Complexity in Foresight: experiences with INTERSECTIONS: an agent-based simulation workbench to help achieve adaptiveness in strategic planning

“Complexity in Foresight” is a new synthetic paradigm that crosses areas in strategic planning and the complexity sciences. It connects the fields of agent-based simulation and complex adapative systems, and provides the overall blueprint for the construction of a new generation of toolkits. The plan is ambitious: to help achieve adaptiveness in strategic planning. My proposal is to start the construction of an agent-based simulation workbench with the ingredients: would-be worlds, building-block approaches and learning-action networks. The workbench will be designed to support learning-action networks; the informal networks of scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders that have a critical role for sustainable development. Their interactions and learning will be facilitated by would-be worlds; agent-based simulation models that function as “laboratories”, which the used to generate crude images of transitional change. These images will be treated as thought experiments, designed to make it easier for the planners to switch between observable realities and possible realities. Building-block approaches help to organize the modeling, experimentation and learning processes in a very flexible way, so that the overall process becomes adaptive. In this thesis I present the “Framework for Synthesis” designed to facilitate a unifying process to the development and use of would-be worlds. I build tools and methods and integrate them into the “INTERSECTIONS” workbench. I apply different combinations of these tools and methods in two case studies. I evaluate the potential usefulness of the Framework for Synthesis to support learning-action networks. I present the Framework on the CD-ROM included with this thesis, so that the reader can interact with the tools and methods

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory

Modelling socio-technical transition patterns and pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe

Modelización participativa para la evaluación integrada de la sostenibilidad de los recursos hídricos: el Modelo del Mundo Celular y el Proyecto Matisse

El presente trabajo describe el proceso participativo vinculado al desarrollo y la implementación del prototipo de un modelo que tiene como principal objetivo servir de soporte durante el procesos de Evaluación Integrada de la Sostenibilidad (EIS) de diferentes opciones políticas de gestión de los recursos hídricos a diferentes niveles de acción. El modelo – llamado el Modelo del Mundo Celular (MMC) – se centra en la representación del comportamiento de los agentes respecto a sus relaciones sistemáticas con el medio ambiente. Esto se consigue principalmente mediante el análisis tres aspectos. En primer lugar, se analizan los intereses, motivaciones, creencias culturales y otras condiciones estructurales que condicionan la conducta de los agentes en el usos de las reservas y flujos de agua. Segundo, mediante el estudio a diferentes escalas del impacto sobre los ecosistemas naturales y el medio ambiente en general del comportamiento de los usuarios. Por último, se realiza de forma co-evolutiva el análisis del impacto de esos cambios ambientales en el comportamiento de los agentes. El MCM utiliza una perspectiva integrada, multi-escalar y basada en agentes. Los agentes operan en un único sistema interrelacionado en el cual cada individuo o agente colectivo responde a su disponibilidad y uso de un conjunto de reservas y flujos de reglas sociales e instituciones (S), energía y recursos (E) información y conocimiento (I), que a su vez provocan impactos y cambios (C) en el sistema socio-ecológico. Este modelo se está desarrollando conjuntamente con Grupos de Discusión como parte de un proceso de Evaluación Integrada participativa. En el proceso de participación intervienen actores reales involucrados en la gestión del agua que aportan su conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los agentes y la posible arquitectura del modelo para incrementar su robustez social y su relevancia política. Nuestra investigación forma parte del proyecto MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment)financiado por la Unión Europea.This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model. This model is aimed at supporting integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) of policy options for managing water resources at different levels of action. The model is called the World Cellular Model (WCM). It represents agents’ behaviour in terms of their systemic relationships with the environment. This is achieved by examining three aspects. Firstly, we analyse the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and other structural conditions that drive agents’ actions with regard to their use of reserves and flows of water. Secondly, we examine different levels of the impact of agents’ behaviour on the environment and on natural ecosystems. Thirdly, we analyse in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviour of agents. The WCM uses an integrated, multi-scale, agent-based perspective. Agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of reserves and flows of social rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. This model is being developed with the collaboration of discussion groups, as part of a participatory integrated assessment process. Groups include people who are involved in water management. These group members have insight into agents’ behaviour and the possible architecture of the model. Their contributions can help to increase the model’s socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU-funded project MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment)

Participatory modelling for the integrated sustainability assessment of water: The World Cellular Model and the MATISSE project

This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model aimed at supporting the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of water resources and policy options at different scales. The model - called the World Cellular Model (WCM) focuses on the representation of agents’ behaviours and their systemic relationships with their environment. This is achieved by examining the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and structural resources that drive agents’ actions with regard to the use of stocks and flows of water, by looking at the impact of such water behaviours on the environment and on the natural ecosystems at different scales, and by examining in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviours of agents. The WC model takes a ‘total system’, multi-scale, agent perspective. That is, agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of stocks and flows of rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. . This model is being developed together with the use of participatory Integrated Assessment focus groups (IA-fgs) with real stakeholders to get insights about agents’ behaviours and the possible architecture of the model so as to increase its socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU funded project Matisse (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment)

Modelización participativa para la evaluación integrada de la sostenibilidad de los recursos hídricos: el Modelo del Mundo Celular y el Proyecto Matisse

El presente trabajo describe el proceso participativo vinculado al desarrollo y la implementación del prototipo de un modelo que tiene como principal objetivo servir de soporte durante el procesos de Evaluación Integrada de la Sostenibilidad (EIS) de diferentes opciones políticas de gestión de los recursos hídricos a diferentes niveles de acción. El modelo – llamado el Modelo del Mundo Celular (MMC) – se centra en la representación del comportamiento de los agentes respecto a sus relaciones sistemáticas con el medio ambiente. Esto se consigue principalmente mediante el análisis tres aspectos. En primer lugar, se analizan los intereses, motivaciones, creencias culturales y otras condiciones estructurales que condicionan la conducta de los agentes en el usos de las reservas y flujos de agua. Segundo, mediante el estudio a diferentes escalas del impacto sobre los ecosistemas naturales y el medio ambiente en general del comportamiento de los usuarios. Por último, se realiza de forma co-evolutiva el análisis del impacto de esos cambios ambientales en el comportamiento de los agentes. El MCM utiliza una perspectiva integrada, multi-escalar y basada en agentes. Los agentes operan en un único sistema interrelacionado en el cual cada individuo o agente colectivo responde a su disponibilidad y uso de un conjunto de reservas y flujos de reglas sociales e instituciones (S), energía y recursos (E) información y conocimiento (I), que a su vez provocan impactos y cambios (C) en el sistema socio-ecológico. Este modelo se está desarrollando conjuntamente con Grupos de Discusión como parte de un proceso de Evaluación Integrada participativa. En el proceso de participación intervienen actores reales involucrados en la gestión del agua que aportan su conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los agentes y la posible arquitectura del modelo para incrementar su robustez social y su relevancia política. Nuestra investigación forma parte del proyecto MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment)financiado por la Unión Europea.This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model. This model is aimed at supporting integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) of policy options for managing water resources at different levels of action. The model is called the World Cellular Model (WCM). It represents agents’ behaviour in terms of their systemic relationships with the environment. This is achieved by examining three aspects. Firstly, we analyse the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and other structural conditions that drive agents’ actions with regard to their use of reserves and flows of water. Secondly, we examine different levels of the impact of agents’ behaviour on the environment and on natural ecosystems. Thirdly, we analyse in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviour of agents. The WCM uses an integrated, multi-scale, agent-based perspective. Agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of reserves and flows of social rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. This model is being developed with the collaboration of discussion groups, as part of a participatory integrated assessment process. Groups include people who are involved in water management. These group members have insight into agents’ behaviour and the possible architecture of the model. Their contributions can help to increase the model’s socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU-funded project MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment)

Modelización participativa para la evaluación integrada de la sostenibilidad de los recursos hídricos : el modelo del mundo celular y el proyecto matisse

El presente trabajo describe el proceso participativo vinculado al desarrollo y la implementación del prototipo de un modelo que tiene como principal objetivo servir de soporte durante el procesos de Evaluación Integrada de la Sostenibilidad (EIS) de diferentes opciones políticas de gestión de los recursos hídricos a diferentes niveles de acción. El modelo - llamado el Modelo del Mundo Celular (MMC) - se centra en la representación del comportamiento de los agentes respecto a sus relaciones sistemáticas con el medio ambiente. Esto se consigue principalmente mediante el análisis tres aspectos. En primer lugar, se analizan los intereses, motivaciones, creencias culturales y otras condiciones estructurales que condicionan la conducta de los agentes en el usos de las reservas y flujos de agua. Segundo, mediante el estudio a diferentes escalas del impacto sobre los ecosistemas naturales y el medio ambiente en general del comportamiento de los usuarios. Por último, se realiza de forma co-evolutiva el análisis del impacto de esos cambios ambientales en el comportamiento de los agentes. El MCM utiliza una perspectiva integradamulti-escalar y basada en agentes. Los agentes operan en un único sistema interrelacionado en el cual cada individuo o agente colectivo responde a su disponibilidad y uso de un conjunto de reservas y flujos de reglas sociales e instituciones (S), energía y recursos (E) información y conocimiento (I), que a su vez provocan impactos y cambios (C) en el sistema socio-ecológico. Este modelo se está desarrollando conjuntamente con Grupos de Discusión como parte de un proceso de Evaluación Integrada participativa. En el proceso de participación intervienen actores reales involucrados en la gestión del agua que aportan su conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los agentes y la posible arquitectura del modelo para incrementar su robustez social y su relevancia política. Nuestra investigación forma parte del proyecto MATISSE (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment) financiado por la Unión Europea

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an "equilibriumist" approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called "transformation processes". These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers