy demand is a key factor for the development of effective alternative policies towards a low carbon economy. This paper describes a novel method to estimate the energy demand in the new integrated assessment framework MEDEAS based on the projection of sectoral final energy intensities. The dynamic of each of the sectoral final energy intensity is broken down into (1) improvement in energy efficiency and (2) substitution of the final energy. The speed of changes in these factors depend on physical supply-demand unbalances in the market, climate mitigation and other energy saving policies and the perception of scarcity of the different economic agents. The simulated case studies in MEDEAS-World under the narrative of the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario have allowed validating the model's robustness and showing the potentiality of its application.European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833

An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU

Producción CientíficaThe Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-85110-R

Point cloud simulator for space in-orbit close range autonomous operations

In recent years, many different in-orbit close-range autonomous operations have been developed for multiple purposes, such as rendezvous and docking operations or ADR operations. In both cases, the systems have to calculate the relative position between the spacecraft and the target in order to control the orbital manoeuvres and the physic interaction between both systems. One of the sensors used for the pose calculation for these operations are LiDAR sensors, developing pose calculation algorithms that process the point cloud acquired by these sensors. One of the main problems for the development and testing of these algorithms is the lack of real data acquired in orbit and the difficulty of acquiring this data. This makes it fundamental to develop a simulator to generate realistic point clouds that can be used to develop and test pose calculation algorithms. This work presents a simulator developed for this purpose, that is the generation of realistic point clouds for algorithm development for pose calculation using LiDAR sensors for space in-orbit close range autonomous operations. The simulator uses the LiDAR sensor specifications, in order to introduces measurement errors and the scanning pattern, and 3D model of the satellite or object that is scanned.Universidade de Vigo | Ref. 58550