Flood trends along the Rhine: the role of river training

Several previous studies have detected positive trends in flood flows in German rivers, among others, at Rhine gauges over the past six decades. The presence and detectability of the climate change signal in flood records has been controversially discussed, particularly against the background of massive river training measures in the Rhine. In the past the Rhine catchment has been heavily trained, including the construction of the Rhine weir cascade, flood protection dikes and detention basins. The present study investigates the role of river training on changes in annual maximum daily flows at Rhine gauges starting from Maxau down to Lobith. In particular, the effect of the Rhine weir cascade and of a series of detention basins was investigated. By homogenising the original flood flow records in the period from 1952 till 2009, the annual maximum series were computed that would have been recorded had river training measures not been in place. Using multiple trend analysis, relative changes in the homogenised time series were found to be from a few percentage points to more than 10 percentage points smaller compared to the original records. This effect is attributable to the river training measures, and primarily to the construction of the Rhine weir cascade. The increase in Rhine flood discharges during this period was partly caused by an unfavourable superposition of the Rhine and Neckar flood waves. This superposition resulted from an acceleration of the Rhine waves due to the construction of the weir cascade and associated channelisation and dike heightening. However, at the same time, tributary flows across the entire Upper and Lower Rhine, which enhance annual maximum Rhine peaks, showed strong positive trends. This suggests the dominance of another driver or drivers which acted alongside river training

The role of flood wave superposition in the severity of large floods

Abstract. The severity of floods is shaped not only by event- and catchment-specific characteristics but also depends on the river network configuration. At the confluence of relevant tributaries with the main river, flood event characteristics may change depending on the magnitude and temporal match of flood waves. This superposition of flood waves may potentially increase the flood severity downstream in the main river. However, this aspect has not been analysed for a large set of river confluences to date. To fill this gap, the role of flood wave superposition in the flood severity at downstream gauges is investigated in four large river basins in Germany and Austria (the Elbe, the Danube, the Rhine and the Weser). A novel methodological approach to analyse flood wave superposition is presented and applied to mean daily discharge data from 37 triple points. A triple point consists of three gauges: one in the tributary as well as one upstream and downstream of the confluence with the main river respectively. At the triple points, differences and similarities in flood wave characteristics between the main river and the tributary are analysed in terms of the temporal match and the magnitudes of flood peaks. At many of the confluences analysed, the tributary peaks consistently arrive earlier than the main river peaks, although high variability in the time lag is generally detected. No large differences in temporal matching are detected for floods of different magnitudes. In the majority of cases, the largest floods at the downstream gauge do not occur due to perfect temporal match between the tributary and the main river. In terms of spatial variability, the impact of flood wave superposition is site-specific. Characteristic patterns of flood wave superposition are detected for flood peaks in the Danube River, where peak discharges largely increase due to inflow from alpine tributaries. Overall, we conclude that the superposition of flood waves is not the driving factor behind flood peak severity at the major confluences in Germany; however, a few confluences show the potential for strong flood magnifications if a temporal shift in flood waves was to occur

Descriptive epidemiology of limb reduction deformities in Hawaii, 1986-2000.

The relationship between limb reduction deformities and clinical and demographic factors in Hawaii during 1986-2000 were examined using population-based birth defects program data. The limb defect rate was highest with maternal age less than 20 years, and the defect was more common among males. Among racial/ethnic groups, Pacific Islanders and Filipinos had higher rates than whites and Far East Asians

Analysis of the runoff response of an Alpine catchment at different scales

International audienceTo understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km2), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km2), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km2). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas

ENSO impact on simulated South American hydro-climatology

The variability of the simulated hydro-climatology of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) is analysed. Main object of this study is the ENSO-driven variability of the water storage of South America. The horizontal model resolution amounts to 0.5 degree and it is forced with monthly climate variables for 1961-1995 of the Tyndall Centre Climate Research Unit dataset (CRU TS 2.0) as a representation of the observed climate state. Secondly, the model is also forced by the model output of a global circulation model, the ECHAM4-T42 GCM. This model itself is driven by observed monthly means of the global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and the sea ice coverage for the period of 1903 to 1994 (GISST). Thus, the climate model and the hydrological model represent a realistic simulated realisation of the hydro-climatologic state of the last century. Since four simulations of the ECHAM4 model with the same forcing, but with different initial conditions are carried out, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) gives an impression of the impact of the varying SST on the hydro-climatology, because the variance can be separated into a SST-explained and a model internal variability (noise). Also regional multivariate analyses, like Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) provide information of the complex time-space variability. In particular the Amazon region and the South of Brazil are significantly influenced by the ENSO-variability, but also the Pacific coastal areas of Ecuador and Peru are affected. Additionally, different ENSO-indices, based on SST anomalies (e.g. NINO3.4, NINO1+2), and its influence on the South American hydro-climatology are analysed. Especially, the Pacific coast regions of Ecuador, Peru and Chile show a very different behaviour dependant on those indices

Knowing When to Fold\u27em: A Monte Carlo Exploration of Card Shuffling and How Poker Players Can Gain an Advantage

This work demonstrates that the card shuffling procedure commonly performed in casino poker rooms is insufficient for randomizing a deck of cards. We explore this in the context of Texas Hold’em, which has established itself as the most popular form of poker worldwide over the past few decades. We show the degree to which the resulting distribution of the orderings of all 52 cards in the deck after shuffling is not uniform. Rather, any given card may be substantially more (or less) likely to show up as an important card in the subsequent hand. Additionally, we find that the shuffling procedure does not sufficiently separate cards from their starting point; that is, cards are more likely to stay close together after shuffling than they should by chance. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate that Texas Hold’em players can gain an advantage over their opponents by recognizing these deficiencies in the shuffling procedure

Analysis of the runoff response of an alpine catchment at different scales

International audienceTo understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km²), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km²), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km²). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas