Modeling soil water dynamics considering measurement uncertainty

In shallow water table controlled environments, surface water management impacts groundwater table levels and soil water dynamics. The study goal was to simulate soil water dynamics in response to canal stage raises considering uncertainty in measured soil water content. WAVE (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil, crop and Vadose Environment) was applied to simulate unsaturated flow above a shallow aquifer. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify model input factors with greatest influence on predicted soil water content. Nash-Sutcliffe increased and Root Mean Square Error reduced when uncertainties in measured data were considered in goodness-of-fit calculations using measurement probability distributions and probable asymmetric error boundaries; implying that appropriate model performance evaluation should be done using uncertainty ranges instead of single values. Although uncertainty in the experimental measured data limited evaluation of the absolute predictions by the model, WAVE was found a useful exploratory tool for estimating temporal variation in soil water content. Visual analysis of soil water content time series under proposed changes in canal stage management indicated that sites with land surface elevation of less than 2.0 m NGVD29 were predicted to periodically experience saturated conditions in the root zone and shortening of the growing season if canal stage is raised more than 9 cm and maintained at this level. The models developed could be combined with high resolution digital elevation models in future studies to identify areas with the greatest risk of experiencing saturated root zone. The study also highlighted the need to incorporate measurement uncertainty when evaluating performance of unsaturated flow models

Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for an approximate analytical model of canal-aquifer interaction applied in the C-111 basin

The goal of this study was to better characterize parameters influencing the exchange of surface water in south Florida’s C-111 canal and Biscayne aquifer using the analytical model STWT1. A three-step model evaluation framework was implemented as follows: (1) qualitative parameter ranking by comparing two Morris method sampling strategies, (2) quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method, and (3) estimation of parameter posterior probability distributions and statistics using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (GLUE) methodology. Results indicated that the original Morris random sampling method underestimated total parameter effects compared to the improved global Morris sampling strategy. However, parameter rankings from the two sampling methods were similar. For the STWT1 model, only four out of the six parameters analyzed were important for predicting water table response to canal stage and recharge fluctuations. Morris ranking in order of decreasing importance resulted in specific yield (ASY), aquifer saturated thickness (AB), horizontal hydraulic conductivity (AKX), canal leakance (XAA), vertical hydraulic conductivity (AKZ), and half-width of canal (XZERO). Sobol’s sensitivity indices for the four most critical parameters revealed that summation of first-order parameter effects was 1.0, indicating that STWT1 behaved as an additive model or negligible parameter interactions. We estimated parameter values of 0.07 to 0.14 for ASY, 11,000 to 14,300 m d-1 for AKX, 13.4 to 18.3 m for AB, and 99.8 to 279 m for XAA. The estimated values were within the range of values estimated using more complex methods at nearby sites. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency and root mean square error for estimated parameters ranged from 0.66 to 0.95 and from 4 to 7 cm, respectively. This study demonstrates a simple and inexpensive way to characterize hydrogeological parameters controlling groundwater-surface interactions in any region with aquifers that are highly permeable without using standard pumping tests or canal drawdown experiments. Hydrogeological parameters estimated using this approach could be used as starting values in large-scale numerical simulations

Dynamic factor analysis of surface water management impacts on soil and bedrock water contents in Southern Florida Lowlands

As part of the C111 spreader canal project, structural and operational modifications involving incremental raises in canal stage are planned along one of the major canals (i.e., C111) separating Everglades National Park and agricultural production areas to the east of the park. This study used Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) as an alternative tool to physically based models to explore the relationship between different hydrologic variables and the effect of proposed changes in surface water management on soil and bedrock water contents in south Florida. To achieve the goal, objectives were to: (1) use DFA to identify the most important factors affecting temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, (2) develop a simplified DFA based regression model for predicting soil and bedrock water contents as a function of canal stage and (3) assess the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on soil and bedrock water contents. DFA revealed that 5 common trends were the minimum required to describe unexplained variation in the 11 time series studied. Introducing canal stage, water table evaporation and net recharge resulted in lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) and higher Nash-Sutcliffe (C[subscript eff]) values. Results indicated that canal stage significantly (t > 2) drives temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, which was represented as scaled frequency while net surface recharge was significant in 7 out of the 11 time series analyzed. The effect of water table evaporation was not significant at all sites. Results also indicated that the most important factor influencing temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents in terms of regression coefficient magnitude was canal stage. Based on DFA results, a simple regression model was developed to predict soil and bedrock water contents at various elevations as a function of canal stage and net recharge. The performance of the simple model ranged from good (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.56 to 0.74) to poor (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.10 to 0.15), performance was better at sites with smaller depths to water table (< 1 m) highlighting the effect of micro-topography on soil and bedrock water content dynamics. Assessment of the effect of 6, 9 and 12 cm increases in canal stage using the simple regression model indicated that changes in temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents were negligible (average<1.0% average change) at 500 to 2000 m from C111 (or low elevations) which may be attributed to the near saturation conditions already occurring at these sites. This study used DFA to explore the relationship between soil and bedrock water dynamics and surface water stage in shallow water table environments. This approach can be applied to any system in which detailed physical modeling would be limited by inadequate information on parameters or processes governing the physical system

Simulating water table response to proposed changes in surface water management in the C-111 agricultural basin of south Florida

As part of an effort to restore the hydrology of Everglades National Park (ENP), incremental raises in canal stage are proposed along a major canal draining south Florida called C-111, which separates ENP from agricultural lands. The study purpose was to use monitoring and modeling to investigate the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on water table elevation in agricultural lands. The objectives were to: (1) develop a MODFLOW based model for simulating groundwater flow within the study area, (2) apply the developed model to determine if the proposed changes in canal stage result in significant changes in water table elevation, root zone saturation or groundwater flooding and (3) assess aquifer response to large rainfall events. Results indicate the developed model was able to reproduce measured water table elevation with an average Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.9 and Root Mean Square Error 2 year return period storm), reduced water table intrusion into the root zone. We conclude that the impact of operational changes in canal stage management on root zone saturation and groundwater flooding depended on micro-topography within the field and depth of storm events. The findings of this study can be used in fine tuning canal stage operations to minimize root zone saturation and groundwater flooding of agricultural fields while maximizing environmental benefits through increased water flow in the natural wetland areas. This study also highlights the benefit of detailed field scale simulations

Genetic disarray follows mutant KLF1-E325K expression in a congenital dyserythropoietic anemia patient

C ongenital dyserythropoietic anemia type IV is caused by a heterozygous mutation, Glu325Lys (E325K), in the KLF1 transcription factor. Molecular characteristics of this disease have not been clarified, partly due to its rarity. We expanded erythroid cells from a patient\u2019s peripheral blood and analyzed its global expression pattern. We find that a large number of erythroid pathways are disrupted, particularly those related to membrane transport, globin regulation, and iron utilization. The altered genetics lead to significant deficits in differentiation. Glu325 is within the KLF1 zinc finger domain at an amino acid critical for site specific DNA binding. The change to Lys is predicted to significantly alter the target site recognition sequence, both by subverting normal recognition and by enabling interaction with novel sites. Consistent with this, we find high level ectopic expression of genes not normally present in the red cell. These altered properties explain patients\u2019 clinical and phenotypic features, and elucidate the dominant character of the mutation

Urinary Levoglucosan as a Biomarker for Wood Smoke: Results of Human Exposure Studies

Urinary levoglucosan was investigated as a potential biomarker for wood smoke exposure in two different controlled experimental settings. Nine subjects were exposed to smoke from a campfire in a controlled setting and four were exposed to smoke from an older model wood stove. All subjects were asked to provide urine samples before and after exposure, and to wear personal PM2.5 monitors during the exposure. Urinary levoglucosan measurements from both studies showed no consistent response to the smoke exposure. A third experiment was conducted to assess the contribution of dietary factors to urinary levoglucosan levels. Nine subjects were asked to consume caramel and provide urine samples before and after consumption. Urinary levoglucosan levels increased within 2 hours of caramel consumption and returned to pre-exposure levels within 24 hours. These studies suggest that diet is a major factor in determining urinary levoglucosan levels and recent dietary history needs to be taken into account for future work involving levoglucosan as a biomarker of wood smoke exposure

Urinary Levoglucosan as a Biomarker of Wood Smoke Exposure: Observations in a Mouse Model and in Children

BACKGROUND: Biomass smoke is an important source of particulate matter (PM), and much remains to be discovered with respect to the human health effects associated with this specific PM source. Exposure to biomass smoke can occur in one of two main categories: short-term exposures consist of periodic, seasonal exposures typified by communities near forest fires or intentional agricultural burning, and long-term exposures are chronic and typified by the use of biomass materials for cooking or heating. Levoglucosan (LG), a sugar anhydride released by combustion of cellulose-containing materials, is an attractive candidate as a biomarker of wood smoke exposure. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, Balb/c mice and children were assessed for LG in urine to determine its feasibility as a biomarker. METHODS: We performed urinary detection of LG by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry after intranasal instillations of LG or concentrated PM (mice) or biomass exposure (mice or humans). RESULTS: After instillation, we recovered most of the LG within the first 4 hr. Experiments using glucose instillation proved the specificity of our system, and instillation of concentrated PM from wood smoke, ambient air, and diesel exhaust supported a connection between wood smoke and LG. In addition, LG was detected in the urine of mice exposed to wood smoke. Finally, a pilot human study proved our ability to detect LG in urine of children. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that LG in the lungs is detectable in the urine of both mice and humans and that it is a good candidate as a biomarker of exposure to biomass smoke

Comparative Assessment of the Structural Features of Originator Recombinant Human Follitropin Alfa Versus Recombinant Human Follitropin Alfa Biosimilar Preparations Approved in Non-European Regions

Although the full primary structures of the alfa and beta subunits of reference r-hFSH-alfa and its biosimilars are identical, cell context-dependent differences in the expressing cell lines and manufacturing process can lead to variations in glycosylation profiles. In the present study, we compared the structural features of reference r-hFSH-alfa with those of five biosimilar preparations approved in different global regions outside Europe (Primapur®, Jin Sai Heng®, Follitrope®, Folisurge®, and Corneumon®) with respect to glycosylation, macro- and microheterogeneity, and other post-translational modifications and higher order structure. The mean proportion of N-glycosylation-site occupancy was highest in reference r-hFSH-alfa, decreasing sequentially in Primapur, Jin Sai Heng, Corneumon, Follisurge and Follitrope, respectively. The level of antennarity showed slightly higher complexity in Corneumon, Primapur and Follitrope versus reference r-hFSH-alfa, whereas Jin Sai Heng and Folisurge were aligned with reference r-hFSH-alfa across all N-glycosylation sites. Sialylation level was higher in Corneumon and Follitrope, but small differences were detected in other biosimilar preparations compared with reference r-hFSH-alfa. Jin Sai Heng showed higher levels of N-glyconeuramic acid than the other preparations. Minor differences in oxidation levels were seen among the different products. Therefore, in summary, we identified var ious differences in N-glycosylation occupancy, antennarity, sialylation and oxidation between reference r-hFSH-alfa and the biosimilar preparations analyzed

Water Quality Trends at Inflows to Everglades National Park, 1977–2005

Restoration of the Florida Everglades is important for the health of the natural system, including both the &quot;River of Grass&quot; and its downstream estuaries. Water quality improvement is one indicator of successful restoration in this complex ecosystem. Using the period of record of 1977 through 2005, we evaluated data from seven infl ow sites to the Everglades National Park (ENP) for temporal trends of various forms of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) and analyzed them using principal component analysis and factor analysis without fl ow adjustments. Locally estimated scatter plot smoothing (LOESS) trend lines identifi ed two infl ection points (three time periods) of changing trend in total P (TP) concentration at the seven sites. Results indicated that overall water quality in ENP infl ow improved from 1977 to 2005, with signifi cant downward trends in TP concentration. Th e overall trend of TP is probably mediated by hydrology, which is evident by a negative relationship between fl ow and annual average TP concentration at the majority of stations within the available data, although additional changes in vegetation due to hydroperiod may have some eff ects. Total N (TN), total Kjeldahl N, and total organic N concentrations also generally decreased at infl ow sites. Water quality standards for TP, TN, and NH 4 + -N were exceeded at selected sites during the study period. Principle component analysis and factor analysis detected a grouping of sampling sites related to the water delivery system that could be used as indicators to better manage monitoring resources. Study results suggest that water quality data analyses could provide additional insight into the success of a restoration management plan and on how monitoring may be modifi ed for more effi cient use of resources