A hierarchical latent variable model for data visualization

Visualization has proven to be a powerful and widely-applicable tool the analysis and interpretation of data. Most visualization algorithms aim to find a projection from the data space down to a two-dimensional visualization space. However, for complex data sets living in a high-dimensional space it is unlikely that a single two-dimensional projection can reveal all of the interesting structure. We therefore introduce a hierarchical visualization algorithm which allows the complete data set to be visualized at the top level, with clusters and sub-clusters of data points visualized at deeper levels. The algorithm is based on a hierarchical mixture of latent variable models, whose parameters are estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We demonstrate the principle of the approach first on a toy data set, and then apply the algorithm to the visualization of a synthetic data set in 12 dimensions obtained from a simulation of multi-phase flows in oil pipelines and to data in 36 dimensions derived from satellite images

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA

Self-reported pain and disability outcomes from an endogenous model of muscular back pain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our purpose was to develop an induced musculoskeletal pain model of acute low back pain and examine the relationship among pain, disability and fear in this model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Delayed onset muscle soreness was induced in 52 healthy volunteers (23 women, 17 men; average age 22.4 years; average BMI 24.3) using fatiguing trunk extension exercise. Measures of pain intensity, unpleasantness, and location, and disability, were tracked for one week after exercise.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pain intensity ranged from 0 to 68 with 57.5% of participants reporting peak pain at 24 hours and 32.5% reporting this at 48 hours. The majority of participants reported pain in the low back with 33% also reporting pain in the legs. The ratio of unpleasantness to intensity indicated that the sensation was considered more unpleasant than intense. Statistical differences were noted in levels of reported disability between participants with and without leg pain.</p> <p>Pain intensity at 24 hours was correlated with pain unpleasantness, pain area and disability. Also, fear of pain was associated with pain intensity and unpleasantness. Disability was predicted by sex, presence of leg pain, and pain intensity; however, the largest amount of variance was explained by pain intensity (27% of a total 40%). The second model, predicting pain intensity only included fear of pain and explained less than 10% of the variance in pain intensity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results demonstrate a significant association between pain and disability in this model in young adults. However, the model is most applicable to patients with lower levels of pain and disability. Future work should include older adults to improve the external validity of this model.</p

Successional change in phosphorus stoichiometry explains the inverse relationship between herbivory and lupin density on Mount St. Helens

Background: The average nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio (N:P) of insect herbivores is less than that of leaves, suggesting that P may mediate plant-insect interactions more often than appreciated. We investigated whether succession-related heterogeneity in N and P stoichiometry influences herbivore performance on N-fixing lupin (Lupinus lepidus) colonizing primary successional volcanic surfaces, where the abundances of several specialist lepidopteran herbivores are inversely related to lupin density and are known to alter lupin colonization dynamics. We examined larval performance in response to leaf nutritional characteristics using gelechiid and pyralid leaf-tiers, and a noctuid leaf-cutter. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted four studies. First, growth of larvae raised on wild-collected leaves responded positively to leaf %P and negatively to leaf carbon (%C), but there was no effect of %N or quinolizidine alkaloids (QAs). Noctuid survival was also positively related to %P. Second, we raised gelechiid larvae on greenhouse-grown lupins with factorial manipulation of competitors and soil N and P. In the presence of competition, larval mass was highest at intermediate leaf N:P and high %P. Third, survival of gelechiid larvae placed on lupins in high-density patches was greater when plant competitors were removed than on controls. Fourth, surveys of field-collected leaves in 2000, 2002, and 2003 indicated that both %P and %N were generally greater in plants from low-density areas. QAs in plants from low-density areas were equal to or higher than QAs in high-density areas. Conclusions/Significance: Our results demonstrate that declines in lupin P content under competitive conditions are associated with decreased larval growth and survival sufficient to cause the observed negative relationship between herbivore abundance and host density. The results support the theoretical finding that declines in stoichiometric resource quality (caused here by succession) have the potential to cause a decrease in consumer abundance despite very dense quantities of the resource. © 2009 Apple et al

Pointing and Scanning Control of Optical Instruments using Rotating Unbalanced Masses

Correct pointing direction and scanning motions are essential in the operation of many flight payloads, such as balloon-borne telescopes and space-based X- ray and gamma-ray telescopes. Rotating unbalanced mass (RUM) devices have been recently proposed, implemented and successfully tested to produce a variety of scanning motions. Linear scans, raster scans, and circular scans have been successfully generated on a gimbaled payload using pairs of RUM devices. Theoretical analysis, computer simulations, and experiments have also been used to study the feasibility of using RUM devices to control instrument pointing direction, in addition to generating scanning motion. Dynamic modeling of a gimbaled payload equipped with a pair of RUM devices has been studied, and preliminary testing indicates that the pointing control is indeed feasible. However, there is also great potential for significant performance improvements through more advanced control system analysis, modeling and design. In this paper, modeling and control methods are described to achieve simultaneous scanning and pointing control of a gimbaled payload using rotating unbalance mass (RUM) devices. The model development work builds upon the results of Polites et al. and also some modeling approaches from robotics research. Results of some preliminary experiments are discussed and some nonlinear control methods will be proposed

Stability of behavioral estimates of activity-dependent modulation of pain

Temporal sensory summation of pain (TSSP) is a proxy measure of windup in humans and results in increased ratings of pain caused by a repetitive, low-frequency noxious stimulus. Aftersensations (ASs) are pain sensations that remain after TSSP has been induced. We examined the within-session and across-session variability in TSSP and AS estimation in healthy participants and in participants with exercise-induced muscle pain in order to determine whether the presence of pain affected the stability of TSSP and ASs. TSSP was estimated by application of 10 repetitive, low-frequency (<0.33 Hz) thermal pulses and measured by the simple slope of pain ratings between the first and fifth pulses. ASs were measured by the presence of any remaining pain sensations up to 1 minute after TSSP was induced. TSSP estimation remained moderately stable in pain-free participants and in participants with pain within a single testing session but demonstrated low stability across sessions in pain-free participants. AS estimation was stable for all groups. Estimation of TSSP and ASs using these protocols appears to be a reliable single-session outcome measure in studies of interventions for acute muscle pain and in experimental studies with healthy participants. This article evaluates the reliability of a commonly used method of estimating TSSP and ASs in both healthy participants and in a clinically relevant model of acute pain. These protocols have the potential to be used as single-session outcome measures for interventional studies and in experimental studies

Sympathetic nervous regulation of calcium and action potential alternans in the intact heart

Rationale: Arrhythmogenic cardiac alternans are thought to be an important determinant for the initiation of ventricular fibrillation. There is limited information on the effects of sympathetic nerve stimulation (SNS) on alternans in the intact heart and the conclusions of existing studies, focused on investigating electrical alternans, are conflicted. Meanwhile, several lines of evidence implicate instabilities in Ca handling, not electrical restitution, as the primary mechanism underpinning alternans. Despite this, there have been no studies on Ca alternans and SNS in the intact heart. The present study sought to address this, by application of voltage and Ca optical mapping for the simultaneous study of APD and Ca alternans in the intact guinea pig heart during direct SNS. Objective: To determine the effects of SNS on APD and Ca alternans in the intact guinea pig heart and to examine the mechanism(s) by which the effects of SNS are mediated. Methods and Results: Studies utilized simultaneous voltage and Ca optical mapping in isolated guinea pig hearts with intact innervation. Alternans were induced using a rapid dynamic pacing protocol. SNS was associated with rate-independent shortening of action potential duration (APD) and the suppression of APD and Ca alternans, as indicated by a shift in the alternans threshold to faster pacing rates. Qualitatively similar results were observed with exogenous noradrenaline perfusion. In co ntrast with previous reports, both SNS and noradrenaline acted to flatten the slope of the electrical restitution curve. Pharmacological block of the slow delayed rectifying potassium current (I Ks ), sufficient to abolish I Ks -mediated APD-adaptation, partially reversed the effects of SNS on pacing-induced alternans. Treatment with cyclopiazonic acid, an inhibitor of the sarco(endo)plasmic reticulum ATPase, had opposite effects to that of SNS, acting to increase susceptibility to alternans, and suggesting that accelerated Ca reuptake into the sarcoplasmic reticulum is a major mechanism by which SNS suppresses alternans in the guinea pig heart. Conclusions: SNS suppresses calcium and action potential alternans in the intact guinea pig heart by an action mediated through accelerated Ca handling and via increased I Ks

Updating the Kentucky Contract Time Determination System

The Federal Highway Administration requires State Transportation Agencies to have a formal method to estimate contract time for highway construction projects. To meet this requirement many states use an integrated scheduling system to estimate project durations based on assumed productivity rates and generic job logic. The current work investigated the accuracy of two of these systems found that both systems accuracy in predicting the duration of Kentucky Transportation Cabinet projects was greater than +200%. In response to this poor accuracy, a parametric project duration estimating tool was developed based on a multivariate regression analysis of bid item quantities and engineering and construction estimate. Five regression models were develop to estimate contract time for large projects (great than $1,000,000) based on key bid item quantities; limited access (+22$1,000,000) as it appears that the duration of small projects is determined by factors outside of bid item quantities

The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs