A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence

Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular, include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in commodity inflation. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated— would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the agricultural and food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The results suggest that index fund positions across futures markets have no impact on relative price changes across those markets. The empirical results provide no evidence that long-only index funds impact commodity futures prices.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets:Too Much of a Good Thing?

Long-only commodity index funds have been blamed by other futures market participants for inflating commodity prices, increasing market volatility, and distorting historical price relationships. Much of this criticism is leveled without any formal empirical support or even cursory data analyses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment’s of Traders report. In this research, we make an initial assessment of the size and activity of index funds in traditional agricultural futures markets. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Speculative measures—such as Working’s T—suggest that long-only funds may provide a benefit in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance,

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?

The objective of this report is to re-visit the “adequacy of speculation” debate in agricultural futures markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Traditional speculative measures do not show any material changes or shifts over the sample period. In most markets, the increase in long speculative positions was equaled or surpassed by an increase in short hedging. So, even after adjusting speculative indices for index fund positions, values are within the historical ranges reported in prior research. One implication is that long-only index funds may be beneficial in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging. Attempts to curb speculation through regulatory means should be weighed carefully against the potential benefits provided by this class of speculators.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders

The forecasting ability of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment’s of Traders data set is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) market returns. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, non-commercial traders display a tendency for trend-following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating that those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support the use of the Commitment’s of Traders data in predicting market movements.Commitment’s of Traders, futures markets, forecasting, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets

The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures markets. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, noncommercial traders display a tendency for trend following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support use of the COT data in predicting price movements in agricultural futures markets.agricultural futures markets, commitments of traders, forecasting, prices, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance,

Stress analysis of buried pipes

Pipeline plays a vital role in transporting water, gas and oil from one place to another. Over the years, several failures have been reported in pipeline mainly due to aging (i.e., corrosion). The failure occurs when the stresses in a pipe segment due to applied loads exceed the capacity of the pipe. Therefore, it is important to predict the realistic pipe stress at the design and assessment stages to ensure the safety across the entire lifetime. As significant portion of the pipeline is buried in the underground in most of the occasions, the soil-structure interaction analysis is important as part of the stress analysis. Depending on the location of the network, the pipe will be subjected to varying levels of traffic and pressure loads that need to be accurately determined in order to perform reliable pipe stress estimations. Several pipe stress prediction methods have been developed over the years and reported in the literature. However, these methods are either analytical or empirical based models. The former uses the structural mechanics of the pipe by discarding the complex soil-structure interaction effect while the later fully depends on the experimental results. To overcome these problems, the numerical methods can be used to incorporate the soil-structure interaction effect more efficiently in pipe stress analysis together with traffic and internal pressure loads. In this study, the finite element method is used to analyse the pipe-soil system subjected to external traffic and internal pressure loads. Further, the model developed is used to understand the effect of soil properties, pipeline characteristics, and loading on pipe stress through sensitivity analysis. Finally, the response surface method is used to develop a new pipe stress predictive equation using the results of finite element analyses

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans over 2002-2004

This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the farmer’s position value to crop price changes. For example, when 100% of the crop is priced there is no price sensitivity, which means that changes in price do not affect the value of the farmer’s position. On the other hand, when the amount priced is 0%, the value of the farmer’s position will vary in the same proportion as the change in price. Marketing profiles, therefore, allow investigating the evolution of price sensitivity under each service’s set of recommendations along the marketing window. Marketing profiles also provide other useful information. The number of steps in the profile lines and the location of these steps in the marketing window provide information about timing, frequency and size of recommended transactions. It is also possible to determine from the marketing profile figures how intensely a program uses options markets, since when options positions are open the profile line is irregular. In the same way, LDP/MLG profiles provide information about the size and timing of LDP/MLG claims.Agricultural Finance,

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn over 2002-2004

This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the farmer’s position value to crop price changes. For example, when 100% of the crop is priced there is no price sensitivity, which means that changes in price do not affect the value of the farmer’s position. On the other hand, when the amount priced is 0%, the value of the farmer’s position will vary in the same proportion as the change in price. Marketing profiles, therefore, allow investigating the evolution of price sensitivity under each service’s set of recommendations along the marketing window. Marketing profiles also provide other useful information. The number of steps in the profile lines and the location of these steps in the marketing window provide information about timing, frequency and size of recommended transactions. It is also possible to determine from the marketing profile figures how intensely a program uses options markets, since when options positions are open the profile line is irregular. In the same way, LDP/MLG profiles provide information about the size and timing of LDP/MLG claims.Agricultural Finance,

Diversified actin protrusions promote environmental exploration but are dispensable for locomotion of leukocytes

Most migrating cells extrude their front by the force of actin polymerization. Polymerization requires an initial nucleation step, which is mediated by factors establishing either parallel filaments in the case of filopodia or branched filaments that form the branched lamellipodial network. Branches are considered essential for regular cell motility and are initiated by the Arp2/3 complex, which in turn is activated by nucleation-promoting factors of the WASP and WAVE families. Here we employed rapid amoeboid crawling leukocytes and found that deletion of the WAVE complex eliminated actin branching and thus lamellipodia formation. The cells were left with parallel filaments at the leading edge, which translated, depending on the differentiation status of the cell, into a unipolar pointed cell shape or cells with multiple filopodia. Remarkably, unipolar cells migrated with increased speed and enormous directional persistence, while they were unable to turn towards chemotactic gradients. Cells with multiple filopodia retained chemotactic activity but their migration was progressively impaired with increasing geometrical complexity of the extracellular environment. These findings establish that diversified leading edge protrusions serve as explorative structures while they slow down actual locomotion

Affect, financial decision making, and financial markets

RESUMEN: Los procesos fisiológicos que tienen lugar en el sistema nervioso y que son responsables de las emociones y los sentimientos a menudo son referidos en la literatura del campo científico de la neurociencia como “emociones” –en inglés, affect. Mediante tres estudios empíricos, esta tesis doctoral estudia la relación que se establece entre las emociones y tres aspectos de los mercados financieros. El primer capítulo examina de forma global la influencia de las emociones en el mercado bursátil. Por su parte, los capítulos segundo y tercero abordan dos áreas específicas de dicha influencia. Por una parte, el segundo capítulo estudia la relación que se establece entre las emociones de quienes participan en el mercado bursátil y sus decisiones comerciales. Por otra parte, el tercer capítulo se centra en la perspectiva de empresas cotizadas y documenta cómo influyen las emociones en su política financiera.ABSTRACT: Affect refers to the physiological processes in the nervous system that are responsible for emotions and feelings. This dissertation studies the relationship between affect and three aspects of financial markets. The first chapter examines affective influences in the stock market as a whole. The second chapter zooms in and studies the relationship between market participants’ affect and their trading decisions. Finally, the third chapter takes the perspective of another kind of market participant, the publically traded firm, and studies how affect influences corporate financial policy. These three studies contribute to a broader research effort to develop a structured and comprehensive theory of behavioral finance based on findings from neuroscientific studies. Each study provides novel evidence that specific affective factors exhibit distinct relationships with the cross-section of stock returns, are each relevant to different investor trading decisions, and can help corporations improve their price performance with regards to stock market crashes