Dynamic Procurement of New Products with Covariate Information: The Residual Tree Method

Problem definition: We study the practice-motivated problem of dynamically procuring a new, short life-cycle product under demand uncertainty. The firm does not know the demand for the new product but has data on similar products sold in the past, including demand histories and covariate information such as product characteristics. Academic/practical relevance: The dynamic procurement problem has long attracted academic and practitioner interest, and we solve it in an innovative data-driven way with proven theoretical guarantees. This work is also the first to leverage the power of covariate data in solving this problem. Methodology:We propose a new, combined forecasting and optimization algorithm called the Residual Tree method, and analyze its performance via epi-convergence theory and computations. Our method generalizes the classical Scenario Tree method by using covariates to link historical data on similar products to construct demand forecasts for the new product. Results: We prove, under fairly mild conditions, that the Residual Tree method is asymptotically optimal as the size of the data set grows. We also numerically validate the method for problem instances derived using data from the global fashion retailer Zara. We find that ignoring covariate information leads to systematic bias in the optimal solution, translating to a 6–15% increase in the total cost for the problem instances under study. We also find that solutions based on trees using just 2–3 branches per node, which is common in the existing literature, are inadequate, resulting in 30–66% higher total costs compared with our best solution. Managerial implications: The Residual Tree is a new and generalizable approach that uses past data on similar products to manage new product inventories. We also quantify the value of covariate information and of granular demand modeling

Bimodal Fusion in Audio-Visual Speech Recognition

Extending automatic speech recognition (ASR) to the visual modality has been shown to greatly increase recognition accuracy and improve system robustness over purely acoustic systems. especially in acoustically hostile environments. An important aspect of designing such systems is how to incorporate the visual component Into the acoustic speech recognizer to achieve optimal performance. In this paper, we investigate methods of Integrating the audio and visual modalities within HMM-based classification models. We examine existing integration schemes and propose the use of a coupled hidden Markov model (CHMM) to exploit audio-visual interaction. Our experimental results demonstrate that the CHMM consistently outperforms other integration models for a large range of acoustic noise levels and suggest that it better captures temporal correlations between the two streams of information

Signal Processing

Contains reports on three research projects.Joint Services Electronics Programs (U.S. Army, U. S. Navy, and U. S. Air Force) under Contract DAAB07-71-C-0300U. S. Coast Guard (Contract DOT-CG -13446-A)M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory Purchase Order CC-57

Automatic Speechreading with Application to Speaker Verification

Speech not only conveys the linguistic information, but also characterizes the talker\u27s identify and therefore can be used in personal authentication. While most of the speech information is contained in the acoustic channel, the lip movement during speech production also provides useful information. In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of visual speech features in a speaker veri pound sterling cation task. We pound sterling rst present the visual front-end of the automatic speechreading system. We then develop a recognition engine to train and recognize sequences of visual parameters. The experimental results based on the XM2VTS database [1] demonstrate that visual information is highly effective in reducing both false acceptance and false rejection rates in speaker verification tasks

Longitudinal Effects of Embryonic Exposure to Cocaine on Morphology, Cardiovascular Physiology, and Behavior in Zebrafish

A sizeable portion of the societal drain from cocaine abuse results from the complications of in utero drug exposure. Because of challenges in using humans and mammalian model organisms as test subjects, much debate remains about the impact of in utero cocaine exposure. Zebrafish offer a number of advantages as a model in longitudinal toxicology studies and are quite sensitive physiologically and behaviorally to cocaine. In this study, we have used zebrafish to model the effects of embryonic pre-exposure to cocaine on development and on subsequent cardiovascular physiology and cocaine-induced conditioned place preference (CPP) in longitudinal adults. Larval fish showed a progressive decrease in telencephalic size with increased doses of cocaine. These treated larvae also showed a dose dependent response in heart rate that persisted 24 h after drug cessation. Embryonic cocaine exposure had little effect on overall health of longitudinal adults, but subtle changes in cardiovascular physiology were seen including decreased sensitivity to isoproterenol and increased sensitivity to cocaine. These longitudinal adult fish also showed an embryonic dose-dependent change in CPP behavior, suggesting an increased sensitivity. These studies clearly show that pre-exposure during embryonic development affects subsequent cocaine sensitivity in longitudinal adults

Factors associated with pregnancy attempts among female young adult cancer survivors

Little is known about pregnancy attempts among female young cancer survivors (YCS). We sought to determine fertility preservation (FP), demographic, cancer and reproductive characteristics associated with pregnancy attempts after cancer

Pregnancy attempts among adolescent and young adult cancer survivors

Objective: To examine whether demographic and cancer-related characteristics and factors such as fertility discussion with a medical provider and fertility preservation use are associated with attempting pregnancy after adolescent and young adult cancer. Design: Cross-sectional online survey. Setting: Not applicable. Patient(s): Women with lymphoma, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, or gynecologic cancer diagnosed at 15–39 years from 2004 to 2016 were identified from the North Carolina Cancer Registry and the Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California health care systems and responded to an online survey addressing survivorship concerns, including fertility and reproductive outcomes. Exposures: Demographic characteristics, cancer characteristics, fertility discussion with a medical provider or fertility specialist between cancer diagnosis and starting cancer treatment, use of fertility preservation strategies (freezing embryos or oocytes) after cancer diagnosis. Main Outcome Measure(s): Pregnancy attempt after cancer diagnosis, defined by either a pregnancy or 12 months of trying to become pregnant without pregnancy. Result(s): Among 801 participants who had not reached their desired family size at diagnosis, 77% had a fertility discussion with any medical provider between cancer diagnosis and treatment initiation, and 8% used fertility preservation after cancer diagnosis. At survey (median =7 years after diagnosis; interquartile range, 4–10), 32% had attempted pregnancy. Neither fertility discussion with any medical provider nor fertility counseling with a fertility specialist was significantly associated with pregnancy attempts. However, the use of fertility preservation was significantly associated with attempting pregnancy (prevalence ratios = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 1.31–2.32). Other characteristics positively associated with pregnancy attempts included younger age at diagnosis, longer time since diagnosis, having a partner (at diagnosis or at survey), and having a history of infertility before cancer diagnosis. Conclusion(s): Use of fertility preservation strategies was uncommon in our cohort but was associated with attempting pregnancy after cancer. Ensuring access to fertility preservation methods may help adolescent and young adult cancer survivors to plan and initiate future fertility

What next for preimplantation genetic screening? A polar body approach!

Screening of human preimplantation embryos for numerical chromosome abnormalities has been conducted mostly at the preimplantation stage using fluorescence in situ hybridization. However, it is clear that preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) as it is currently practiced does not improve live birth rates. Therefore the ESHRE PGS Task Force has decided to start a proof of principle study with the aim of determining whether biopsy of the first and second polar body followed by subsequent analysis of the complete chromosome complement of these polar bodies using an array based technique enables a timely identification of the chromosomal status of an oocyte. If the principle of this approach can be proven, it is obvious that a multicentre randomized controlled trial should then be started to determine the clinical value of this technique. In this way the ESHRE PGS Task Force hopes to redirect preimplantation screening from the blind alley to the main road of assisted reproduction

Polar body array CGH for prediction of the status of the corresponding oocyte. Part I: clinical results

Several randomized controlled trials have not shown a benefit from preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) biopsy of cleavage-stage embryos and assessment of up to 10 chromosomes for aneuploidy. Therefore, a proof-of-principle study was planned to determine the reliability of alternative form of PGS, i.e. PGS by polar body (PB) biopsy, with whole genome amplification and microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (array CGH) analysis. In two centres, all mature metaphase II oocytes from patients who consented to the study were fertilized by ICSI. The first and second PBs (PB1and PB2) were biopsied and analysed separately for chromosome copy number by array CGH. If either or both of the PBs were found to be aneuploid, the corresponding zygote was then also processed by array CGH for concordance analysis. Both PBs were biopsied from a total of 226 zygotes from 42 cycles (average 5.5 per cycle; range 1-15) in 41 couples with an average maternal age of 40.0 years. Of these, the ploidy status of the zygote could be predicted in 195 (86%): 55 were euploid (28%) and 140 were aneuploid (72%). With only one exception, there was at least one predicted aneuploid zygote in each cycle and in 19 out of 42 cycles (45%), all zygotes were predicted to be aneuploid. Fresh embryos were transferred in the remaining 23 cycles (55%), and one frozen transfer was done. Eight patients had a clinical pregnancy of which seven were evolutive (ongoing pregnancy rates: 17% per cycle and 30% per transfer). The ploidy status of 156 zygotes was successfully analysed by array CGH: 38 (24%) were euploid and 118 (76%) were aneuploid. In 138 cases complete information was available on both PBs and the corresponding zygotes. In 130 (94%), the ploidy status of the zygote was concordant with the ploidy status of the PBs and in 8 (6%), the results were discordant. This proof-of-principle study indicates that the ploidy of the zygote can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by array CGH analysis of both PB

Contraceptive Practices Among Female Cancer Survivors of Reproductive Age

To compare rates of contraception between reproductive-aged cancer survivors and women in the general U.S. population. Among survivors, the study examined factors associated with use of contraception and emergency contraception