Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment

The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program

News Accuracy in Switzerland and Italy

Nearly 80 years of accuracy research in the United States has documented that the press frequently errs, but empirical study about news accuracy elsewhere in the world is absent. This article presents an accuracy audit of Swiss and Italian daily regional newspapers. Replicating US research, the study offers a trans-Atlantic perspective of news accuracy. To compare newspaper accuracy in Switzerland and Italy to longitudinal accuracy research in the United States, the study followed closely the methodology pioneered by Charnley (1936) and adapted by Maier (2005). News sources found factual inaccuracy in 60 percent of Swiss newspaper stories they reviewed, compared to 48 percent of US and 52 percent of Italian newspapers examined. The results show that newspaper inaccuracy—and its corrosive effect on media credibility—transcends national borders and journalism cultures. Nowadays, digitization offers new ways of implementing correction policies. Media organizations need, however, to adapt to these changes and to adapt their structures in particular to new forms of participative and interactive two-way communication

Experimental glomerulonephritis induced by hydrocarbon exposure: A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Much epidemiological evidence suggests that hydrocarbon exposure may induce glomerulonephritis and worsen its course in many patients. The mechanisms are unknown, however, no specific microscopic pattern has been identified, and it has also been argued that hydrocarbon exposure causes tubular damage mainly. Studying experimental animals may best answer these questions, and as no systematic review of glomerulonephritis produced experimentally by hydrocarbon exposure has been performed previously, I found it relevant to search for and analyse such studies. METHODS: Animal experiments having mimicked human glomerulonephritis by hydrocarbon exposure were sought on Medline and Toxnet RESULTS: Twenty-six experiments using thirteen different hydrocarbons were identified. Several human subtypes were observed including IgA nephritis, mesangial, proliferative and extracapillary glomerulonephritis, focal and focal-segmental sclerosis, minimal change nephropathy, anti-GBM and anti-TBM nephritis, and glomerulonephritis associated with peiarteritis nodosa. Glomerular proteinuria was seen in 10/12 experiments that included urine analyses, and renal failure in 5/8 experiments that included measurements of glomerular function. All experiments resulted in various degrees of tubular damage as well. In most studies, where the animals were examined at different times during or after the exposure, the renal microscopic and functional changes were seen immediately, whereas deposits of complement and immunoglobulins appeared late in the course, if at all. CONCLUSION: These experiments are in accord with epidemiological evidence that hydrocarbon exposure may cause glomerulonephritis and worsen renal function. Probable mechanisms include an induction of autologous antibodies and a disturbance of normal immunological functions. Also, tubular damage may increase postglomerular resistance, resulting in a glomerular deposition of macromolecules. In most models a causal role of glomerular immune complex formation was unlikely, but may rather have been a secondary phenomenon. As most glomerulonephritis subgroups were seen and as some of the hydrocarbons produced more than one subgroup, the microscopic findings in a patient cannot be used as a clue to the causation of his disease. By the same reason, the lack of a specific histological pattern in patients with glomerulonephritis assumed to have been caused by hydrocarbon exposure is not contradictive

Difference in Rupture Risk Between Familial and Sporadic Intracranial Aneurysms An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: We combined individual patient data (IPD) from prospective cohorts of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) to assess to what extent patients with familial UIA have a higher rupture risk than those with sporadic UIA. METHODS: For this IPD meta-analysis we performed an Embase and Pubmed search for studies published up to December 1, 2020. We included studies that 1) had a prospective study design; 2) included 50 or more patients with UIA; 3) studied the natural course of UIA and risk factors for aneurysm rupture including family history for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage and UIA; and 4) had aneurysm rupture as an outcome. Cohorts with available IPD were included. All studies included patients with newly diagnosed UIA visiting one of the study centers. The primary outcome was aneurysmal rupture. Patients with polycystic kidney disease and moyamoya disease were excluded. We compared rupture rates of familial versus sporadic UIA using a Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for the PHASES score and smoking. We performed two analyses: 1. only studies defining first-degree relatives as parents, children, and siblings and 2. all studies, including those in which first-degree relatives are defined as only parents and children, but not siblings. RESULTS: We pooled IPD from eight cohorts with a low and moderate risk of bias. First-degree relatives were defined as parents, siblings and children in six cohorts (29% Dutch, 55% Finnish, 15% Japanese), totalling 2,297 patients (17% familial, 399 patients) with 3,089 UIA and 7,301 person-years follow-up. Rupture occurred in 10 familial patients (rupture rate: 0·89%/person-year; 95% CI:0·45-1·59) and 41 sporadic patients (0·66%/person-year; 95% CI:0·48-0·89); adjusted HR for familial patients 2·56 (95% CI: 1·18-5·56). After adding also the two cohorts excluding siblings as first-degree relatives resulting in 9,511 patients the adjusted HR was 1·44 (95% CI: 0·86-2·40). CONCLUSION: The risk of rupture of UIA is two and a half times higher, with a range from a 1.2 to 5 times higher risk, in familial than in sporadic UIA. When assessing the risk of rupture in UIA, family history should be taken into account

Muscle invasive bladder cancer in Upper Egypt: the shift in risk factors and tumor characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Egypt, where bilharziasis is endemic, bladder cancer is the commonest cancer in males and the 2^ndin females; squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the commonest type found, with a peculiar mode of presentation. The aim of this study is to identify and rank the risk factors of muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) in Upper Egypt and describe its specific criteria of presentation and histopathology.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is an analytical, hospital based, case controlled study conducted in south Egypt cancer institute through comparing MIBC cases (n = 130) with age, sex and residence matched controls (n = 260) for the presence of risk factors of MIBC. Data was collected by personal interview using a well designed questionnaire. Patients' records were reviewed for histopathology and Radiologic findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The risk factors of MIBC were positive family history [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.7], exposure to pesticides [AOR = 6.2], bladder stones [AOR = 5], consanguinity [AOR = 3.9], recurrent cystitis [AOR = 3.1], bilharziasis [odds ratio (OR) = 5.8] and smoking [OR = 5.3]. SCC represented 67.6% of cases with burning micturition being the presenting symptom in 73.8%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MIBC in Upper Egypt is usually of the SCC type (although its percentage is decreasing), occurs at a younger age and presents with burning micturition rather than hematuria. Unlike the common belief, positive family history, parents' consanguinity, exposure to pesticides and chronic cystitis seem to play now more important roles than bilharziasis and smoking in the development of this disease in this area.</p

Is telemonitoring an option against shortage of physicians in rural regions? attitude towards telemedical devices in the North Rhine-Westphalian health survey, Germany

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>General practitioners (GP) in rural areas of Germany are struggling to find successors for their private practices. Telemonitoring at home offers an option to support remaining GPs and specialists in ambulatory care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We assessed the knowledge and attitude towards telemedicine in the population of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany, in a population-based telephone survey.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 2,006 participants, 734 (36.6%) reported an awareness of telemedical devices. Only 37 participants (1.8%) have experience in using them. The majority of participants were in favour of using them in case of illness (72.2%). However, this approval declined with age. These findings were similar in rural and urban areas. Participants who were in favour of telemedicine (n = 1,480) strongly agreed that they would have to see their doctor less often, and that the doctor would recognize earlier relevant changes in their vital status. Participants who disliked to be monitored by telemedical devices preferred to receive immediate feedback from their physician. Especially, the elderly fear the loss of personal contact with their physician. They need the direct patient-physician communication.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The fear of being left alone with the technique needs to be compensated for today's elderly patients to enhance acceptance of home telemonitoring as support for remaining doctors either in the rural areas or cities.</p

The activation of eco-driving mental models: can text messages prime drivers to use their existing knowledge and skills?

Eco-driving campaigns have traditionally assumed that drivers lack the necessary knowledge and skills and that this is something that needs rectifying. Therefore, many support systems have been designed to closely guide drivers and fine-tune their proficiency. However, research suggests that drivers already possess a substantial amount of the necessary knowledge and skills regarding eco-driving. In previous studies, participants used these effectively when they were explicitly asked to drive fuel-efficiently. In contrast, they used their safe driving skills when they were instructed to drive as they would normally. Hence, it is assumed that many drivers choose not to engage purposefully in eco-driving in their everyday lives. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of simple, periodic text messages (nine messages in 2 weeks) on drivers’ eco- and safe driving performance. It was hypothesised that provision of eco-driving primes and advice would encourage the activation of their eco-driving mental models and that comparable safety primes increase driving safety. For this purpose, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. All participants performed a pre-test drive and were then randomly divided into four groups, which received different interventions. For a period of 2 weeks, one group received text messages with eco-driving primes and another group received safety primes. A third group received advice messages on how to eco-drive. The fourth group were instructed by the experimenter to drive fuel-efficiently, immediately before driving, with no text message intervention. A post-test drive measured behavioural changes in scenarios deemed relevant to eco- and safe driving. The results suggest that the eco-driving prime and advice text messages did not have the desired effect. In comparison, asking drivers to drive fuel-efficiently led to eco-driving behaviours. These outcomes demonstrate the difficulty in changing ingrained habits. Future research is needed to strengthen such messages or activate existing knowledge and skills in other ways, so driver behaviour can be changed in cost-efficient ways