The Iowa caucuses: Effects of presidential campaigns on state politicians

The Iowa caucuses have been a topic of fascination for many political scientists, the media, and political junkies. Their prominent nature attracts media from all over the United States and can significantly impact the day-to-day lives of Iowans. In studying this topic, close attention must be paid to how campaigns necessarily treat elected state officials differently than ordinary Iowans. More specifically, legislators are treated differently in the processes by which campaigns lobby state legislators for support, the benefits officials receive, and the ways in which such lobbying can detract from their roles as state legislators. All of these factors are necessary to understanding how state politicians are affected by the Iowa caucuses. Also of note are the varying levels of influence constituents have on their legislator’s decision to support a particular candidate

Animal Cell Differentiation Patterns Suppress Somatic Evolution

Cell differentiation in multicellular organisms has the obvious function during development of creating new cell types. However, in long-lived organisms with extensive cell turnover, cell differentiation often continues after new cell types are no longer needed or produced. Here, we address the question of why this is true. It is believed that multicellular organisms could not have arisen or been evolutionarily stable without possessing mechanisms to suppress somatic selection among cells within organisms, which would otherwise disrupt organismal integrity. Here, we propose that one such mechanism is a specific pattern of ongoing cell differentiation commonly found in metazoans with cell turnover, which we call “serial differentiation.” This pattern involves a sequence of differentiation stages, starting with self-renewing somatic stem cells and proceeding through several (non–self-renewing) transient amplifying cell stages before ending with terminally differentiated cells. To test the hypothesis that serial differentiation can suppress somatic evolution, we used an agent-based computer simulation of cell population dynamics and evolution within tissues. The results indicate that, relative to other, simpler patterns, tissues organized into serial differentiation experience lower rates of detrimental cell-level evolution. Self-renewing cell populations are susceptible to somatic evolution, while those that are not self-renewing are not. We find that a mutation disrupting differentiation can create a new self-renewing cell population that is vulnerable to somatic evolution. These results are relevant not only to understanding the evolutionary origins of multicellularity, but also the causes of pathologies such as cancer and senescence in extant metazoans, including humans

Developing Community Reinforcement and Family Training (CRAFT) for Parents of Treatment-Resistant Adolescents.

We describe a project focused on training parents to facilitate their treatment-resistant adolescent\u27s treatment entry and to manage their child after entry into community-based treatment. Controlled studies show that Community Reinforcement and Family Training (CRAFT) is a unilateral treatment that fosters treatment entry of adults; however, there are no controlled trials for parents with a substance-abusing child. We examined the behavioral parent training literature to guide us in tailoring CRAFT for parents of adolescents. We discuss adaptations to CRAFT, outcomes and experiences gained from a brief pilot of the revised CRAFT program, and the future directions of this work

Sibling comparisons elucidate the associations between educational attainment polygenic scores and alcohol, nicotine and cannabis.

Background and aimsThe associations between low educational attainment and substance use disorders (SUDs) may be related to a common genetic vulnerability. We aimed to elucidate the associations between polygenic scores for educational attainment and clinical criterion counts for three SUDs (alcohol, nicotine and cannabis).DesignPolygenic association and sibling comparison methods. The latter strengthens inferences in observational research by controlling for confounding factors that differ between families.SettingSix sites in the United States.ParticipantsEuropean ancestry participants aged 25 years and older from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). Polygenic association analyses included 5582 (54% female) participants. Sibling comparisons included 3098 (52% female) participants from 1226 sibling groups nested within the overall sample.MeasurementsOutcomes included criterion counts for DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUDSX), Fagerström nicotine dependence (NDSX) and DSM-5 cannabis use disorder (CUDSX). We derived polygenic scores for educational attainment (EduYears-GPS) using summary statistics from a large (> 1 million) genome-wide association study of educational attainment.FindingsIn polygenic association analyses, higher EduYears-GPS predicted lower AUDSX, NDSX and CUDSX [P < 0.01, effect sizes (R2 ) ranging from 0.30 to 1.84%]. These effects were robust in sibling comparisons, where sibling differences in EduYears-GPS predicted all three SUDs (P < 0.05, R2 0.13-0.20%).ConclusionsIndividuals who carry more alleles associated with educational attainment tend to meet fewer clinical criteria for alcohol, nicotine and cannabis use disorders, and these effects are robust to rigorous controls for potentially confounding factors that differ between families (e.g. socio-economic status, urban-rural residency and parental education)

The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States

Background: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States (US). Methods: We developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, while children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection, and specified 10% pre-existing population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current non-pharmaceutical interventions in the US. Results: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% CrI: 4.3% - 5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4% - 9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-ICU hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3% - 66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2% - 68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5% - 73.1%), respectively, across the same period. Conclusions: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.Integrative Biolog

Who, What, When, Where, Why? Comparing Multiple Approaches to the Cross-Lingual 5W Task

Cross-lingual tasks are especially difficult due to the compounding effect of errors in language processing and errors in machine translation (MT). In this paper, we present an error analysis of a new cross-lingual task: the 5W task, a sentence-level understanding task which seeks to return the English 5W's (Who, What, When, Where and Why) corresponding to a Chinese sentence. We analyze systems that we developed, identifying specific problems in language processing and MT that cause errors. The best cross-lingual 5W system was still 19% worse than the best monolingual 5W system, which shows that MT significantly degrades sentence-level understanding. Neither source-language nor target-language analysis was able to circumvent problems in MT, although each approach had advantages relative to the other. A detailed error analysis across multiple systems suggests directions for future research on the problem

Improving stamina and mobility with preop walking in surgical patients with frailty traits -OASIS IV: randomized clinical trial study protocol

BACKGROUND: Frail older surgical patients face more than a two-fold increase in postoperative complications, including myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, pneumonia, ileus, and others. Many of these complications occur because of postoperative loss of stamina and poor mobility. Preoperative exercise may better prepare these vulnerable patients for surgery. We present the protocol for our ongoing randomized trial to assess the impact of a preoperative walking intervention with remote coaching and pedometer on outcomes of stamina (six-minute walk distance- 6MWD) and mobility (postoperative steps) in older adults with frailty traits. METHODS: We will be conducting a randomized clinical trial with a total of 120 patients permitting up to a 33% rate of attrition, to reach a final sample size of 80 (with 40 patients for each study arm). We will include patients who are age 60 or higher, score 4 or greater on the Edmonton Frailty Scale assessment, and will be undergoing a surgical operation that requires a 2 or more night hospital stay to be eligible for our trial. Using block randomization stratified on baseline 6MWD, we will assign patients to wear a pedometer. At the end of three baseline days, an athletic trainer (AT) will provide a daily step count goal reflecting a 10-20% increase from baseline. Subsequently, the AT will call weekly to further titrate the goal or calls more frequently if the patient is not meeting the prescribed goal. Controls will receive general walking advice. Our main outcome is change in 6MWD on postoperative day (POD) 2/3 vs. baseline. We will also collect 6MWD approximately 4 weeks after surgery and daily in-hospital steps. CONCLUSION: If changes in a 6MWD and step counts are significantly higher for the intervention group, we believe this will confirm our hypothesis that the intervention leads to decreased loss of stamina and mobility. Once confirmed, we anticipate expanding to multiple centers to assess the interventional impact on clinical endpoints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The randomized clinical trial was registered on clinicaltrials.gov under the identifier NCT03892187 on March 27, 2019

Resequencing Candidate Genes Implicates Rare Variants in Asthma Susceptibility

Common variation in over 100 genes has been implicated in the risk of developing asthma, but the contribution of rare variants to asthma susceptibility remains largely unexplored. We selected nine genes that showed the strongest signatures of weak purifying selection from among 53 candidate asthma-associated genes, and we sequenced the coding exons and flanking noncoding regions in 450 asthmatic cases and 515 nonasthmatic controls. We observed an overall excess of p values <0.05 (p = 0.02), and rare variants in four genes (AGT, DPP10, IKBKAP, and IL12RB1) contributed to asthma susceptibility among African Americans. Rare variants in IL12RB1 were also associated with asthma susceptibility among European Americans, despite the fact that the majority of rare variants in IL12RB1 were specific to either one of the populations. The combined evidence of association with rare noncoding variants in IL12RB1 remained significant (p = 3.7 × 10−4) after correcting for multiple testing. Overall, the contribution of rare variants to asthma susceptibility was predominantly due to noncoding variants in sequences flanking the exons, although nonsynonymous rare variants in DPP10 and in IL12RB1 were associated with asthma in African Americans and European Americans, respectively. This study provides evidence that rare variants contribute to asthma susceptibility. Additional studies are required for testing whether prioritizing genes for resequencing on the basis of signatures of purifying selection is an efficient means of identifying novel rare variants that contribute to complex disease