On the Applicability of Temperature and Precipitation Data from CMIP3 for China

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and are widely used in global change research. This paper assesses the performance of the AR4 GCMs in simulating precipitation and temperature in China from 1960 to 1999 by comparison with observed data, using system bias (B), root-mean-square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (E) metrics. Probability density functions (PDFs) are also fitted to the outputs of each model. It is shown that the performance of each GCM varies to different degrees across China. Based on the skill score derived from the four metrics, it is suggested that GCM 15 (ipsl_cm4) and GCM 3 (cccma_cgcm_t63) provide the best representations of temperature and precipitation, respectively, in terms of spatial distribution and trend over 10 years. The results also indicate that users should apply carefully the results of annual precipitation and annual temperature generated by AR4 GCMs in China due to poor performance. At a finer scale, the four metrics are also used to obtain best fit scores for ten river basins covering mainland China. Further research is proposed to improve the simulation accuracy of the AR4 GCMs regarding China

Erosion-induced CO2 flux of small watersheds

Soil erosion not only results in severe ecological damage, but also interferes with soil organic carbon formation and decomposition, influencing the global green-house effect. However, there is controversy as to whether a typical small watershed presumed as the basic unit of sediment yield acts as a CO2 sink or source. This paper proposes a discriminant equation for the direction of CO2 flux in small watersheds, basing on the concept of Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR). Using this equation, watersheds can be classified as Sink Watersheds, Source Watersheds, or Transition Watersheds, noting that small watersheds can act either as a CO2 sink or as a CO2 source. A mathematical model for calculating the two discriminant coefficients in the equation is set up to analyze the conditions under which each type of watershed would occur. After assigning the model parameter values at three levels (low, medium, and high), and considering 486 scenarios in total, the influences are examined for turnover rate of the carbon pool, erosion rate, deposition rate, cultivation depth and period. The effect of adopting conservation measures like residue return, contour farming, terracing, and conservation tillage is also analyzed. The results show that Sink Watersheds are more likely to result in conditions of high erosion rate, long cultivation period, high deposition rate, fast carbon pool turnover rate, and small depth of cultivation; otherwise, Source Watersheds would possibly occur. The results also indicate that residue return and conservation tillage are beneficial for CO2 sequestration. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Geography, PhysicalGeosciences, MultidisciplinarySCI(E)EI0ARTICLE101-11094-9

Spatiotemporal variations in vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau, China, between 1982 and 2013: possible causes and potential impacts

Vegetation is a key component of the ecosystem and plays an important role in water retention and resistance to soil erosion. In this study, we used a multiyear normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset (1982-2013) and corresponding datasets for observed climatic variables to analyze changes in the NDVI at both temporal and spatial scales. The relationships between NDVI, climate change, and human activities were also investigated. The annual average NDVI showed an upward trend over the 32-year study period, especially in the center of the Loess Plateau. NDVI variations lagged behind monthly temperature changes by approximately 1 month. The contribution of human activities to variations in NDVI has become increasingly significant in recent years, with human activities responsible for 30.4% of the change in NDVI during the period 2001-2013. The increased vegetation coverage has reduced soil erosion on the Loess Plateau in recent years. It is suggested that natural restoration of vegetation is the most effective measure for control of erosion; engineering measures that promote this should feature in the future governance of the Loess Plateau

Environmental impact assessments of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the most hyperconcentrated laden river, Yellow River, China

The Yellow River is the most hyperconcentrated sediment-laden river in the world. Throughout recorded history, the Lower Yellow River (LYR) experienced many catastrophic flood and drought events. To regulate the LYR, a reservoir was constructed at Xiaolangdi that became operational in the early 2000s. An annual water-sediment regulation scheme (WSRS) was then implemented, aimed at flood control, sediment reduction, regulated water supply, and power generation. This study examines the eco-environmental and socioenvironmental impacts of Xiaolangdi Reservoir. In retrospect, it is found that the reservoir construction phase incurred huge financial cost and required large-scale human resettlement. Subsequent reservoir operations affected the local geological environment, downstream riverbed erosion, evolution of the Yellow River delta, water quality, and aquatic biodiversity. Lessons from the impact assessment of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir are summarized as follows: (1) The construction of large reservoirs is not merely an engineering challenge but must also be viewed in terms of resource exploitation, environmental protection, and social development; (2) long-term systems for monitoring large reservoirs should be established, and decision makers involved at national policy and planning levels must be prepared to react quickly to the changing impact of large reservoirs; and (3) the key to solving sedimentation in the LYR is not Xiaolangdi Reservoir but instead soil conservation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Proper assessment of the impacts of large reservoirs will help promote development strategies that enhance the long-term sustainability of dam projects

China’s policy on dams at the crossroads: removal or further construction?

During the past century, the number and scale of reservoirs worldwide has grown substantially to meet the demand for water and hydropower arising from increased population, industrialization, and urbanization. This is particularly the case in China, where reservoir construction increased rapidly after the Chinese economic reform and the introduction of open-door policies. On average, 4.4 large reservoirs with a capacity greater than 0.1 km3 were constructed per annum during the 1970s–1990s. This average reached 11.8 such reservoirs per annum in the 2000s. Considering the adverse impact of dams on rivers and riparian communities, various environmentalists and non-governmental organizations in China have begun to protest against the construction of dams. Now China’s policy on dams is at a crossroads: Removal or further construction? In this paper, we systematically assess the construction of reservoirs in China and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of large-scale reservoir projects on several major rivers in China: The Yangtze River, the Yellow River and the Mekong River. Lastly, we provide a perspective on the future of reservoir development in China, taking into account natural conditions, renewable hydropower resources, and greenhouse gas emissions

Wavelet-based variability of Yellow River discharge at 500-. 100-, and 50-year timescales

Water scarcity in the Yellow River, China, has become increasingly severe over the past half century. In this paper, wavelet transform analysis was used to detect the variability of natural, observed, and reconstructed streamflow in the Yellow River at 500-, 100-, and 50-year timescales. The periodicity of the streamflow series and the co-varying relationships between streamflow and atmospheric circulation indices/sunspot number were assessed by means of continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analyses. The CWT results showed intermittent oscillations in streamflow with increasing periodicities of 1–6 years at all timescales. Significant multidecadal and century-scale periodicities were identified in the 500-year streamflow series. The WTC results showed intermittent interannual covariance of streamflow with atmospheric circulation indices and sunspots. At the 50-year timescale, there were significant decadal oscillations between streamflow and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and bidecadal oscillations with the PDO. At the 100-year timescale, there were significant decadal oscillations between streamflow and Niño 3.4, the AO, and sunspots. At the 500-year timescale, streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River showed prominent covariance with the AO with an approximately 32-year periodicity, and with sunspots with an approximately 80-year periodicity. Atmospheric circulation indices modulate streamflow by affecting temperature and precipitation. Sunspots impact streamflow variability by influencing atmospheric circulation, resulting in abundant precipitation. In general, for both the CWT and the WTC results, the periodicities were spatially continuous, with a few gradual changes from upstream to downstream resulting from the varied topography and runoff. At the temporal scale, the periodicities were generally continuous over short timescales and discontinuous over longer timescales

A preliminary estimate of human and natural contributions to the changes in water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River

Water discharge and sediment load have changed continuously during the last half century in the Yellow River basin, China. In the present paper, data from 7 river gauging stations and 175 meteorological stations are analyzed in order to estimate quantitatively the contributions of human activities and climate change to hydrological response. Coefficients of water discharge (C(w)) and sediment load (C(s)) are calculated for the baseline period of 1950s-1960s according to the correlations between the respective hydrological series and regional precipitation. Consequently, the natural water discharge and natural sediment load time series are reconstructed from 1960s-2008. Inter-annual impacts are then separated from the impacts of human activities and climate change on the hydrological response of different regions of the Yellow River basin. It is found that human activities have the greatest influence on changes to the hydrological series of water discharge and sediment load, no matter whether the effect is negative or positive. Moreover, the impact of human activities is considerably greater on water discharge than sediment load. During 1970-2008. climate change and human activities respectively contribute 17% and 83% to the reduction in water discharge, and 14% and 86% to the reduction in sediment yield in the Upper reaches of Yellow River basin; The corresponding relative contributions in the Middle reaches are 71% and 29% to reductions in water discharge. and 48% and 52% to reductions in sediment load. Moreover, it is observed that the impacts of human activities on the whole basin are enhanced with time. In the 2000s. the impact of human activities exceeds that of climate change in the 2000s, with human activities directly responsible for 55% and 54% of the reductions in water discharge and sediment load in the whole basin. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Geography, PhysicalGeosciences, MultidisciplinarySCI(E)EI50ARTICLE3-4196-2057

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