Human Capital, Growth and Inequality in Transition Economies

Transition economies have an initial condition of high human capital relative to living standards. I explore the possible implications of this key fact by surveying and adapting literature on growth and inequality. I focus especially on the long run and policy options.Transition economies, human capital, growth, inequality, liquidity constraints, educational reform, long run

Productivity paralysis and the complexity problem : why do centrally planned economies become prematurely gray?

Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22)

Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships

We model growth in dictatorships facing each period an endogenous probability of ``political catastrophe'' that would extinguish the regime's wealth extraction ability. Domestic capital exhibits a bifurcation point determining economic growth or shrinkage. With low initial domestic capital the dictator plunders the country's resources and the economy shrinks. With high initial domestic capital the economy eventually grows faster than is socially optimal.dictatorship, growth, political economy, bifurcation

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.

The Severity of the Colombian Conflict: Cross-Country Datasets versus New Micro Data

We compare the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of the detailed micro dataset of Restrepo, Spagat and Vargas (2003). We find a general tendency of the big datasets to underestimate the magnitude of the Colombian conflict and to mischaracterize its dynamics. We suggest that conflict researchers should prioritize the construction of more micro datasets that will facilitate detailed studies of conflict intensity and its dynamics