Is a matrix exponential specification suitable for the modeling of spatial correlation structures?

This paper investigates the adequacy of the matrix exponential spatial specifications (MESS) as an alternative to the widely used spatial autoregressive models (SAR). To provide as complete a picture as possible, we extend the analysis to all the main spatial models governed by matrix exponentials comparing them with their spatial autoregressive counterparts. We propose a new implementation of Bayesian parameter estimation for the MESS model with vague prior distributions, which is shown to be precise and computationally efficient. Our implementations also account for spatially lagged regressors. We further allow for location-specific heterogeneity, which we model by including spatial splines. We conclude by comparing the performances of the different model specifications in applications to a real data set and by running simulations. Both the applications and the simulations suggest that the spatial splines are a flexible and efficient way to account for spatial heterogeneities governed by unknown mechanisms

Estimation of vaccine efficacy in a repeated measures study under heterogeneity of exposure or susceptibility to infection

Vaccine efficacy (VE) is commonly estimated through proportional hazards modelling of the time to first infection or disease, even when the event of interest can recur. These methods can result in biased estimates when VE is heterogeneous across levels of exposure and susceptibility in subjects. These two factors are important sources of unmeasured heterogeneity, since they vary within and across areas, and often cannot be individually quantified. We propose an estimator of VE per exposure that accounts for heterogeneous susceptibility and exposure for a repeated measures study with binary recurrent outcomes. The estimator requires only information about the probability distribution of environmental exposures. Through simulation studies, we compare the properties of this estimator with proportional hazards estimation under the heterogeneity of exposure. The methods are applied to a reanalysis of a malaria vaccine trial in Brazil

Development, validity and reliability of the Italian version of the Copenhagen neck functional disability scale

BACKGROUND: Valid and reliable patient-reported outcome measures support health professionals in evaluating the results of clinical research and practice. The Copenhagen Neck Functional Disability Scale (CNFDS) has shown promising measurement properties to measure disability in patients with neck pain, but an Italian version of this questionnaire is not available. The objective of this study was to cross-culturally adapt the CNFDS into Italian (CNFDS-I), and to assess its validity and reliability in patients with neck pain. METHODS: The CNFDS-I was developed according to well-established guidelines for cross-cultural adaptation of patient-reported outcome measures. A cross-sectional clinimetric study was conducted to evaluate its v

Rolling Motion Along an Incline: Visual Sensitivity to the Relation Between Acceleration and Slope

People easily intercept a ball rolling down an incline, despite its acceleration varies with the slope in a complex manner. Apparently, however, they are poor at detecting anomalies when asked to judge artificial animations of descending motion. Since the perceptual deficiencies have been reported in studies involving a limited visual context, here we tested the hypothesis that judgments of naturalness of rolling motion are consistent with physics when the visual scene incorporates sufficient cues about environmental reference and metric scale, roughly comparable to those present when intercepting a ball. Participants viewed a sphere rolling down an incline located in the median sagittal plane, presented in 3D wide-field virtual reality. In different experiments, either the slope of the plane or the sphere acceleration were changed in arbitrary combinations, resulting in a kinematics that was either consistent or inconsistent with physics. In Experiment 1 (slope adjustment), participants were asked to modify the slope angle until the resulting motion looked natural for a given ball acceleration. In Experiment 2 (acceleration adjustment), instead, they were asked to modify the acceleration until the motion on a given slope looked natural. No feedback about performance was provided. For both experiments, we found that participants were rather accurate at finding the match between slope angle and ball acceleration congruent with physics, but there was a systematic effect of the initial conditions: accuracy was higher when the participants started the exploration from the combination of slope and acceleration corresponding to the congruent conditions than when they started far away from the congruent conditions. In Experiment 3, participants modified the slope angle based on an adaptive staircase, but the target never coincided with the starting condition. Here we found a generally accurate performance, irrespective of the target slope. We suggest that, provided the visual scene includes sufficient cues about environmental reference and metric scale, joint processing of slope and acceleration may facilitate the detection of natural motion. Perception of rolling motion may rely on the kind of approximate, probabilistic simulations of Newtonian mechanics that have previously been called into play to explain complex inferences in rich visual scenes

A Bayesian Factor Model for Spatial Panel Data with a Separable Covariance Approach

A hierarchical Bayesian factor model for multivariate spatially and temporally correlated data is proposed. This method searches factor scores incorporating a dependence within observations due to both a geographical and a temporal structure and it is an extension of a model proposed by Mezzetti (2012) using the results of a separable covariance matrix for the spatial panel data as in Leorato and Mezzetti (2016). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is implemented to sample from the posterior distributions. We illustrate the benefit and the performance of our model by analyzing death rates for different diseases together with some socio-economical and behavioural indicators and by analyzing simulated data

Monte Carlo methods for nonparametric survival model determination

Processes, Gamma processes, Hierarchical partitions models, Survival analysis,

Modeling psychophysical data at the population-level: the generalized linear mixed model

Moscatelli A, Mezzetti M, Lacquaniti F. Modeling psychophysical data at the population-level: the generalized linear mixed model. Journal of Vision. 2012;12(11):1-17

A Bayesian approach to model individual differences and to partition individuals: case studies in growth and learning curves

The first objective of the paper is to implement a two stage Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear model for growth and learning curves, particular cases of longitudinal data with an underlying nonlinear time dependence. The aim is to model simultaneously individual trajectories over time, each with specific and potentially different characteristics, and a time-dependent behavior shared among individuals, including eventual effect of covariates. At the first stage inter-individual differences are taken into account, while, at the second stage, we search for an average model. The second objective is to partition individuals into homogeneous groups, when inter individual parameters present high level of heterogeneity. A new multivariate partitioning approach is proposed to cluster individuals according to the posterior distributions of the parameters describing the individual time-dependent behaviour. To assess the proposed methods, we present simulated data and two applications to real data, one related to growth curve modeling in agriculture and one related to learning curves for motor skills. Furthermore a comparison with finite mixture analysis is shown