Sharing the burden: monetary and fiscal responses to a world liquidity trap

With integrated trade and financial markets, a collapse in aggregate demand in a large country can cause "natural real interest rates" to fall below zero in all countries, giving rise to a global "liquidity trap." This paper explores the optimal policy response to this type of shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand shock requires raising world aggregate demand, as well as redirecting demand towards the source (home) country. ; The key feature of demand shocks in a liquidity trap is that relative prices respond perversely. A negative shock causes an appreciation of the home terms of trade, exacerbating the slump in the home country. At the zero bound, the home country cannot counter this shock. Because of this, it may be optimal for the foreign policymaker to raise interest rates. ; Strikingly, the foreign country may choose to have a positive policy interest rate, even though its natural real interest rate is below zero. A combination of relatively tight monetary policy in the foreign country combined with substantial fiscal expansion in the home country achieves the desired mix in terms of the level and composition of world expenditure. Thus, in response to conditions generating a global liquidity trap, there is a critical mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; Interest rates

AGROINDUSTRIALIZATION IN EMERGING MARKETS: OVERVIEW AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT

This article offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization. It reviews eleven articles analyzing the agroindustrialization process in Latin America and Asia. It sets out a conceptual framework from the organizational economics and strategic management literature to enhance the understanding of the process of agroindustrialization from a competitive strategy point of view.Agribusiness, Industrial Organization,

Exotic Meson Decay Widths using Lattice QCD

A decay width calculation for a hybrid exotic meson h, with JPC=1-+, is presented for the channel h->pi+a1. This quenched lattice QCD simulation employs Luescher's finite box method. Operators coupling to the h and pi+a1 states are used at various levels of smearing and fuzzing, and at four quark masses. Eigenvalues of the corresponding correlation matrices yield energy spectra that determine scattering phase shifts for a discrete set of relative pi+a1 momenta. Although the phase shift data is sparse, fits to a Breit-Wigner model are attempted, resulting in a decay width of about 60 MeV when averaged over two lattice sizes.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, RevTex4, minor change to Fig.

Is birthweight associated with total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer risks? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesised that intrauterine exposures are important for subsequent prostate cancer risk. Prior epidemiological studies have used birthweight as a proxy of cumulative intrauterine exposures to test this hypothesis, but results have been inconsistent partly because of limited statistical power. METHODS: We investigated birthweight in relation to prostate cancer in the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) using Cox proportional hazards models. We then conducted a meta-analysis of birthweight in relation to total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer risks, combining results from the NSHD analysis with 13 additional studies on this relationship identified from a systematic search in four major scientific literature databases through January 2015. RESULTS: Random-effects models found that per kg increase in birthweight was positively associated with total (OR=1.02, 95% confidence interval (95% CI)=1.00, 1.05; I(2)=13%) and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer (OR=1.08, 95% CI=0.99, 1.19; I(2)=40%). Sensitivity analyses restricted to studies with birthweight extracted from medical records demonstrated stronger positive associations with total (OR=1.11, 95% CI=1.03, 1.19; I(2)=0%) and aggressive/lethal (OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.09, 1.74; I(2)=0%) prostate cancer. These studies heavily overlapped with those based in Nordic countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that heavier birthweight may be associated with modest increased risks of total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer, which supports the hypothesis that intrauterine exposures may be related to subsequent prostate cancer risks

Cognitive consequences of clumsy automation on high workload, high consequence human performance

The growth of computational power has fueled attempts to automate more of the human role in complex problem solving domains, especially those where system faults have high consequences and where periods of high workload may saturate the performance capacity of human operators. Examples of these domains include flightdecks, space stations, air traffic control, nuclear power operation, ground satellite control rooms, and surgical operating rooms. Automation efforts may have unanticipated effects on human performance, particularly if they increase the workload at peak workload times or change the practitioners' strategies for coping with workload. Smooth and effective changes in automation requires detailed understanding of the congnitive tasks confronting the user: it has been called user centered automation. The introduction of a new computerized technology in a group of hospital operating rooms used for heart surgery was observed. The study revealed how automation, especially 'clumsy automation', effects practitioner work patterns and suggest that clumsy automation constrains users in specific and significant ways. Users tailor both the new system and their tasks in order to accommodate the needs of process and production. The study of this tailoring may prove a powerful tool for exposing previously hidden patterns of user data processing, integration, and decision making which may, in turn, be useful in the design of more effective human-machine systems

Dispersion in Neptune's Zonal Wind Velocities from NIR Keck AO Observations in July 2009

We report observations of Neptune made in H-(1.4-1.8 {\mu}m) and K'-(2.0-2.4 {\mu}m) bands on 14 and 16 July 2009 from the 10-m W.M. Keck II Telescope using the near-infrared camera NIRC2 coupled to the Adaptive Optics (AO) system. We track the positions of 54 bright atmospheric features over a few hours to derive their zonal and latitudinal velocities, and perform radiative transfer modeling to measure the cloud-top pressures of 50 features seen simultaneously in both bands. We observe one South Polar Feature (SPF) on 14 July and three SPFs on 16 July at ~65 deg S. The SPFs observed on both nights are different features, consistent with the high variability of Neptune's storms. There is significant dispersion in Neptune's zonal wind velocities about the smooth Voyager wind profile fit of Sromovsky et al., Icarus 105, 140 (1993), much greater than the upper limit we expect from vertical wind shear, with the largest dispersion seen at equatorial and southern mid-latitudes. Comparison of feature pressures vs. residuals in zonal velocity from the smooth Voyager wind profile also directly reveals the dominance of mechanisms over vertical wind shear in causing dispersion in the zonal winds. Vertical wind shear is not the primary cause of the difference in dispersion and deviation in zonal velocities between features tracked in H-band on 14 July and those tracked in K'-band on 16 July. Dispersion in the zonal velocities of features tracked over these short time periods is dominated by one or more mechanisms, other than vertical wind shear, that can cause changes in the dispersion and deviation in the zonal velocities on timescales of hours to days.Comment: 31 pages, 13 Figures, 3 Tables, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

A demonstration of motion base design alternatives for the National Advanced Driving Simulator

A demonstration of the capability of NASA's Vertical Motion Simulator to simulate two alternative motion base designs for the National Advanced Driving simulator (NADS) is reported. The VMS is located at ARC. The motion base conditions used in this demonstration were as follows: (1) a large translational motion base; and (2) a motion base design with limited translational capability. The latter had translational capability representative of a typical synergistic motion platform. These alternatives were selected to test the prediction that large amplitude translational motion would result in a lower incidence or severity of simulator induced sickness (SIS) than would a limited translational motion base. A total of 10 drivers performed two tasks, slaloms and quick-stops, using each of the motion bases. Physiological, objective, and subjective measures were collected. No reliable differences in SIS between the motion base conditions was found in this demonstration. However, in light of the cost considerations and engineering challenges associated with implementing a large translation motion base, performance of a formal study is recommended

High-accuracy comparison of numerical relativity simulations with post-Newtonian expansions

Numerical simulations of 15 orbits of an equal-mass binary black hole system are presented. Gravitational waveforms from these simulations, covering more than 30 cycles and ending about 1.5 cycles before merger, are compared with those from quasi-circular zero-spin post-Newtonian (PN) formulae. The cumulative phase uncertainty of these comparisons is about 0.05 radians, dominated by effects arising from the small residual spins of the black holes and the small residual orbital eccentricity in the simulations. Matching numerical results to PN waveforms early in the run yields excellent agreement (within 0.05 radians) over the first $\sim 15$ cycles, thus validating the numerical simulation and establishing a regime where PN theory is accurate. In the last 15 cycles to merger, however, {\em generic} time-domain Taylor approximants build up phase differences of several radians. But, apparently by coincidence, one specific post-Newtonian approximant, TaylorT4 at 3.5PN order, agrees much better with the numerical simulations, with accumulated phase differences of less than 0.05 radians over the 30-cycle waveform. Gravitational-wave amplitude comparisons are also done between numerical simulations and post-Newtonian, and the agreement depends on the post-Newtonian order of the amplitude expansion: the amplitude difference is about 6--7% for zeroth order and becomes smaller for increasing order. A newly derived 3.0PN amplitude correction improves agreement significantly ($<1$ amplitude difference throughout most of the run, increasing to 4% near merger) over the previously known 2.5PN amplitude terms.Comment: Updated to agree with published version (various minor clarifications; added description of AH finder in Sec IIB; added discussion of tidal heating in Sec VC

Directed polymers in high dimensions

We study directed polymers subject to a quenched random potential in d transversal dimensions. This system is closely related to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation of nonlinear stochastic growth. By a careful analysis of the perturbation theory we show that physical quantities develop singular behavior for d to 4. For example, the universal finite size amplitude of the free energy at the roughening transition is proportional to (4-d)^(1/2). This shows that the dimension d=4 plays a special role for this system and points towards d=4 as the upper critical dimension of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang problem.Comment: 37 pages REVTEX including 4 PostScript figure

Simple guide to starting a research group

Conducting cutting-edge research and scholarship becomes more complicated with each passing year; forming a collaborative research group offers a way to navigate this increasing complexity. Yet many individuals whose work might benefit from the formation of a collaborative team may feel overwhelmed by the prospect of attempting to build and maintain a research group. We propose this simple guide for starting and maintaining such an enterprise