An Introduction to the New Zealand Treasury Model

The Treasury is the New Zealand government’s lead advisor on economic and financial issues. Part of this advice consists of providing the government with forecasts of economic and fiscal variables. Economic forecasts are important, not only as a basis for forecasts of tax revenue, but also in informing the government of the macroeconomic environment in which proposed fiscal policy settings will operate. The New Zealand Treasury Model (NZTM) is an important part of the economic forecasting process at the Treasury. This paper has three purposes. The first is to give readers an idea of the key features of NZTM. The second is to detail major changes to the model since the last published documentation of the model (Szeto, 2002). These model developments have enhanced NZTM to provide more detailed forecasts. Key changes include the disaggregation of deflators into the various expenditure GDP components, the introduction of consumption and capital goods imports into the model (rather than just treating them as intermediate imports) and the disaggregation of the inflation equation into tradable and non-tradable components. The final purpose of this paper is to outline briefly NZTM’s role in the Treasury’s forecasting process.Computable general equilibrium model; New Zealand economy; forecasting

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance must be equal to zero. Second, a bigger economy will have greater impacts on others, but be influenced less by them. Third, a more open economy will have greater impacts on others and at the same time be more readily influenced by them. We then confront two alternative empirical specifications based on both the new and the conventional framework with a panel of data. In contrast to the findings based on the conventional framework, our results with the new framework indicate that population ageing does not appear to have discernible impacts on the current account balance.

Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance

This paper examines the impact of demographic factors on saving, investment, and external balances. We derive a number of semi-structural equations from national accounting principle and the principle that external balances for the world as a whole must sum to zero. The resulting equations embody both closed, partially open and completely open economies as special cases, and are arguably more properly specified than those previously used in the literature. We apply these semi-structural equations to a large panel data set. While our findings by and large are in agreement with most of previous studies, our semi-structural equations give much more plausible estimation results for saving and investment than conventional specification.

Culture and rapport promotion in service encounters: protecting the ties that bind

The present study aimed at investigating possible cultural effects on the perceived importance of interactional concerns in service encounters. Individual values were examined to establish an explanatory framework for any effects that might emerge. Hong Kong Chinese and Filipinos participated in the present study by rating the importance of 12 interactional concerns in five hypothetical scenarios involving service provision. “Rapport promotion” was the only consistent factor of interactional concerns to emerge from the five scenarios in each of the two cultural groups. The dimensions of individual values, labeled “Conservation” and “Self-Transcendence” by Schwartz (1992), significantly predicted a respondent’s level of rapport promotion across all scenarios, with self-transcendence partially unpackaging the cultural difference that emerged in one of the service scenarios. We use these results to support a model of communication in service provision that predicts communication concerns as arising from cultural socialization for personal characteristics and situational features of the encounter, leading to the petitioner’s being more dependent on the good will of the service provider

Does demographic change affect the current account? A reconsideration?

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance must be equal to zero. Second, a bigger economy will have greater impacts on others, but be influenced less by them. Third, a more open economy will have greater impacts on others and at the same time be more readily influenced by them. We then confront two alternative empirical specifications based on both the new and the conventional framework with a panel of data. In contrast to the findings based on the conventional framework, our results with the new framework indicate that population ageing does not appear to have discernible impacts on the current account balance

Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance must be equal to zero. Second, a bigger economy will have greater impacts on others, but be influenced less by them. Third, a more open economy will have greater impacts on others and at the same time be more readily influenced by them. We then confront two alternative empirical specifications based on both the new and the conventional framework with a panel of data. In contrast to the findings based on the conventional framework, our results with the new framework indicate that population ageing does not appear to have discernible impacts on the current account balanc

Access Control of Web- and Java-Based Applications

Cybersecurity has become a great concern as threats of service interruption, unauthorized access, stealing and altering of information, and spreading of viruses have become more prevalent and serious. Application layer access control of applications is a critical component in the overall security solution that also includes encryption, firewalls, virtual private networks, antivirus, and intrusion detection. An access control solution, based on an open-source access manager augmented with custom software components, was developed to provide protection to both Web-based and Javabased client and server applications. The DISA Security Service (DISA-SS) provides common access control capabilities for AMMOS software applications through a set of application programming interfaces (APIs) and network- accessible security services for authentication, single sign-on, authorization checking, and authorization policy management. The OpenAM access management technology designed for Web applications can be extended to meet the needs of Java thick clients and stand alone servers that are commonly used in the JPL AMMOS environment. The DISA-SS reusable components have greatly reduced the effort for each AMMOS subsystem to develop its own access control strategy. The novelty of this work is that it leverages an open-source access management product that was designed for Webbased applications to provide access control for Java thick clients and Java standalone servers. Thick clients and standalone servers are still commonly used in businesses and government, especially for applications that require rich graphical user interfaces and high-performance visualization that cannot be met by thin clients running on Web browser

Reversible colony formation and the associated costs in Scenedesmus obliquus

Grazer-induced colony formation is a common inducible defense strategy in microalgae against grazers, but the associated costs and reversibility of the colonies are rarely examined. Through experiments we showed that Scenedesmus obliquus formed chained colonies in the presence of a predator, but reverted to single cells after the removal of the predator. The stress indicators astaxanthin esters were present in the algal populations exposed to grazers. There were significant costs associated with colony formation in terms of lower population growth rate, lower photosystem II efficiency and lower cellular chlorophyll a content. Under these substantial costs the defense must be switched off and the colonies revert to single cells when the predation risk disappears

Correct-by-construction microarchitectural pipelining

This paper presents a method for correct-by-construction microarchitectural pipelining that handles cyclic systems with dependencies between iterations. Our method combines previously known bypass and retiming transformations with a few transformations valid only for elastic systems with early evaluation (namely, empty FIFO insertion, FIFO capacity sizing, insertion of anti-tokens, and introducing early evaluation multiplexors). By converting the design to a synchronous elastic form and then applying this extended set of transformations, one can pipeline a functional specification with an automatically generated distributed controller that implements stalling logic resolving data hazards off the critical path of the design. We have developed an interactive toolkit for exploring elastic microarchitectural transformations. The method is illustrated by pipelining a few simple examples of instruction set architecture ISA specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Creating opportunities to learn social skills at school using digital games

Acquiring skills for social and emotional well-being is important for inclusive societies and academic achievement. Studies have demonstrated the beneficial link between prosocial behaviours and improved results in curriculum topics. This paper describes a Prosocial Learning (PSL) process for creation and delivery of digital games for children (7-10 yrs) within educational systems that support learning of prosocial skills. The approach combines prosocial pedagogies with advanced ICT technologies and cloud delivery models to create attractive and exciting learning opportunities for children; produce novel digital game-based pedagogies and simplify deployment.Prosociality is a concept that refers to an individual’s propensity towards positive social behaviours. Individuals with prosocial skills are, for example, able to join in conversations, talk nicely, identifying feelings and emotions in themselves and others, identify someone needs help and ask for help. PSL classifies these skills in terms of Friendship, Feelings and Cooperation. By using interactive digital games supported by additional instructive and reflective activities, PSL allows children to learn social skills that can be generalised to real life situations in the classroom, playground and at home.PSL is implemented through a technology platform offering systematic pedagogical support for prosocial games developed by an ecosystem of teachers and games companies. Capabilities include multi-modal sensors to observe emotional affect, game interaction and decision-making. Information is acquired through standard protocols (e.g. xAPI) and evaluated by learning analytics algorithms to provide real-time feedback on player behaviours that are be used for in-game feedback and adaptation, and by teachers to shape follow-up activities. PSL is validated through short and longitudinal studies at European schools to gather evidence for effectiveness. This paper provides early evidence from short studies that will steer larger pan-European trials to test hypotheses, promote to policy makers and to increase adoption of game-based learning in school