Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients

Background: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. Results: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 μm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87–0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87–0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 μm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75–0.93), 0.76 (0.67–0.85), 0.69 (0.59–0.79), or 0.63 (0.52–0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. Conclusions: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials

Frequency of left ventricular hypertrophy in non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is significantly related to adverse clinical outcomes in patients at high risk of cardiovascular events. In patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), data on LVH, that is, prevalence and determinants, are inconsistent mainly because of different definitions and heterogeneity of study populations. We determined echocardiographic-based LVH prevalence and clinical factors independently associated with its development in a prospective cohort of patients with non-valvular (NV) AF. From the "Atrial Fibrillation Registry for Ankle-brachial Index Prevalence Assessment: Collaborative Italian Study" (ARAPACIS) population, 1,184 patients with NVAF (mean age 72 \ub1 11 years; 56% men) with complete data to define LVH were selected. ARAPACIS is a multicenter, observational, prospective, longitudinal on-going study designed to estimate prevalence of peripheral artery disease in patients with NVAF. We found a high prevalence of LVH (52%) in patients with NVAF. Compared to those without LVH, patients with AF with LVH were older and had a higher prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and previous myocardial infarction (MI). A higher prevalence of ankle-brachial index 640.90 was seen in patients with LVH (22 vs 17%, p = 0.0392). Patients with LVH were at significantly higher thromboembolic risk, with CHA2DS2-VASc 652 seen in 93% of LVH and in 73% of patients without LVH (p <0.05). Women with LVH had a higher prevalence of concentric hypertrophy than men (46% vs 29%, p = 0.0003). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that female gender (odds ratio [OR] 2.80, p <0.0001), age (OR 1.03 per year, p <0.001), hypertension (OR 2.30, p <0.001), diabetes (OR 1.62, p = 0.004), and previous MI (OR 1.96, p = 0.001) were independently associated with LVH. In conclusion, patients with NVAF have a high prevalence of LVH, which is related to female gender, older age, hypertension, and previous MI. These patients are at high thromboembolic risk and deserve a holistic approach to cardiovascular prevention

Prognostic value of FDG-PET prior to autologous stem cell transplantation for relapsed and refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

High-dose chemotherapy (HDT) plus autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is the standard of care for chemosensitive relapsed and refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (rel/ref DLBCL). Interim restaging with functional imaging by positron emission tomography using (18)F-deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) has not been established after salvage chemotherapy (ST) and before HDT-ASCT by modern criteria. Herein, we evaluated 129 patients with rel/ref DLBCL proceeding to HDT-ASCT, with ST response assessment by FDG-PET according to the contemporary Deauville 5-point scale. At 3 years, patients achieving a Deauville response of 1 to 3 to ST experienced superior progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates of 77% and 86%, respectively, compared with patients achieving Deauville 4 (49% and 54%, respectively) (P < .001). No other pre-HDT-ASCT risk factors significantly impacted PFS or OS. Despite achieving remission to ST, patients with Deauville 4 should be the focus of risk-adapted investigational therapies

Survival from Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: What Has Age Got to Do with It?

Background: In most staging systems, 45 years of age is used to differentiate low risk thyroid cancer from high risk thyroid cancer. However, recent studies have questioned both the precise 45 year age point and the concept of using a binary cut off as accurate predictors of disease specific mortality. Methods: A cohort of 3664 thyroid cancer patients that received surgery and adjuvant treatment at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from the years 1985 to 2010 were analyzed to determine the significance of age at diagnosis as a categorical variable at a variety of age cutoffs (5 year intervals between 30 and 70 years of age). The unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio for the association between disease-specific survival and age was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for other predictive variables sex, histology, and pathological T, N, and M status. Furthermore, predictive nomograms of disease-specific mortality were created and validated on an external dataset of 4551 patients to evaluate the impact of age at diagnosis as both a categorical and continuous variable. Results: In the MSKCC cohort, with a median follow-up time of 54 months (range 1–332), there were 59 deaths from thyroid cancer with a 10 year disease-specific survival of 96%. Adjusted hazard ratios for all age cutoffs from age 30 to age 70 years were significant. There was no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Categorizing age into five strata (<40, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69 and >70 years) showed a 37-fold increase in hazard ratio from age <40 years to age >70 years. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable with other predictive variables had a high concordance index of 96%. Validation on the external cohort had a concordance index of 73%. Conclusions: Mortality from DTC increases progressively with advancing age. There is no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with DTC. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable may be a more appropriate tool for stratifying patients with DTC and for predicting outcome

Nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence in patients with adenoid cystic carcinoma. An international collaborative study

Background Due to the rarity of adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC), information on outcome is based upon small retrospective case series. The aim of our study was to create a large multiinstitutional international dataset of patients with ACC in order to design predictive nomograms for outcome. Methods ACC patients managed at 10 international centers were identified. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were recorded and an international collaborative dataset created. Multivariable competing risk models were then built to predict the 10 year recurrence free probability (RFP), distant recurrence free probability (DRFP), overall survival (OS) and cancer specific mortality (CSM). All predictors of interest were added in the starting full models before selection, including age, gender, tumor site, clinical T stage, perineural invasion, margin status, pathologic N-status, and M-status. Stepdown method was used in model selection to choose predictive variables. An external dataset of 99 patients from 2 other institutions was used to validate the nomograms. Findings Of 438 ACC patients, 27.2% (119/438) died from ACC and 38.8% (170/438) died of other causes. Median follow-up was 56 months (range 1-306). The nomogram for OS had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N-status and M-status) with a concordance index (CI) of 0.71. The nomogram for CSM had the same variables, except margin status, with a concordance index (CI) of 0.70. The nomogram for RFP had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N status and perineural invasion) (CI 0.66). The nomogram for DRFP had 6 variables (gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, pathologic N-status, perineural invasion and margin status) (CI 0.64). Concordance index for the external validation set were 0.76, 0.72, 0.67 and 0.70 respectively. Interpretation Using an international collaborative database we have created the first nomograms which estimate outcome in individual patients with ACC. These predictive nomograms will facilitate patient counseling in terms of prognosis and subsequent clinical follow-up. They will also identify high risk patients who may benefit from clinical trials on new targeted therapies for patients with ACC. Funding None

An International Multi-Institutional Validation of Age 55 Years as a Cutoff for Risk Stratification in the AJCC/UICC Staging System for Well-Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BackgroundAge is a critical factor in outcome for patients with well-differentiated thyroid cancer. Currently, age 45 years is used as a cutoff in staging, although there is increasing evidence to suggest this may be too low. The aim of this study was to assess the potential for changing the cut point for the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) staging system from 45 years to 55 years based on a combined international patient cohort supplied by individual institutions.MethodsA total of 9484 patients were included from 10 institutions. Tumor (T), nodes (N), and metastasis (M) data and age were provided for each patient. The group was stratified by AJCC/UICC stage using age 45 years and age 55 years as cutoffs. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate outcomes for disease-specific survival (DSS). Concordance probability estimates (CPE) were calculated to compare the degree of concordance for each model.ResultsUsing age 45 years as a cutoff, 10-year DSS rates for stage I-IV were 99.7%, 97.3%, 96.6%, and 76.3%, respectively. Using age 55 years as a cutoff, 10-year DSS rates for stage I-IV were 99.5%, 94.7%, 94.1%, and 67.6%, respectively. The change resulted in 12% of patients being downstaged, and the downstaged group had a 10-year DSS of 97.6%. The change resulted in an increase in CPE from 0.90 to 0.92.ConclusionsA change in the cutoff age in the current AJCC/UICC staging system from 45 years to 55 years would lead to a downstaging of 12% of patients, and would improve the statistical validity of the model. Such a change would be clinically relevant for thousands of patients worldwide by preventing overstaging of patients with low-risk disease while providing a more realistic estimate of prognosis for those who remain high risk