Markov Chain Monte Carlo Significance Tests

Markov chain Monte Carlo significance tests were first introduced by Besag and Clifford in [4]. These methods produce statistical valid p-values in problems where sampling from the null hypotheses is intractable. We give an overview of the methods of Besag and Clifford and some recent developments. A range of examples and applications are discussed.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

The Uses of Indigenous Technical Knowledge in Development

SUMMARY Although ITK has for long been the subject of academic concern, it is only recently that interest has been shown in the possibility of harnessing it for the purpose of development. This paper reviews a selection of the literature, considers various accounts of the nature of such knowledge and describes some cases, including those—such as botanical knowledge and awareness of changes in eco?systems—in which ITK often has a comparative advantage. The paper considers alternative modes of interaction between such knowledge and organized science and their feasibility in various situations. Suggestions are made about how research can improve our understanding of ITK and enlarge its practical role in development activities. RESUME L'utilisation des connaissances techniques indigènes dans le développement Les universitaires s'intéressent depuis longtemps aux CTI (ITK), mais ce n'est que récemment qu'ils s'attachent à en tirer parti pour le développement. Cet article étudie une partie de la littérature existante, examine divers comptes?rendus sur le caractère de ces connaissances et décrit quelques secteurs, notamment ceux (connaissances botaniques, conscience de l'évolution des éco?systèmes) dans lesquels les CTI (ITK) ont une supériorité relative. L'article envisage divers modes d'interaction entre ces connaissances et la science organisée, ainsi que leur factibilité dans des situations diverses. Il étudie également la façon dont la recherche peut nous permettre de mieux comprendre les CTI (ITK) et de leur réserver un rôle plus important dans les activités de développement. RESUMEN Las aplicaciones del conocimiento técnico indígena en el desarrollo Aunque el conocimiento técnico indígena ha sido objeto de interés académico desde hace largo tiempo, sólo recientemente se ha demostrado dicho interés en la posibilidad de explotarlo para fines de desarrollo. En este artículo se indica una selección de elementos informativos, se estudian diversas relaciones del carácter de dicho conocimiento y se describe en algunos casos, incluyendo aquéllos en que el conocimiento técnico indígena tiene con frecuencia una ventaja relativa, tales como un conocimiento botánico y la constatación de cambios en los ecosistemas. En este artículo se examinan las modalidades alternativas de acción recíproca entre dicho conocimiento y la ciencia organizada y sus posibilidades en diversas situaciones. Se hacen sugerencias sobre la manera en que la investigación puede mejorar nuestro entendimiento del conocimiento técnico indígena y ampliarse su función práctica en las actividades del desarrollo

Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

AbstractAustralian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem.The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning; and, 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.Please cite this report as: Howes, M, Grant-Smith, D, Reis, K, Bosomworth, K, Tangney, P, Heazle, M, McEvoy, D, Burton, P 2013 Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 63.Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem.The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning; and, 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.&nbsp

Indigenous Technical Knowledge: Analysis, Implications and Issues

This review of the discussions of a workshop analyses indigenous technical knowledge (ITK), examines its potential for rural development, and outlines implications and issues. ITK is compared with institutionally organised science and technology. It can be seen in terms of stock and process: a rich but underutilised stock of knowledge; and the potential of processes through which knowledge can be generated, assimilated, and transmitted. Implications include the use of new methods for eliciting ITK, changes in the values and reward systems of professionals and officials concerned with rural development, and the need for further research and analysis

Why emergency management should be interested in the emergence of antibiotic resistance

Bacterial epidemics and pandemics are biological risks to life every bit as significant as floods, fires, storms and earthquakes. Antibiotics have been a significant tool in the management of epidemics and pandemics (as well as for fighting general infections) since their discovery in the 1930s. Due to the development of antibiotic resistance by bacteria, we are now approaching a post-antibiotic era where our capacity to manage infectious disease, particularly bacterial epidemics and pandemics, is compromised. Despite considerable efforts by global heath organisations, we need new ways of thinking and acting on the global risk of antibiotic resistance. We argue for a rebranding of the issue to one of a disaster risk and suggest the use of the risk management process and expertise of emergency management to present a new way of thinking about this globally significant risk to life

The design and control of mine refrigeration systems

The research is directed towards modelling the chiller set, the heat rejection and the load subsystems of a complete mine refrigeration system and simulating the performance in order that the design can be optimised and the most cost effective control system determined. The refrigeration load profile for a mechanised mine is complex and primarily a function of surface climatic variations, the strongly cyclic sources of heat resulting from the operation of diesel powered mining equipment and the associated differences in thermal environmental acceptance criteria. Modelling of the central element of the system, the compressor, is based on empirical relationships which use the actual cooling duty and input power rather than general compressor curves using theoretical flow and head coefficients. This has a more general application and is not restricted to a single compressor type. The steady state modelling of five refrigeration systems has included two types of compressor, four types of evaporator, three types of condenser, two types of cooling tower and five types of mine cooling appliances. The research has extended modelling of refrigeration systems by incorporating fully the heat rejection and load subsystems and has demonstrated that relatively complex mine refrigeration systems can be modelled and the simulation results related to actual measurements with an acceptable accuracy. This has been further improved by testing the system elements and adjusting the theoretical performance analysis where necessary. These adjustments concern either the more difficult to assess factors such as evaporating and condensing heat transfer coefficients or factors influenced by unusual operating conditions. The research has shown that, despite the complexity of the load profile and the refrigeration system, modelling and simulation can be used effectively to optimise both the design and the control system

The Antimicrobial Resistance Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Management

The Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) crisis is the increasing global incidence of infectious diseases affecting the human population, which are untreatable with any known antimicrobial agent. This crisis will have a devastating cost on human society as both debilitating and lethal diseases increase in frequency and scope. Three major factors determine this crisis: 1/ The increasing frequency of AMR phenotypes amongst microbes is an evolutionary response to the widespread use of antimicrobials. 2/ The large and globally connected human population allows pathogens in any environment access to all of humanity. 3/ The extensive and often unnecessary use of antimicrobials by humanity provides the strong selective pressure that is driving the evolutionary response in the microbial world. Of these factors, the size of the human population is least amenable to rapid change. In contrast the remaining two factors may be affected, so offering a means of managing the crisis: The rate at which AMR, as well as virulence factors evolve in microbial world may be slowed by reducing the applied selective pressure. This may be accomplished by radically reducing the global use of current and prospective antimicrobials. Current management measures to legislate the use of antimicrobials and to educate the healthcare world in the issues, while useful, have not comprehensively addressed the problem of achieving an overall reduction in the human use of antimicrobials. We propose that in addition to current measures and increased research into new antimicrobials and diagnostics, a comprehensive education programme will be required to change the public paradigm of antimicrobial usage from that of a first line treatment to that of a last resort when all other therapeutic options have failed

Key Technologies of the New Information Age

This was one of several Bridge Series seminar presentations conducted at the University of Gloucestershire in the 2002-2004 period, delivered in conjunction with Business Link, Gloucestershire. This presentation examines three technologies that were then considered key for organisations wishing to exploit the opportunities of the 'new information age' - XML, Broadband and handheld devices. These three technologies have all evolved considerably since then, but are still central to the IT deployment of most organisations. The key issues discussed are also relevant to the adoption of the newer generation of technologies now being debated in similar manner - the four so-called SMAC technologies (Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud), to which one could add a fifth - 3D printing. The issues facing IT managers challenged with adopting and assimilating these technologies are similar to those in evidence over a decade ago

The design and control of mine refrigeration systems

The research is directed towards modelling the chiller set, the heat rejection and the load subsystems of a complete mine refrigeration system and simulating the performance in order that the design can be optimised and the most cost effective control system determined. The refrigeration load profile for a mechanised mine is complex and primarily a function of surface climatic variations, the strongly cyclic sources of heat resulting from the operation of diesel powered mining equipment and the associated differences in thermal environmental acceptance criteria. Modelling of the central element of the system, the compressor, is based on empirical relationships which use the actual cooling duty and input power rather than general compressor curves using theoretical flow and head coefficients. This has a more general application and is not restricted to a single compressor type. The steady state modelling of five refrigeration systems has included two types of compressor, four types of evaporator, three types of condenser, two types of cooling tower and five types of mine cooling appliances. The research has extended modelling of refrigeration systems by incorporating fully the heat rejection and load subsystems and has demonstrated that relatively complex mine refrigeration systems can be modelled and the simulation results related to actual measurements with an acceptable accuracy. This has been further improved by testing the system elements and adjusting the theoretical performance analysis where necessary. These adjustments concern either the more difficult to assess factors such as evaporating and condensing heat transfer coefficients or factors influenced by unusual operating conditions. The research has shown that, despite the complexity of the load profile and the refrigeration system, modelling and simulation can be used effectively to optimise both the design and the control system